3DW Sports Betting Line Moves – NFL By Doug Upstone
As I mentioned in this spot a week ago, the numbers for the opening week have had a great deal of exposure and it challenging to determine what is public money and what is smart money. In either case the activity has been brisk as expected and here is an early week look at the NFL for everyone’s lid-lifter for 2010. LINE MOVES will check back on Friday to see what has occurred during the week in the NFL and have college football for tomorrow.
NFL- Minnesota at New Orleans Thursday 8:30 EDT NBC With Brett Favre still getting into game shape physically and mentally and not having the same weapons at his disposal like he had in the NFC title game, football bettors have taken the total down to 48 from opening 51. Look for Minnesota to attack the Saints greatest defensive weakness which is right up the gut. With Drew Brees and New Orleans anxious to prove they deserved to be Super Bowl champs, it would seem the Under is a hard wager to make.
NFL- Atlanta at Pittsburgh 1:00 EDT FOX (Both sides and total) With no Ben Roethlisberger or backup Byron Leftwich, online sports betting football fanatics have been clicking the side and total for this matchup. Dennis Dixon is an exciting choice for Pittsburgh, yet how will the Steelers react once they get in the red zone, which is why the total has been lowered to 38 (started at 40.5) and Atlanta has gone from Pick to 2.5-point favorite as of today. The Falcons are 15-5 UNDER as a road favorite of three points or less.
NFL- Cincinnati at New England 1:00 EDT CBS The Patriots have lost two defensive starters in the preseason and will be younger and less skilled, which would explain why they have gone from six-point Foxboro favorite to -4.
NFL- Green Bay at Philadelphia 4:15 EDT FOX (Both sides and total) Green Bay is on the receiving line of a lot of public adulation, with Aaron Rodgers on more magazines and front page of websites than Kim Kardashian these days. The Packers were +1 road underdogs when oddsmakers released the opening week contests, but a steady diet of green has Green Bay now as field goal faves despite 0-6 and 1-5 ATS record in Philly most recently. The total has also ballooned two points to 47.5.
NFL- San Francisco at Seattle 4:15 EDT FOX San Francisco is the most settled squad in the NFC West and Seattle is scrambling to find five offense linemen that have a heartbeat and no physical maladies. This is the first time the 49ers are favored in Coffee-Town since 2002, having been shoved from 1.5-point pick to 3.
Totals Only
Denver at Jacksonville 1:00 EDT CBS With Denver and Jacksonville lacking offensive explosiveness, those seeking football betting answers have lower scoring affair in mind, dropping the total from 41.5 to 39.5 at most wagering outlets. Of note is the Jaguars are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less the last two seasons with average total score 42.4 points.
Arizona at St. Louis 4:15 EDT FOX The quarterback matchup of Derek Alexander and rookie top pick Sam Bradford has drawn a collective yawn and football bettors have taken the total south to 39 after the original figure was 41.5, with two other presumed starters under center. The Cardinals are 6-0 UNDER in road games versus division opponents.
Dallas at Washington 8:20 EDT NBC This rivalry conflict can only hope to live up to what Boise State and Virginia Tech just did on the same field in Maryland. This contest had a 41.5 number for starters and has fallen downward to 39. With Dallas a 3.5-point favorite, the Boys are 12-4 UNDER when favored against the Redskins.
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Money Line Nugget Indianapolis is 23-0 on the ML in regular season games they didn’t tank since the middle of 2008 campaign. Totals Nugget Cleveland and Tampa Bay are combined 24-4 UNDER facing each other’s division opponents as they meet Sunday. First Half Line Nugget Jacksonville is 2-11 against the first half line as a favorite vs. the first half line the last two seasons.
The NFL grades their talent differently than college football. Here we have scouts using a sophisticated grading system that has very specific details relating to the particular player. The information breaks down this way, blue, red and purple for grades and I utilize it in this manner: Blue is worth three points, red worth two points and purple earns a single digit.
When a team has a blue player, this means this individual is a proven All-Pro caliber player, generally year after year. This group would include a Drew Brees, Chris Johnson and a Larry Fitzgerald along with many others at all the different positions on the gridiron.
A red player is someone who would be the next level down, a very good player who is capable of elevating his game to All-Pro status with the right circumstances. Others that fit this profile are overachievers like a Donald Driver of Green Bay or the Giants defensive tackle Justin Tuck, who maximizes their abilities.
The purple player is an above average player, who definitely contributes to the success of his team, but lacks the star quality to be a difference-maker week-in, week-out.
NFL talent scouts also hand out grades for average and below average players, however winning in the National Football League is all about having play-makers and putting them into the right positions to achieve success.
Similar to the college football article I write, this is something I’ve worked on for years and use a variety of sources to uncover useful material for this piece. The sources are extremely reliable and consistent. I’d like to point out no personal views are used in determining a NFL players rating, just the interpretation of the material. All 22 positions on the field are graded, along the place-kickers, punters and return specialists like a Josh Cribbs, who can make a meaningful impact on a contest.
Also, no rookies are included in the study, since it would be only speculation on how they would actually perform. Similar to the college football piece, I’ve tallied what all the so-called experts think who should finish where and they are listed in the division standings.
Let’s take a look at the NFC South as an example, the home of the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. Here is the breakdown of the four teams and at the top is total points based on division strength.
NFC South -81 points New Orleans (1) - 26 Carolina (3) – 23 Atlanta (2) – 21 Tampa Bay (4) – 11
Analysis –The Saints have blue-chippers like Brees and OG Jahri Evans, but where the strength of this team is the other 10 quality starting players that led them to be true Super Bowl champions. The entire off-season has been about enjoying being champs, but Sean Payton is preaching no letdown. Carolina’s higher figure comes from quality offensive linemen and their dynamic duo at running back with DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart. Quarterback and weakening defense are both issues for the Panthers. Atlanta is liked by many football insiders and don’t forget, no NFC South champion has repeated in its eight years of existence, are the Falcons ready to fly? The whole fire John Gruden because he wants too much power has certainly worked out in Tampa Bay.
NFC East -93 points Dallas (1) – 29 New York Giants (2) – 22 Philadelphia (3) – 21 Washington (4) -21
Analysis – Football’s most balanced division continues to roll along, just with a bit more uncertainty. Dallas should be the best club again with 4-blues, 6-reds and 5-purples, proving their depth is consistent across the entire team. The Giants are the only team in the division without a blue player, however are loaded with nine reds, showing they still have an upside if a number of them have above average seasons. Philadelphia figures to be weaker at quarterback and Washington stronger, with Donavan McNabb changing uniforms. With McNabb angry (inwardly) and coach Mike Shanahan wanting to again prove to his former employer they made a mistake in firing him, the Redskins could be very dangerous.
NFC North -86 points Minnesota (1) – 34 Green Bay (2) – 27 Chicago (3) – 18 Detroit (4) -7
Analysis – With Brett Favre, Minnesota is the most talented squad in the NFC. No question Favre makes them better and coming so close to making it to Super Bowl only adds motivation for team trying to show the world they destined for greatness. Green Bay is expected to be hot on the Vikings heels with Aaron Rodgers and formidable offense. The defense was a huge surprise last season, but can Charles Woodson still play at such a high level in his 13th season and how much will Johnny Jolly’s loss hurt DC Don Capers crew? Word out of Chi-town is the Bears have to make the playoffs or no love will be given to Lovie Smith, having to find work somewhere else. The mess Matt Millen left behind will take more time to fix than the city’s auto industry.
NFC West -68 points Arizona (2) – 24 San Francisco (1) – 22 St. Louis (4) – 13 Seattle (3) -9
Analysis – With no Kurt Warner, many believe the balance of power will shift towards San Francisco in the NFC West, though Arizona still has a great deal of firepower offensively, it’s a matter of how quickly Derek Alexander and reshuffled offensive line comes together. The Cardinals will also be breaking in a number of new defensive players. Alex Smith finally showed everyone he is the 49ers best signal caller, which happened to correspond by offensive line offering protection and having weapons on the perimeter to throw to. After 5-1 record in the division a season ago, San Fran feels ready to take charge. Seattle and St. Louis fit the bill as also-rans, with the Seahawks having more average players on their squad and the Rams having a few players that could blossom into stars, yet with more than enough others slots to fill.
AFC East -81 points New York Jets (1) – 28 New England (2) – 24 Miami (3) – 18 Buffalo (4) -11
Analysis – In the Chinese calendar, this year is known as the Year of the Jet. OK, not really, but head coach Rex Ryan and enough prognosticators are picking New York to show up in Dallas as the AFC Super Bowl representative. It is well justified with the likes of blue-rated players like Derrelle Revis and Nick Mangold and QB Mark Sanchez has stellar supporting cast with Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards on the flanks. Coach Ryan will continue to push the blitz button and has another strong corner in Antonio Cromartie. Bill Belichick and New England are trying to rebuild on the run and though this team is not a true Super Bowl contender, they still have Tom Brady and a developing crew of youngsters. Miami overachieved in 2008, came back to reality last season and wants to think they are poised to be the upstart in the AFC. The hiring of Chan Gailey as head coach in Buffalo has drawn as much excitement as a bran muffin.
AFC North -97 points Baltimore (1) – 36 Pittsburgh (2) – 28 Cincinnati (3) – 18 Cleveland (4) -15
Analysis – The Baltimore Ravens appeared loaded. The Ravens have the highest ranking in the NFL with better than average players and they have a whopping dozen “red” players. (No other team has 10) With Ben Roethlisberger out four games, this year’s more talented version of Baltimore should win the division, with its sight on bigger goals. Even with Big Ben, Pittsburgh doesn’t have as many studs as the Ravens; but should still be a serious postseason contender if they don’t bury themselves in a hole without Roethlisberger. Cincinnati made the playoffs last year and needs to open up the offensive playbook, after having one of the most conservative attacks in the league. The defense lost a few very good players to injury and could give even a better accounting in 2010. Carson Palmer needs career resurgence to get the ball to Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. A four-game winning streak at the end of the season brought hope to Cleveland, however a new offense will take time to implement and there are more new faces on defense.
AFC South -75 points Indianapolis (1) – 25 Houston (2) – 21 Tennessee (3) – 19 Jacksonville (4) -10
Analysis – Anybody want to bet against Indianapolis to not win the AFC South? The Colts were the winningest team of the decade at 115-45, with Peyton Manning the one constant. Indianapolis epitomizes the salary-cap era of football, have stars where you to need them and fill in the rest with good lower salaried employees. It’s hard to find fault with a team that was 14-0 before giving away last two games for losses and made it to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, at least three games should have been losses and the most important parts of the offensive coaching staff have been changed. Houston knows they have to make the playoffs this year and a defeat of the Colts might be enough to propel them over the top, if the running game improves and the secondary is more consistent. Tennessee is somewhere in the middle, not rebuilding, but not a finished product. How they play in games decided by seven or less points will determine final record. With a losing record, a small fan-base and ordinary players manning several spots on the roster, coach Jack Del Rio needs a miracle.
AFC West -66 points San Diego (1) – 22 Denver (3) – 18 Oakland (4) – 14 Kansas City (2) -12
Analysis – Just a few years ago, San Diego arguably had the best 53-man roster (includes practice squad members) in the NFL. Somebody was injured, the drop off was hardly noticeable. Not anymore and the Chargers can be thankful they can mask these weaknesses playing in such a dreadful division. Denver might have a few more players than either Kansas City or Oakland, but last season’s 2-8 close to the year might be a view of what is to come in Broncos-land. The Chiefs are in the early stages of recovery and need a few more stimulus packages (good drafts) to be back in division contention. The Raiders are forgettable until they prove otherwise.
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3DW Sports Betting Line Moves – NFL
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