I like the idea of StackinGreen joining u & Riggs - any consideration?
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Great writeup and much of the same reasoning I am leaning towards GB. Figure I'll wait and see where number goes and try for best price. Good luck and thanks for the time you put into your pick and logic behind it.Comment -
Out of curiosity, what do you mean "joining" or "collaborating"?
Will you and Riggs have the same exact plays? Like discuss it with each and other and post the same exact plays? That's an actual collaboration. But what happens when you guys are on opposite ends like the GB-CHI game last week? In a collaboration, that play just doesn't even get mentioned, for obvious reasons related to "collaboration".
Or do you guys just share the same thread, and post your own plays? That's not really a collaboration. That's just sharing a thread and still working separately.
Just curious, is this an actual collaboration or not?Comment -
Max- Would you wait to put this bet in since you don't see it going to 3 and hope that the line moves closer to -1 or pk? or lock it in at -2.5 now?
Thank you
DanComment -
I respect the other guys, but I can speak most to my conversations with Max. Riggs has his followers/colleagues and it appears rightly so.
I'm curious why "I've gone tout" or got labeled. What's funny is that once that happened a select few tried to bring the doom but it didn't change my cappin' --- or the results.
I'm not that old, but I learned lessons a long time ago in dealing with highs and lows. That's why I'm successful at staying away from either, for either can be dangerous.
In any case, I'm up for anything. I admit I did get excited, but on a run like that, wouldn't you be?
Best to all
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About an hour till showtime Max, hope to hear from you tonight...Comment -
As of now its just Riggs and I. I'm confident the both of us will do some major damage next year.
No problem, we got this
It's difficult to predict line movement. Although I don't think it'll go up to 3. I would wait a couple more days, see if it changes at all. If it drops down to 2 then take it. If, after a few days your book still has 2.5 then go ahead and take it. It might stay constant all the way to gametime. As of now the action is split 50/50 in Vegas.
Just did Awesome hearing from you! I'm looking forward sharing out success with the rest and working with you at riggsplays.com
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thanks max- great to hear you on riggs' show as well!Comment -
Thank you for the nomination! As far as the units go, I didn't put any suggested units out for this game, because I haven't done that for any of my games throughout the year. The one thing I suggest is to keep it reasonable. Bet what you can afford to lose and don't go to crazy. If I were to rate this pick out of a possible 5 star, I'd go with a 4 star rating. That being said, bet accordingly.Comment -
Just wanted to move this analysis up, before it gets lost in the thread.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Line: 2 44.5
PICK: GREEN BAY -2.5 (-110) Score Prediction: 27-17
There are several factors that I looked into when I capped this game. I’ll address many of them in this final write-up of the 2010-2011 NFL season
Spread I’ll address the spread briefly. Many, including myself were surprised to see the Packers opening up as favorites. Following Pittsburgh’s win vs. the Jets, I predicted the line to be Pitt -1. Most books opened with the Packers being favored by 2, it quickly rose to 2.5 after getting hit early. I don’t think we’ll see this spread at -3 and here’s why. This would be a huge monetary disaster for Vegas if GB -3 wins by only 3. Vegas would get no $$ from the actual game outcome. All bets would push so they wouldn’t even be able to collect on the juice. Currently, GB has a slight favor with 52% of the money going on the Packers side. Furthermore, I think you’ll see this spread dip down to 2/1.5/1 as the game approaches. My inclination is that you’ll see a huge Pittsburgh following sprout up in the days leading to the Superbowl. Here’s another thought that I considered. If the oddsmakers had Pittsburgh as a favorite, then the majority of people would bet Green Bay + the points for obvious reasons. Maybe they want people to think “You can’t go wrong taking Pittsburgh as the underdog + the points in the Superbowl with all the Superbowls they have won!” If that’s the case, I’m not falling for it. As I’ll show in this write up Green Bay -2 is the clear choice here. The current line is 2.5, as I said before I think it'll slightly fall as the game approaches. So you can wait a bit or if you can no qualms about the current spread then go ahead and take the -2.5.
Common opponents that GB and Pittsburgh faced during the regular season: Pittsburgh and GB had 5 common opponents during the regular season. I did not include the playoffs. These five being the Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Pats, and Falcons. Green Bay went 2-3 in those games. GB averaged 21.4 points per game in those contests while giving up only 16.2. All three of the GB losses were by 3,3, and 4 points. Pittsburgh went 3-2 in those games. Pitt averaged 20.0 points per game in those contests while giving up 21.6 points. Losses were by 5 and 13 points. Even though Pitt has the advantage in wins, I give the edge to GB, because of the point differential. Pitt actually has a negative point differential for those games.
Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense Green Bay comes into this game averaging 24.2 points per game, which was good for 10th in the league during the regular season. Defensively, Pittsburgh comes in with the lowest points per game allowed at 14.5. So where do we find an answer as to which side will be victorious? First, let us look at Green Bay’s offensive line protection vs. Pittsburgh’s ability to rush the QB. During the regular season Green Bay’s offensive line gave up 38 sacks on the season which ranked them at a modest 11th most allowed in the league. They were 21st in the league in QB hits allowed, a much better ranking than the sacks allowed. Being ranked 11th in that department is not a terrible ranking, and is only of little concern. Average that out and it comes out to GB giving up 2.2 sacks per game and allowing 3.9 hits on the QB. All this during the regular season. Pittsburgh on the other hand excels at bringing pressure on the QB. They finished the season ranking #1 with 48 sacks. What helps Green Bay is that Rodgers is a mobile quarterback who is illusive at times and can scramble for key yards in important situations. Further I looked at each teams’ performance in the playoffs this year. I found that Green Bay’s offensive line has actually done a better job of protecting Rodgers in the playoff games. In the three playoff games the Packers have only given up 5 sacks and have allowed 11 QB hits, which average out to be 1.6 and 3.6 respectively, much better than the 2.2 and the 3.9 they posted during the regular season especially since you consider each opponent in the playoffs had a good pass rush. I don’t believe the Packers will find much success rushing the ball against the Steelers. Pittsburgh rush defense ranks1st in the league. The Jets and the Ravens found that out to be a very tough task. But here is where I think the Packers have a huge edge. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay pass attack. In my honest handicapping opinion I believe GB has the best four wideouts in the league. Led by Gregg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. The outcome of this game will depend largely on the Packers ability to spread out Pittsburgh’s defense and have Rodgers ability to read the defense and pick his poison with his quick releases to the outside and yards after the catch. I went through Pittsburgh’s schedule and I found two offensive opponents that I think closely resemble Green Bays. Those being New England who put up 39 points and New Orleans who scored 20 points. Like Brady and Brees, Aaron Rodgers has a great ability to recognize the blitz and get rid of the ball quickly, which will be key to Green Bay’s ability to move the ball downfield and score points. New England and New Orleans both used several wideouts to space out Pittsburgh’s defense and attack their secondary. In those games Brees threw for 305 yards while completing 77% of his passes! All of this success while practically having no success from the running game. The top three WRs for the Saints caught at least six passes each. Two weeks later Brady had just as much success throwing for 350 yards while completing 70% of his passes. Look for the Packers to attack the Steelers in similar fashion. I really believe that the Packers and Saints offense is very similar. The Saints being more identical to the Packers while the Pats utilize their TEs more.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay Defense Green Bay finished the regular season second in sacks. I foresee this being a big problem for Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense. It’s been well documented that Pittsburgh offensive line is banged up. Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey sustained a high ankle sprain in the win over the Jets. He has already vouched we will play in the Superbowl, that of which I don’t doubt. That being said I don’t believe he will be 100%. High ankle sprains are more severe than a regular ankle sprain and even with two weeks off he will not function at the highest level. Add in the fact that he is going up against an exceptional NT in B.J Raji. This will not bode well for Pittsburgh’s interior line, which has been influx the entire season. Raji has been an absolute stalwart of late. He had 7 sacks in the regular season. For a nose tackle playing a 3-4 defense that is pretty outstanding. Another guy on the Green Bay defense that doesn’t get talked about much is defensive end Cullen Jenkins. He missed a few games towards the end of the season, but aside from the missed action he has played very well both in pass rush and against the run. He finished the regular season with 7 sacks while only playing 11 games. We all know about Green Bay’s other playmakers with sack specialist Clay Matthews, CB Charles Woodson, CB Tramon Williams, and safety Nick Collins. Rookie CB Sam Shields has also greatly impressed this postseason and may be the defensive X factor. Big Ben will likely try and target him in an attempt to avoid Tramon Williams and Woodson. Here’s where I think Pittsburgh’s offense will have the most trouble. When Big Ben drops back to pass, he has always liked to extend plays and hold on to the ball a second or two longer than most quarterbacks. With Green Bay’s pass rush it will be Big Ben’s demise. I foresee him being sacked multiple times, or worse coughing up the ball. If he rushes his throws in an attempt to get rid of the ball then the ball hawking secondary of GB will be there for the turnovers. GB has 6 INTs this postseason! Pittsburgh is aware of Green Bay’s ability to rush the passer so they will undoubtedly try to establish a running game with Rashard Mendenhall. Pittsburgh finished the regular season with a respectable 11th ranking in yards per rush and rush yards per game. Green Bay’s rush defense on the other hand was less than formidable ranking 16th in rush yards allowed, while giving up 4.7 yards per carry. (This includes QB scrambles) That being said, the Packers rush defense has really stepped up this postseason and I look to them to keep Mendenhall in check. In the three games the Packers have played this postseason they are only giving up 3.5 yards per carry and a total average of 70 yards allowed on the ground. They have not allowed a run over 14 yards. That’s a pretty impressive defensive output!
Special Teams Both teams have struggled in their return coverage in the past, so there is no edge here. Of late, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay has done an excellent job of pinning opponents deep inside their own territory. Head Coach Mike McCarthy even credited the win last week due to their punter and the Special Teams.
Intangibles This is one distinct advantage that I cannot deny Pittsburgh. This is Pittsburgh 3rd Superbowl appearance in the last 6 years. Big Ben along with many of the same players have already won the previous two they were in. Big Ben is as clutch a QB as I have seen play. He has a knack for making a big play at the right time and continually gets up after getting hit. That being said, I really think the Packers are destined to win it this year. They have overcome multiple injuries and peaked at the right time of the year, very late. Think back to the Saints. They were not fazed by having to face Peyton Manning who had already won a Superbowl. I also give the edge in coaching to Pittsburgh. All in all it’s the Packers in this one.
PICK: GREEN BAY -2.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Green Bay 27 Pittsburgh 17
GOODLUCK TO ALL PACKERS BACKERS. I really believe siding with the Packers is the correct pick. I wish I had a crystal ball to be 100% sure, but I handicapped this game to the best of my ability and that is what my conclusion led me to. No matter what the final outcome for this game will be…it has been a great journey this year posting winning plays for many of you that have followed me or read my posts for better insight. Thank YOU guys much!! Look for me next NFL season!! -MAXLock
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Glad to see you on Green Bay Maxlock, I was also surprised they opened as the favorites when the lines came out.
Looking forward to a great Superbowl and all in all, it's been a great season! I really appreciate all of your thorough analysis and write-upsComment -
When's your super bowl show? I'll call in. I'm all for the open exchange of ideas here.
Let the people decide and results speak for themselves. Right?
Best,
SGComment -
Thanks for listening in
We're in this together to make $$$. I'm glad I can help with my picks and analysis. I'm looking forward to another great year next season.
The show was actually Wednesday night. Over 1,200 live listeners and 5000 downloads expected. You can also listen to the 30 min show at riggsplays.comComment -
Ok, I'll visit. Best,
StackComment -
GB just feels like to right side to be on, especially since I got it at -1.5!Comment -
Check out the site Max and let me know what you think?Comment -
this is gonna be a tough bet to make, but if it wins me money then hey, what the hell. lol. nice job max, good writeup.Comment -
Riggs, where'd you learn all the web tricks, development, and radio marketing?Comment -
Not necessarily, as we're offering a lot of services outside of our Plays (ATS).
I can't speak for Max, Dexter, but I know that I work my a** off during the season. I put in a rediculous amount of time researching, writing, producing new material, and posting winning plays. I'm sacraficing valuable time that I could be spending on my job, my investments, or even more important - time with my girl friend and family!
I understand your sentiments, just hope you understand where I'm coming from?Comment -
i got on Pitt +3Comment -
i saw your site, and i would assume that you will be selling plays in some capacity next season (top plays etc)....why would you invest all the time, energy etc into a free web site. you and max have had great documented success here in 2010, so it is the perfect time to make such a move.
i see that you are mentioning a documented 3 year run - if you really wanted to prove how legitimate your 3 year run has been, posting a link to seasons 2008 and 2009 would squash any doubts from the tout haters (like myself)
i just had a really bad experience with a slimy tout when i was 16 years old, and since then have been responsible for my own plays, with my own research.
i hope you understand where i am coming from - and as a veteran member of sbr, i hate to see people get sucked into tout talk (claims of high winning %'s without having proof)....
so if you have the links, that would speak volumes for your work - if not, i understand.
ps: i am on the packers as well for $2k....but no, i did not tail the syndicate as my play was posted on 1/23
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Dexter, far more conciliatory speak than with me ...
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Dexter, every single play I posted on here I played with my own money myself. This forces me to (although I enjoy it anyways) prepare long hours of research and film watching to understand teams better etc.
You'll be in good hands with Riggs and I. I know he takes long hours out of his days to prepare for each play.Comment -
max- do you personally flat bet all your plays ? or sometimes you will multi- unit? If so what 's your range of fluctuation (1x-5x or 1x-1.5x)
Thanks!Comment -
This off season I'm going to review all my plays and try to develop a good units system for next season. So that next season my plays will be rated with units. What I did for this season was, say for example I posted 6 games for the week, then all 6 games were even bets. Next week if I have 7 plays, I would use the same strategy, bet all games the same amount. Occasionally, I would increase the bet if I felt it was a very strong play. In general I play 5-20 units on each game.Comment -
good info. thank you - so pretty much you wager 4x a minimum bet at mostComment
