[Dexter]

This will be my year long thread for the NFL. Here are this years Autobets:

A1: Fade any team who just won a nationally televised game in the following week (no play if a bye week follows the nationally televised win)

A2: Fade any team who just beat the Superbowl Champion Saints in their next game.

A3: Play any home team off a road win where they scored 10-29 points vs a team that just scored 28-42 points in their last game. (no play if a bye week factors in)

A4: Play any home dog getting 7-13 pts when the home dog scored 6-27 points in their last game - the road favorite must be coming off a game in which they were the home favorite and won. (no play if a bye week factors in)

[Tommy_de1st]

I'll be the first to wish you Best Of Luck this season

[Tommy_de1st]

Btw, I like A1 Seems to me that this fukks don't wanna play when the game is not nationally televised

[Dexter]

Btw, I like A1 Seems to me that this fukks don't wanna play when the game is not nationally televised

A1 was a system i created around week 2 of last season right here on SBR. I deleted last years spreadsheet out of anger after a poor post season where i lost the 15units i was up after the regular season. got greedy, and pissed my winnings away. but A1 was about 60-65%....all the other systems were about 50%. i have tweaked them slightly with the bye week filters.

[Dexter]

-this seasons plays will be 1-5 units with maybe a handful of larger plays then that. prob 2-3x will be my avg size play.

-i will play no more then 5 games on the Sunday day games. i will most likely have 1 play on each nationally televised game (b/c i'm a degenerate deep down)

[peterpan19]

GL

will post my picks here too if I have some

[Dexter]

GL

will post my picks here too if I have some

absolutely - group thread.....anyone feel free to post and share their plays/analysis.

[walshy83]

Those are some pretty good idea's there. Im so pumped NFL season is basically here. Enough baseball, even tho i'm a Red Sox fan.

[JVP3122]

-this seasons plays will be 1-5 units with maybe a handful of larger plays then that. prob 2-3x will be my avg size play.

-i will play no more then 5 games on the Sunday day games. i will most likely have 1 play on each nationally televised game (b/c i'm a degenerate deep down)

Hey, Dexter, is this your first season posting plays for NFL? I'm looking for someone to tail while I'm learning (kind of like what I'm doing with TA in baseball) and if you've got some past results I can look at it'd be great.

[tothehoop3]

GL with this Dex, I follow your baseball thread closely and look forward to making money w/ you this football season!

[officepoolguy]

I like your trends...do you have any insight into why they may work? I assume that with system A1 and A2 there is a let down after the big win. I wrote an NFL Strategy Guide E-book discussing the psychology behind some common trends (i have a psych background) so just curious if you have a theory on why they work. Check out my book and let me know what you think.

[Dexter]

I like your trends...do you have any insight into why they may work? I assume that with system A1 and A2 there is a let down after the big win. I wrote an NFL Strategy Guide E-book discussing the psychology behind some common trends (i have a psych background) so just curious if you have a theory on why they work. Check out my book and let me know what you think.

A1 and A2 are exactly what you said - letdown angles.

the a3 and a4 systems i created with a friend maybe 10 years ago....theyve had some great seasons and some avg but i like the theories.

a3 - winning on the road in the nfl is always an impressive thing, and the fact that you scored 10-29 pts suggests you didnt blow your load. while the opponenent did overachieve with a 28-42 pt game. they likely will come back to the league avg, esp on the road.

a4 - ive always loved playing home dogs in a league where parity is the norm...road fav is off a home win and might look past this home dog who also scored in a normal range last out....may be sitting on a 30+ pt game

will check out the book over the weekend

[Dexter]

Hey, Dexter, is this your first season posting plays for NFL? I'm looking for someone to tail while I'm learning (kind of like what I'm doing with TA in baseball) and if you've got some past results I can look at it'd be great.

i had a season long thread in the nfl last year here at sbr....not sure if you can still find it. think i finished around 53-55% and down 10 units after imploding in the postseason....i was up 15x after the regular season and then went heavy in the playoffs and lost the winnings.

not making that mistake this year

[kobefanatic]

good luck

[taxman]

Wish you lots of luck on your autofade angles...I do like fading the team that just beat the champs!

[Dexter]

play number one for me will be my annual opening game fade of the SB Champs - they'll be staring at their new rings all game. i dont buy points so will wait for the line to get up to 7 and take the vikings.

[filter15]

ice litte conditions

[mcbogo]

good luck dexter. i will tail

[darkenergy]

Best of luck Mr. Dex.

[phillydon215]

hey dex u capping the game today?

[Dexter]

hey dex u capping the game today?

no - i dont bet preseason

[MJT1212]

Good Work.

[Jakoby87]

Good this year!!!!!

[Dexter]

some thoughts about week 1:

-kinda likin the packers/eagle game to put up some points week 1.

-same with the bears/lions. martz is in da house.

-the cards are a road favorite with their qb situation?

-i may continue my betting of the titans off a strong finish from last year - new qb in oak may take some time to get acclimated to a new team.

-i am not betting on any team in week 1 with a brand new qb. no reason to with so many games on the board.

[Hazious]

good luck this year fellas

[taxman]

some thoughts about week 1:

-kinda likin the packers/eagle game to put up some points week 1.

-same with the bears/lions. martz is in da house.

-the cards are a road favorite with their qb situation?

-i may continue my betting of the titans off a strong finish from last year - new qb in oak may take some time to get acclimated to a new team.

-i am not betting on any team in week 1 with a brand new qb. no reason to with so many games on the board.

Dex I really am liking the OVER in the Chic-Det game...both games way over last year..last 2 in Chic have gone OVER...and this is Chicago first week 1 home game in 5 years...Det O is much improved I see some points here also

[david09]

Good luck this year Dexter.

[jquest]

Best of luck this season and I look forward to seeing your picks.

[Dexter]

Thur 9/9:

(2x) vikings +4.5

[Addicted2Action]

dex ive been betting your A1 auto religiously since you posted that last year and from what i remember it did very well, great angle, good find

[Dexter]

Sunday 9/12:

(2x) giants -7
(2x) over bears 42.5
(1x) broncos +3
(2x) over colts 46.5
(3x) over eagles 47

[Dexter]

Monday 9/13:

(1x) ravens +3
(1x) chiefs +5.5

[therber2]

Good luck Dexter. Ravens, Giants, and Broncos all look good to me.

[Addicted2Action]

against you on the g-men..with you on kc and balt.....gl dex

[spal2811]

dont like the broncos but the others look good....gl