Typical Capy results: I'm 75% ATS in the playoffs thus far (3 out of the 4)...and yet I still dropped units trying to get o/u's and weighting my bets wrong.
Absolute travesty that the GB TT over didn't come in -- they dominated, but due to James Jones dropped TD and Mike McCarthy's ridiculously conservative 2H play-calling, I take a big hit. Oh well.
Today's games are tough as hell! Tomorrow is gonna be the moneymaker. But have to go with my gut:
Ravens/Steelers Over 37, -110 (Matchbook) 1x
There will not be much successful running in this game, so time is not coming off the clock. Both teams are going to get yards in chunks when they get them, and there could also be a return score or two.
Ravens +3.5, -107 (Matchbook) 1x
I hate hate hate going against Big Ben in a big game, but just think the Ravens are overall stronger top to bottom, and if you're getting over 3, gotta grab it. But worried about Flacco vs. Ben.
Biggest play in a while. I believe the clock should strike midnight for a Seahawks team that was mediocre or poor for most of the season. Yes, Hasselbeck played incredibly well last week, but this defense is much more stout than the Saints'. Bears have had an extra week to get healthy and get ready. I'm not going to overthink and find reasons Seattle should compete. Cutler is definitely a wildcard (which one are you going to get?) but I'm banking on him stepping up in his first playoff game as a Bear.
Obviously a -3 or -4 in a teaser is more ideal, as I could see a back-door cover, but this thread is ATS only!
Not as confident in this one, but this is the play:
Pats -9, -105 (5Dimes) 2x
Listen, the Pats have heard the talk all week and they've been chomping at the bit do rub the Jets' faces in it. Will it be easy like last time? NO. Jets will come up with different disguises and will get occasional pressure on Brady. But doesn't matter, Brady is locked in and has too many weapons for Jets to cover.
As for Jets' O, they have to run it and they have to stay inside the numbers with short routes for Sanchez, they need to eat the clock. This is only going to work occasionally. Final should be like 31-20. Good luck!
The Bears are a decent team, but they're somewhat of a fraud of a #2 seed. Their offensive line is not good, and this week they get to face a terrific pressure defense w/ a terrific secondary. Is Cutler up to the challenge? On the other side, Rodgers is humming like never before, and with an improved running game, hard not to see them putting up enough points to cover. Special teams is a wildcard and a concern for Pack backers, but other than that, I love this pick.
Jets +4, -107 (5Dimes) 3x
How can you not be impressed by how the Jets took out the top two QBs on the road in the past two weeks? Now Big Ben is another animal entirely and I can see him making some big plays, and yes, Polamalu is back (though clearly not 100%), but these Jets are on a mission. That defense can play many different styles effectively, and it's hard for me not to see this as a tight game. The Pitt defense is rock solid against the run but vulnerable in the pass game, and the Jets have enough big-play WRs (including one very motivated one in Holmes) to get their licks in.
Jets/Steelers Under 38.5, -109 (Matchbook) 2x
Without balance, I expect Sanchez to have trouble at times, and on the other side, sure, Big Ben is a playmaker but the Jets' D is absolutely rolling right now and playing together as a top unit. This feels like a 17-13, 20-16, etc. kind of game to me.
Fukk it, let's go out BIG, I need to get these units to 20, dammit!
Well, you've all read a million writeups already, so I doubt I have much to add. I'm ultimately just going with overall talent. It's a bitch to go against the experience of the Steelers and the ridiculous big-game-ness of several of their key players. However, you can't deny how well the Packers have been playing lately, and the key to me is that they have enough incredible players on DEFENSE to make life hard for Big Ben, especially behind a weakened O-line. He will pull some plays out of his ass, but I think he's going to get hit plenty and that his guys will usually NOT be open when he breaks out of the pocket.
On the other side, I can see Dick Lebeau messing with Rodgers for a little while, but this guy is so sharp right now that I don't see him staying down long. With all the playmakers he's got -- AND a SUBPAR Polamalu -- he won't be held below the mid-20s, whereas I think the Steelers might.
This is one of the toughest SB's to cap in a long time, so I can't see too many confident bettors on either side, but I'm rolling with the Pack. This would be a one- or two-unit play max, but I'm doing seven for the fukk of it because it's the Super Bowl and I need to get to 20 units in this damn thread.
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