[Justin7]

Just curious... How many of you will bet a lot of Super Bowl props?

[pavyracer]

Just curious... How many of you will bet a lot of Super Bowl props?

I'm betting Randy Moss to catch a subpoena at the superbowl.

[seaborneq]

I always do. Plenty of them.

[clcoyle93]

yup...I will be in Vegas and this is a fun way to play the Superbowl.

Hopefully we will get a post with peoples suggestions as to the best plays.

GLA

[Checkerboard]

I'm guessing but I'd think the majority of prop wagers are by people who want to make the game more fun to watch. Myself, I usually don't watch the game because of all the ads. I'll have it on, but not watch it.

Having said that, I'll keep an eye out in the forums for somebody posting a prop that catches my eye.

For instance, I can recall several prop wagers posted by bigboydan and, although I don't know what his official record might be with regard to props, He seems to have generated some wins for me in the past!

[Justin7]

Last year, I priced every prop in Las Vegas and the offshore. My spreadsheet hit over 1000 lines for that one event

I'm a long-term winner in props. I'm toying with sharing my whole prop odds sheet, although I wouldn't post it until Sunday after I'm done betting. There's still some value on Sunday, but it's not nearly as good as cracking openers on props.

[mofome]

Last year, I priced every prop in Las Vegas and the offshore. My spreadsheet hit over 1000 lines for that one event

I'm a long-term winner in props. I'm toying with sharing my whole prop odds sheet, although I wouldn't post it until Sunday after I'm done betting. There's still some value on Sunday, but it's not nearly as good as cracking openers on props.

i hope you choose to share, id love to see what you've got.

[McBa1n]

hester returning a kickoff for a touchdown +1000 last year was a kind prop for me. Superbowl props are excellent value if the game goes to script.

[SBR Lou]

Share away, Justin.

I certainly don't have any system or formula for my prop selection. I'm just the type of gambler who likes to bet on the coin toss.

[AZZY]

I'd like to see ideas regarding game props others use too. I enjoy props but hardly ever seem to get it right. For example, I say, "that's it... NE wins the coin toss for 5 units! I'm psyched..." Then NE loses the coin toss.

Here's a game prop I'm considering for this weekend (same logic or lack thereof would apply for SB too). But I need advice from others here -- is this a smart or dumb play (it's not really a system -- it's just either a good or bad idea)?

Let's say I make the following three prop wagers, each for 1 unit (3 units total):
If GB wins by 1-6 points at 7/2 odds then I win 1/2 unit (i.e. risk $15; win $17.50)
If GB wins by 7-12 points at 3/1 odds then I break even (i.e., risk $15; win $15)
If GB wins by 13-18 points at 9/2 odds then I win 1-1/2 units (i.e., risk $15; win $22.50)

Obviously there are 5 possible W/L outcomes to the 3 wagers:
GB wins by 1-6... I win
GB wins by 7-12... I break even
GB wins by 13-18... I win
GB wins by >18... I lose
NY wins by any amount... I lose

However looking at it from a units risked perspective (rather than just a W/L outcome):
The most I could lose is 3 units
The most I could win is 1-1/2 units... hmmm, I might be answering my own question here....

I tried the same type of bet back in week #9. In my mind, I was certain Detroit was going to beat Denver and I was thinking they might even beat Denver big time, so I forwarded something like 4 or 5 sequenced wagers covering any Detroit win up to 30-35 points or so -- there was one thing that killed me -- Detroit ended up winning 44-7 (by 37) and I lost the entire wager!

So anyway, I'm forwarding this thought/question in this thread because it's a prop kind of bet that might or might not be considered for the SB -- I hope my post isn't too far off topic in this thread -- if it is sorry.

But anyway, does anyone think there's anything to this type of prop -- or is it just an excercise in futility? The end result is 50-50 statistically and just like any wager could win or lose -- what I like about it is that it's attempting to cover more bases than just having to go against 1 number... what I don't like about it is the risk differential (for lack of a better term) that the most I can win is 1-1/2 units while the most I can lose is 3 units.... hmmmm

Maybe I'lll just put 3 units on the coin toss...

AZZY
Everything Is.

[Justin7]

Azzy,

multi-way margin of victory props are usually terrible to bet. they have high juice, and books know how to set those correctly.

The two easiest types of props to beat are matchups (e.g. stats on two plays with a spread), and multi-sport props.

[Wrigley]

Ill play some but dont get carried away betting alot of $$$ them