Another lengthy break, another apology by me. The good news is we may only have to go through this two more times seeing how after this writeup I only have two more divisions to break down. Hopefully I can stay on top of these a bit better though and close this out sooner rather than later. This week brings us to the NFC East, which I see overall being a bit weaker than usual this year. Win totals and division odds are taken from Sportsbook.com yet again, here's how I see things going in the East:
Dallas Cowboys
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +110
Dallas had themselves a pretty successful 2009 season, the highlight of which may have been beating the at the time undefeated Saints. After finishing the regular season with an 11-5 record, the Cowboys took care of business at home against the Eagles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before falling victim to the Vikings. Dallas was very solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 2nd in yards per rush attempt on offense, and 6th in yards per pass attempt. On defense, they weren't quite that good but still above average, ranking 9th in yards per pass attempt and 11th in yards per rush attempt. The biggest issue Dallas had was turning their offensive yards into points however, as they were 8th worst in the league at scoring efficiency.
This coming season, I have high hopes for the Cowboys as I believe they have a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. I expect the running game to be just as good as last year if not slightly better with Felix Jones expected to get more touches this coming season, and Tony Romo should have a much better second WR in Dez Bryant than he had in Roy Williams last year. I think these two changes lead to the Cowboys finishing out their drives for touchdowns more than last year, and their offense very much reminds me of the Saints going from 2008 into 2009 in that sense. Some people are concerned about the Cowboys losing Flozell Adams at Left Tackle, however I believe that this loss will barely have an impact if at all. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys are a very similar unit to last year with no changes I would consider major. Their numbers at the end of the season will probably be in the same area as where they wound up last year, and as the #1 defense in scoring efficiency in 2009 I feel very good about that. The Cowboys have all the pieces for a deep playoff run, but despite a somewhat tough schedule won't completely run away with the division. Worst the Cowboys finish is 10-6, I think 11-5 is very doable again though.
Predicted Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5
New York Giants
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +275
The 2009 Giants started the year on a very good note, opening up with a 5-0 start before collapsing down the stretch and finishing the year 8-8. Their rushing game took a big step back as they were only 17th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and their defense let them down by ranking below average in both yards per rush attempt and pass attempt, while also ranking dead last in defensive scoring efficiency. Basically, it was way too easy to score points on them.
The Giants' brightest spot in 2009? The passing game, which should be just as good if not better in 2010 with both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks starting for the Giants at WR, providing Manning with a couple of reliable options to keep drives alive. At RB, Brandon Jacobs should be able to at least slightly improve from his dismal 3.7 yards per carry in 2009, but whether he'll return to his 2008 form remains to be seen. The offensive line for this team is also as good as ever, leading me to believe we'll be seeing a few more points put on the board by the Giants in 2010. On defense, the big loss of the offseason for the Giants is Antonio Pierce, which is definitely a blow. However, their defensive line looks like it should be much better this year with a couple of their players getting healthy finally, and the arrival of rookie Jason Paul-Pierre who is drawing rave reviews thus far. The Giants also added Safety Antrel Rolle this offseason, which should bolster their secondary and shore up their pass defense a bit. The 2010 Giants look to be much closer to their form beginning the 2009 season than they were towards the end, and if this team can stay healthy this year and a few things break their way they could give the Cowboys a run for their money. I'm not entirely convinced that's how things play out though, and we likely see the Giants fall prey to their brutal schedule in the end.
Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY
Philadelphia Eagles
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +275
The 2009 Eagles are a tough team to judge looking back on as they finished 11-5, yet benefited from a very soft schedule. The only team they beat that had an above .500 record was the Falcons, and that was in a week in which the Falcons were decimated by injuries. Not only that, but every single loss the Eagles had was to a team with an above .500 record. So, I have no choice but to wonder if this team was really as good as their record indicated. Offensively, their numbers were slightly above average both passing and rushing the ball, but on defense their pass defense was 4th best in the league while their rush defense was ranked 14th.
2010 is the start of a new era in Philadelphia as the Eagles have a new QB at the helm, Kevin Kolb. Kolb started two games in 2009 for the Eagles, dominating the Chiefs' poor pass defense in one game and getting picked off three times against the Saints in the other. I have a feeling that the 2010 season will be full of ups and downs such as this, but overall with the same weapons around him as McNabb had, the passing numbers should be about the same as last season. There's been a big change to the running game as well as Brian Westbrook is gone, turning the rushing game over to LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell. With Westbrook limited in 2009 this is again a change that shouldn't show up too large in the stats however, and the Eagles should also have similar rushing numbers with this duo as they had last year. Overall I think the offense may have a bit more trouble closing out drives and won't put up quite as many points as last year, but that should be about the only step back we see from them this coming season. On defense there are a lot of new faces as well, but the most notable change may be the return of MLB Stewart Bradley. The Eagles did lose Sheldon Brown this offseason however, which you expect will hurt their pass defense at least a little bit. This defense isn't quite as much about the personnel as it is the style however, as they tend to play a similar style to the Saints in the sense that they constantly crank up the pressure to try and generate turnovers. When all is said and done however, the Eagles face a MUCH tougher schedule than they did in 2009, and it's going to be a tough first year in the Kevin Kolb era. I'll give them a slightly optimistic prediction with a .500 record, however finishing slightly worse wouldn't surprise me.
Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: UNDER 8.5
Washington Redskins
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +600
The Redskins really struggled in 2009 posting a dismal 4-12 record, which led to them making some much needed changes. Mike Shanahan comes in as the new coach for the Redskins this season, but the most notable offseason move has to be the acquisition of QB Donovan Mcnabb from the Eagles. However, I'm not a huge believer that this move will significantly help the Redskins. Mcnabb has always had some issues with accuracy, completing a very similar percentage of passes compared to former QB Jason Campbell, and this coming season he won't have the level of talent on offense surrounding him on offense as he did in Philadelphia. The only benefit I really see coming from this is that Mcnabb will turn the ball over less than Campbell did, but the team should be right around average in yards per pass attempt just as they were in 2009. At RB, Clinton Portis is still listed as #1 on the depth chart, with Larry Johnson backing him up in what will likely be a running back by committee situation. I don't expect Willie Parker to contribute much as I believe he doesn't have much left to offer in his career. The running game may be slightly improved compared to their ranking of 27th in 2009, however Larry Johnson probably doesn't bring a whole lot to the table that will offer a viable solution. The improvement at the offensive line alone should account for any improvement however as they drafted LT Trent Williams in the first round.
On defense, the Redskins were 15th against the pass and 10th against the run in 2009, decent numbers but definitely room for improvement. The addition of Jim Haslett as defensive coordinator will likely help with this improvement, however I'm not convinced the Redskins have the necessary personnel to do so. There is a lot of speculation surrounding the future of Albert Haynesworth, whether or not he's present on this defense will make a big different. The Redskins have acquired DE Adam Carriker however, and it'll be interesting to see how he performs returning from spending the year on the IR in 2009. While all these offseason moves are a good first step to returning the Redskins to legitimacy, it won't be enough for the team to compete this year.
Great writeup. Dallas still has a poor OL for pass protection and Wade needs to tell Garrett to run the ball more for them to be a SB team. Barber/Jones/Choice should combine for 30-35 rushes a game for the team to be successful. I think Jacobs regresses even further than last season and Philly and Wash have too many question marks for me to predict their success. Eagles have gotten a bunch of great talent in the past 2 drafts, but they seem to play to the level of their competition. Shannahan is a huge upgrade over Zorn, but the team is quite old and not many playmakers on either side of the ball.
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Division Predictions and Win Totals: NFC East
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