[pokernut9999]

Actually, I use almost all stats in my picks. They are a far better indicator of future success than W/L.

I dont use either thank you

[Thomas]

Using recent stats (4 games) these teams are so dead even its scary and Cincy is at home so there should be some value with them. Mentally they're out of this game imo, absolutely nothing to play for, this is a Div game with playoff implications for the browns and one may think they want to play spoiler here, I doubt it. The only team they help here by beating the Browns is Pitt so now you have to wonder who do these guys hate more ? I think it's Pitt and I think it's a lot easier to play soft ball here, like last week, giving minimal effort to get things over with and at the same time tighten the screws on a hated rival. Why in the world would these guys put out any kind of real effort now, week 16, when they've showed absolutely no heart at all in recent games. Grab the 2.5 if you can and take the more motivated team, I will be. good luck whatever you choose

[Louisvillekid1]

This is not a trap game, Cincy may win (i doubt it) but no way is this a trap game. Cleveland wants this game REAL BAD on the verge of a playoff berth and maybe even a Divsional Championship. The Browns will bring their A game, also they only scored 8 points last week, cinci defense sucks (can't believe they still get so much action, they are not 8 points better then anybody) Cleveland will be in the 30's in this one.

[The Seer]

The first ten years I bet on pro football. I was a "stat" guy. Those ten years I lost more than I won. I finally started realizing I needed to look more closely why I had lost each specific game. In pro football, the worst team is really not that much worse than the best as compared to college. One team might have a few more dynamic players than the other and alot of the times these games may still be decided by 10, 7, or even 3. It's not like OKlahoma vs. Duke. Stats can be very misleading. Since coach's livelyhoods are at stake on a game by game basis, they'll sometimes make decisions to run the clock out when they could have scored, etc. to secure the win not beat the spread as a favorite. You have to take this in mind when laying on heavy favs. Another thing that ways heavily in my capping more than stats is focus, motivation, etc. Being an former athlete at the professional level, I should have realized it sooner. I have the last 5 years. There are some games where you aren't as motivated or focused for whatever reason. If you have just come off of an emotional game, there is a natural letdown by players and even coaches. It affects your preparation and everything. There are games where you didn't play your best and get beat. The next week you have a rival and you are extremely focused and have prepared as best you can to prove something. There are some games you have circled at the beginning of the season. The main key in the NFL in my experience is putting your finger on the pulse of a team and knowing when to pull the trigger. In the NFL, if you can find a team that will have an emotional letdown against a focused team, then you have a play depending if you think you have value in the line you get. Sometimes, you can have a play if you just bet against a team that will have a natural emotional letdown. Why else would a team like say, Seattle, who has better "stats" coming off a home win, go on the road and get beat by a lesser "stat" team like Carolina. That being said, there are coaches who know this and do their best to keep their teams level emotionally. Belichick and Dungy are the two best I've seen. Belichick comes up with someway to motivate his team the best he can every week. Dungy is always level. They never over celebrate and they tend to refocus and correct themselves after subpar performances. As good as they are they have letdowns too. Keep this stuff in mind while capping.

Also,When in doubt go against everyone else. The books aren't in business for nothing. If more people are coming up with reasons for putting down on team A and it looks like hardly anybody is on team B, you would be more profitable in the long run with team B.

Some of the best situations you can get is take a team that just came off of a grueling, emotional win at home against a division rival and the next week they go on the road as a favorite to an out of conference opponent. You'll find some team will buck the trend but there are few.

Also, go against "watercooler" teams in these type spots. These are teams that everybody is talking about around the watercooler at work. Teams that have been winning and everbody is on them. They pull out a dramatic victory and everyone at work and on the sport shows are talking about it. They are at home the next week. Should be an easy win for them, they have such a great offense. They are playing a team that has been mediocre. The QB is dating a fine pop singer. Everything is hunky dorry. Should be an easy victory. Not necessarily. They may be playing a hungry division foe that will come in off a loss and be totally focused and hanging on in the playoff chase. Does Dallas - Philly sound familiar. I'm a Cowboys fan but knew better than take them in that spot.

Learn from your losses and take note if anything else.
Everybody's talking about Cleveland. Everybody's down on Cincy. I'm not saying Cleveland can't do it. Just be careful here. Good luck everyone.

One more thing, don't get caught up in the "they don't have anything to play for vs. they are playing for the playoffs" garbage. These are very prideful and egotistical athletes. They'll play hard more times than not to improve their own stats.

[SexyMit]

I do go against the public alot. That is very true do you think vegas would be in business if EVERY heavy favorite won like they are suppose 2. Hell no they wouldn't. I was on Phili this past weekend. I also took Baltimore against New England a couple of weeks ago. THere is NO WAY Baltimore can even stay close in this game they can't score. THat is all I heard, they have no offense. Well guess what they did that game the public lost. I know exactly what you are talking about. Just like Oregon and Arizona a month or so ago. Everyone was all over oreegon there is noway Arizona can hang with Oregon. Well DIXON got hurt.... hmm a little fishy if you ask me. They lost outright... so yes I do think games are rigged and fixed. How do you think Vegas has stayed in business for so long.

[SBR Lou]

Funny you mention Baltimore Mit, I also remember Cleveland playing them this year and nobody thought the Ravens pathetic offense could keep it close. I stayed away from that one because it was in Baltimore and I felt the Ravens could keep it close if not win outright. And after some FG controversy they ended up losing in OT but still..

I think these two teams do match up well, particularly I think both offenses will be able to get into a rhythm barring key turnovers, I'm going to lean Cleveland for the first half but I think anything can happen in the second half.

[McBa1n]

Cinci is an intelligent team? You just spent an evening arguing that most professional athletes were stupid and used Chad Johnson as evidence. Marvin Lewis and Romeo Crennel are widely considered to be two of the worst coaches in the league. Hell, the Bengals had 10 guys arrested last year. How does any of this add up to intelligent football teams?

I'm not sure where you got your information on Romeo, perhaps you're reading Cle market editorial - but anyone that follows football closely can see that he has done a great job without a heluva lot (especially defensively - holes in the O line, lack of depth at receiver, short on NFL calibur RBs) the past 2 years. Even if they lost many games last year - they were still very competitive and played pretty damn good football.

[outdrawed]

Just like Oregon and Arizona a month or so ago. Everyone was all over oreegon there is noway Arizona can hang with Oregon. Well DIXON got hurt.... hmm a little fishy if you ask me. They lost outright... so yes I do think games are rigged and fixed. How do you think Vegas has stayed in business for so long.

lolz

So, uh, are you saying Dixon was faking being hurt? Or that somebody was paid to go try to injure him (because there's no way a QB would get hurt in a soft game like football otherwise), or maybe there was some sort of mob agent up in the light towers who sniped out Dixon's legs?

Maybe Vegas wins because they set bad lines and the public fawns over the favorite anyways? You know, like this week with Cleveland/Cinci.

[pokernut9999]

Hardest week to win is the last week of the NFL.

[Furt]

definitely like the Browns in this one but I would lay off. A couple of years ago a bad Browns team beat an 8-7 Bengal team that was on the verge of the playoffs. The Bengals will be in the role of the spoiler and I expect a close game.

[SexyMit]

lolz

So, uh, are you saying Dixon was faking being hurt? Or that somebody was paid to go try to injure him (because there's no way a QB would get hurt in a soft game like football otherwise), or maybe there was some sort of mob agent up in the light towers who sniped out Dixon's legs?

Maybe Vegas wins because they set bad lines and the public fawns over the favorite anyways? You know, like this week with Cleveland/Cinci.

I didn't say faking but I just thought that it was funny everyone was all over oregon and they lost outright. and something just happened to dixon that same game. I don't know if he was suppose to get hurt I just thought that it all happening in the same game was kinda funny.

[pokernut9999]

I didn't say faking but I just thought that it was funny everyone was all over oregon and they lost outright. and something just happened to dixon that same game. I don't know if he was suppose to get hurt I just thought that it all happening in the same game was kinda funny.

Dixon was injured the game before and was shaky all week if he was going to be 100%.

[SexyMit]

I didn't know that. I apologize... Well then back to I still think that there is games that are fixed without a doubt.

[harsh506]

the line for me moved to -3(+105) WHY??????

[outdrawed]

Hardest week to win is the last week of the NFL.

I only just started betting NFL games in the middle of this year, and I am pretty sure my bets will be few Week 17.

[outdrawed]

I didn't say faking but I just thought that it was funny everyone was all over oregon and they lost outright. and something just happened to dixon that same game. I don't know if he was suppose to get hurt I just thought that it all happening in the same game was kinda funny.

I know you didn't say faking. You didn't say anything except that they were fixed, without forming any intelligent thought as to how it's possible Dixon being injured could be a fix in any way.

[Thomas]

theseer, interesting writeup, as you said stats alone are tough go in the betting market there are however people who flourish in this industry by stats alone. Myself I agree you need more than just stats which I always start with and then get a read on those situations you touched on before making your decisions.

One more thing, don't get caught up in the "they don't have anything to play for vs. they are playing for the playoffs" garbage. These are very prideful and egotistical athletes. They'll play hard more times than not to improve their own stats.

I somewhat disagree with your thoughts on this, you said. Another thing that ways heavily in my capping more than stats is focus, motivation, etc. Isn't that exactly what we have here no motivation vs lots of motivation. Many athletes are prideful as you said and for sure there is some ego involved but I believe that players WHO avg maybe 4-5 years in the NFL are more likely to just want to stay healthy which = no motivation more often than not.

Last nights game is a good example in the no motivation dept St Louis who played pretty physical ball come up way short against the steelers, obviously not everyone had "given up" but many had. Bulger comes to mind immediately, you could actually see it his eyes with that please let this be over look of bewilderment as Pitt relentlessly pounded him, no motivation left when he needed it.

As I pointed out here in my first post this game is statistically pretty well even, the next thing I looked at was motivation and what I see is a team hungry for a shot at the playoffs who still are in mathematical contention for a div title, this to me = motivation. Cincy on the other hand are playing out the string here and eager to put this year behind them IMO, their uninspired effort against a mediocre NFC team in SF as 9 point chalk was visual evidence.

I believe this is a great motivational spot and anyone that thinks Cincy has any pride didn't see them last week in "garbage time"

[hanco21]

I'm confused. Do you disagree that Seattle is the better team?

What about UCLA vs BYU -6.5 tonight or better yet Cincy -11 vs So. Miss. If you looked at it on paper everyone was on the favs. but the dogs covered. Easy money today,.

Love Cincy in this spot tomorrow,

[curious]

-3

versus Bengals in Cincinnati...

Jamal Lewis is like a bowling ball, he should run over the Bengals, Derek Anderson is a stud, am I missing out on something other than the road factor?? Some key injuries here?

The Bengals cover the spread. Every book out there has their lines set up to discourage betting on the Bengals. I have a dime on the Bengals +3 1/2.

[Buckeye]

Cincinnati has repeatedly found ways to lose in 2007. I'm not sure how you can take a team like that, while Cleveland is the complete opposite in 2007. I expect the same results today as Cincinnati will find another way to lose while Cleveland will roll on with a victory over their rival. Any team that loses to a pathetic 49er team with a third string QB no one has ever heard stinks. GO BROWNS!!!

[Irish Lumberjack]

Brown are 6-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3, 7-0 ATS as a fav, 5-2ATS on the road and 4-1 when playing a div opp. Cinn doesn't have a winning ATS in and cat.

I'm Going browns

[ShamsWoof10]

I like the Bengals today too... "Curious" got +3.5..? Holly f*ck you brain dead fools he bets at BJO and Pinnacle has them at +1... HELLOOOOOOO.???? Most of you like the Browns to boot so this tells me HAMMER THE BENGALS!!!

[SBR Lou]

Guys I hopped on Cleveland 1st half -1 earlier this week, I think there's some fair points being made about the game, but I really like the -2.5 I saw hit bookmaker the other night..... so content with my first half bet, good luck fellas/ladies

[walkingdude2]

Weather isn't going to be good in Cinn. Cle already shut out a team last week in bad conditions.

Cle is fighting for a playoff spot. They need this win to stay above Tenn and stayed tied with Pitt.

Cle -2.5

[curious]

Every book out there had their lines set up to discourage bets on the Bengals.

Don't tug on superman's cape crackheads.

[SBR Lou]

Well, the Browns had a botched snap and missed an easy FG early in game, then were in easy FG range again and went for it on 4th and 1 and got stuffed, and Derek Anderson is just playing awfully.

But giving credit to Cincy for their gameplan and how they've been able to rush the ball.

[curious]

Well, the Browns had a botched snap and missed an easy FG early in game, then were in easy FG range again and went for it on 4th and 1 and got stuffed, and Derek Anderson is just playing awfully.

But giving credit to Cincy for their gameplan and how they've been able to rush the ball.

Soooooo....you are saying I was right???

[SBR Lou]

I am saying the results were in your favor, but that it easily could have swung the other way without some of those early Cleveland mishaps and miscues. But yes, you turned out right.

[The Seer]

No, it's not a trap.. Get in on the browns early.. There is no way the bengals defense will be able to stop the browns. The worst that could happen is the browns win by 3 points and you get your money back. Wouldn't doubt if the line moves to 3.5 or 4 in the next couple days.. GL

No way, huh?

[Mr KLC]

Don't look now, but Cleveland's driving to take the lead. A touchdown and 2 point conversion, and GULP, they covered the 3 points!

[The Seer]

I somewhat disagree with your thoughts on this, you said. Another thing that ways heavily in my capping more than stats is focus, motivation, etc. Isn't that exactly what we have here no motivation vs lots of motivation. Many athletes are prideful as you said and for sure there is some ego involved but I believe that players WHO avg maybe 4-5 years in the NFL are more likely to just want to stay healthy which = no motivation more often than not.

Last nights game is a good example in the no motivation dept St Louis who played pretty physical ball come up way short against the steelers, obviously not everyone had "given up" but many had. Bulger comes to mind immediately, you could actually see it his eyes with that please let this be over look of bewilderment as Pitt relentlessly pounded him, no motivation left when he needed it.

As I pointed out here in my first post this game is statistically pretty well even, the next thing I looked at was motivation and what I see is a team hungry for a shot at the playoffs who still are in mathematical contention for a div title, this to me = motivation. Cincy on the other hand are playing out the string here and eager to put this year behind them IMO, their uninspired effort against a mediocre NFC team in SF as 9 point chalk was visual evidence.

I believe this is a great motivational spot and anyone that thinks Cincy has any pride didn't see them last week in "garbage time"

So what about Cincy's lack of motivation today? How did that work out?

[ShamsWoof10]

HELLOOOOOOO.????

You are more then right crazy the Browns moved the ball at will and could have easily blown out the Bengals but as Herm would say....

WE BET TO WIN THE GAME... HELLOOOOOOOOO..... WE BET TO WIN THE GAME!!!!!!