What teams look improved from 2009? What teams look worse? Based on coaching, drafting, free agency, scheduling, situational factors, etc. here is the list I've got. Feel free to add.
AFC East:
UP: Miami This one is easy. Prior to '09 the schedule, inflated '08 record (point ratio value) and the likelihood of not repeating a +DD turnover ratio made them an automatic candidate for decline. Now all these factors are neutral, plus they have improved at WR and LB, and get RB Brown back from injury. Next step: Allowing fewer points in the 4th quarter.
DOWN: Jets This one is NOT easy. They will move down only because Maimi is better, Brady (NE) is one year farther removed from injury, and they have ZERO depth to protect from injuries.
AFC North:
UP: Baltimore The schedule is easier than Cincy. WR play should finally improve with Boldin. This of course assumes a healthy Ed Reed and Ray Lewis.
DOWN: Pittsburgh For obvious reasons.
AFC Central:
UP: Tennessee??? By default, as Jacksonville has no home fans and Indy had a mediocre draft.
DOWN: Houston On the one hand, this is a good team, especially on offense. On the other hand, the secondary took a free agency hit, and the draft was one without immediate impact. Add to that their 1st ever prime time schedule full of traps and this looks like a team that will not meet increased expectations.
AFC West:
UP: KC The disclaimer is that we are not fans of Cassell and the HC may be a two and done. The moves to add Weis and Crennel are good ones and Berry is solid. We pick them over Oakland because we are not Tom Cable fans, and SD is already at the top.
DOWN: Denver We like the talent of the draft, but do not like the subtraction of a #1 WR for a raw rookie who played in an anti-pass scheme, and also note that the blocking scheme is changing. It wouldn't surprise us if they finished 2nd in this Division however.
NFC East:
UP: Washington McNabb means the turnover ratio will be solid. The whole offensive scheme should result in 5+ more points per game, enough for them to win a few they lost in '09.
DOWN: Philly Think GB after Farve left. Rodgers struggled at first, then rebounded in year #2. Ditto Kolb here, as the Eagles have plenty of talent but need a year to get all the new working parts in alignment.
NFC Central:
UP: Lions The Bears could be the up team if Martz helps Cutler out, and Peppers and Urlacher team up to save Lovie's job, but the Lions have Suh and Best. As for total wins, don't count on a massive increase as their secondary is below COLLEGE LEVEL, meaning they are always suseptible to a come from ahead loss.
DOWN: Tie - GB and Minny Minny wins this honor if Farve retires, but even if back the team is no better than last year. They lost their 3rd down pass catching RB. The bye is EARLY, meaning Farve must play weeks 4-16 without rest. As for the Packers, this was a team with FEW needs, and yet they barely addressed any. They needed 2, not 1 OL. They drafted zero cornerbacks! The GM said they have a lousy Punter. The facts (and GM) are aware they have been horrible in the return game. With this being the best year EVER for ready to go return specialists, GB failed to draft any.
NFC South:
UP: Tampa While Atlanta is our pick to win the Division, Tampa is the more improved team. They hit draft needs. The issue remains QB, with young Freeman is still turnover prone, a carryover from the post Bill Snyder years at Kansas St.
DOWN: New Orleans Can you say Super Bowl hangover? The roster is essentially the same which is great, but then again, why didn't they address the front 7 on defense?
NFC West:
UP: SF Seattle had the better draft, but I don't like the way the schedule starts. SF is learning how to win, and despite a rather average defensive group the staff is good and can get them beyond 8-8.
DOWN: Arizona This is unfortunate, as Leinart deserves a chance and the staff is good. They added nice talent as well. It's not a stretch that the Cards win the West. Still, losing Warner and Berry to retirement, and Dansby and Boldin through free agency and trade can not make a team better.
NFC West.... SF is the team to watch here. I have been a seahawks season ticket holder and the draft was great, but the OL is not fixed by anymeans. Still no running game to speak of, Hass will be lucky to play 12 games this year. Whitehurst is a step up from Seneca but I don't see them winning the West.
As for the use of WE, years ago I have had the opportunity to write reports and articles about college and pro football. The WE is a throwback to those days, although this has always been a one person, 95% recreational venture.
I do it all for fun now, and only occasionally offer up my reports in a more formal way. But just consider me a football fan (I work in HR, not in sports). There is no WE.
I'll continue to share my thoughts and occasional writings once we get closer to the start of football.
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Division by Division - Up and down teams
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