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Division Predictions and Win Totals: AFC South
We move on to the AFC South this week, which has been mainly dominated by the Colts the past few years. Teams like the Titans and Texans look to be on the rise this year, but can either improve enough to beat out the Colts for the division? Here's how I see things breaking down in the South this year:
- Houston Texans
- Win Line: 8.5
- Odds to win division: +350
Houston finished 2009 with their first winning season in team history, barely missing the playoffs with a 9-7 record. However, Texans followers were left with the feeling that the season could have been so much more. On a number of occasions the Texans gave away games, whether it be by a last minute costly turnover, or by a missed field goal. It's pretty safe to say that this team was better than it's record. The success of this team came mostly from it's passing game, as it's rushing game took a big step back in 2009. Steve Slaton has since lost the weight he put on in hopes of getting his 2008 form back. Foster also looked to be an explosive back with potential towards the end of the season, and we'll probably see an improved running game out of the Texans in 2010 that has solved it's fumbling problems.
The defense for this team is a bit of a concern early on with Cushing suspended for four games, however I don't think his absence will doom this team and a 2-2 start is very reasonable. CB Kareem Jackson should help this pass defense take a step forward from where it was last year, and if Mario Williams can stay a bit healthier this season he could have more of an impact than he did last year. What I think hurts this team in the end is the brutal schedule they face. I believe this team will be improved from where it was last year, but they're going to have to get the job done against much tougher teams. Given their tendency to give games away last year, it's hard not to see that happening again this season, though I doubt it happens as often. I could see the Texans finishing with anywhere from 7 to 11 wins, making any total bet pretty dangerous. Their +350 odds are definitely worth considering for the division title as it presents decent value, but it all boils down to whether or not you think they can close out games better this season. I think in the end the schedule will be too tough, and we'll see the Texans falling just short yet again.
Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY
- Indianapolis Colts
- Win Line: 11
- Odds to win division: -160
The 2009 Colts cruised to a 14-0 start before mailing in the final two games of the season to try and rest up their starters. They finished with a 14-2 record, and came up short in the Super Bowl in a loss to the Saints. All around the Colts were a very strong team, with a well above average defense and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. The biggest flaw one could find with this team would be the rushing attack, which ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. This really wasn't a problem for the team however as Manning was able to keep the chains moving passing the ball without much problem.
When you look at this team going forward in 2010, there's no denying that this lack of a rushing attack still exists. The Colts didn't really add anyone to help give themselves a more explosive running game, and as a result probably will rely mainly on the pass yet again next year. The Colts will have WR Anthony Gonzales returning from injury this season though, giving them even more depth in an already deep pool of wide receivers. Dallas Clark should also have another productive season at tight end, and this passing game will be as dangerous as ever. On defense, a lot of the same players are in place, although it is notable that Bob Sanders is coming out of the offseason healthy for the first time in a while. It probably isn't practical to expect him to play all of the games this season given his history, but I'd expect he'll play in more than just the two he played in last season. The defense should be at a similar if not slightly higher level than it was last year. My biggest concern for the Colts this coming season is the fact that they face a much tougher schedule than last season. The Titans and Texans should be improved, and I think we may see a 4-2 division record this season as opposed to their stellar 6-0 record last season. Out of division presents four to six tougher games as well, so I don't see another run at perfection like last season. This is still probably the strongest team in the AFC South though, and I think the Colts will snag the division title again by a narrow margin.
Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: NO PLAY
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Win Line: 7.5
- Odds to win division: +900
The Jaguars mustered a 7-9 record in 2009, despite being very poor statistically in a couple of key areas. Jacksonville found themselves ranked dead last in pass defense, although part of that could be attributed to playing in the same division as the Texans and Colts. The Jaguars were also well below average in yards per pass attempt on offense, which negated their great rushing attack and made them the 8th worst team in the NFL in PPG. Combine that with the fact that they were 6th worst in the NFL in points allowed per game, and it's quite surprising their record didn't turn out worse.
2010 brings back a very similar offensive unit for the Jaguars, as Garrard is still the QB for the team and the offense will likely run through RB Maurice Jones-Drew yet again. Aside from Jones-Drew, this offense is still lacking the weapons to be explosive though, and I expect another season where this team struggles to put points on the board. The Jaguars had a couple of big additions on defense this season, acquiring DE Aaron Kampman and MLB Kirk Morrison. However, the Jaguars also released DT John Henderson, and did their best to fill that hole drafting rookie Terrance Knighton. What we'll see out of Kampman remains to be seen as he's coming off of ACL surgery, and Knighton has some pretty big shoes to fill and likely will struggle to his first year in the league. The Jaguars still have a huge weakness in their secondary this season as well, and will probably struggle against the pass yet again. I don't think the Jaguars can beat the Texans both games this year, and I think we're looking at a best case scenario of a 2-4 division finish for this team, with 1-5 much more likely. The Jaguars drew a bit easier of a schedule than the rest of their division opponents, but in the end I don't think that this will be a successful team this year and they'll likely find themselves in last place in the division yet again.
Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7.5
- Tennessee Titans
- Win Line: 8.5
- Odds to win division: +350
The Titans are a very interesting team to try and figure out. After a sluggish 0-6 start, the Titans posted an 8-2 record under QB Vince Young. Throwing out those six games that Collins started, the Titans were the #1 rushing team and #11 passing team, putting up the 8th most PPG in the NFL. Tennessee's main struggle was on defense, as they were 28th against the run and 13th against the pass.
2010 is tough to predict for the Titans, partially due to Chris Johnson's contract situation. Johnson is currently making less base salary than his backup, and appears ready to hold out because of it. Whether or not Johnson misses any kind of time obviously is a huge factor in the success of this team, but for this writing I will assume the Titans work something out with him and he's back with plenty of time to spare. WR Kenny Britt showed flashes of potential in 2009, and in 2010 he'll hopefully avoid the Sophomore slump and give Young somewhere to throw the ball. The offense should function similarly to 2009 though, with it running through Johnson and Young being used sparingly to get things done with his arm. On defense, first round draft pick Derrick Morgan should provide a fairly immediate help to the unit, and Cortland Finnegan should return healthy this season to help shore up the pass defense a bit more. The defense should take a step back towards it's 2008 form, however I doubt it reaches quite that level again. The Titans need a lot to go right to win the division, and I just don't think that they have what it takes to get the job done.
Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY
2010 Projected AFC South Standings:
Colts: 11-5
Texans: 9-7
Titans: 9-7
Jaguars: 6-10
AFC South Plays:
Jaguars UNDER 7.5
Colts to win division: -160
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Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
