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From weeks 1-9 I went 30-15-5 ATS, 67%. This was undocumented because I wasn't on a site to post. Then...I find SBR before week 10 begins. So from weeks 10-until now I have a documented record of 40-22-2 ATS, 65%. All of these picks are found within my thread.
Essentially I emphasize only the documented record of 40-22-2, because when I included my record previous to joining sbr, I was harassed my sbr mods and some posters.
So above there it is broken down nicely for everyone
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yeah, you def are a legit capper as i have seen your writeups etc...From weeks 1-9 I went 30-15-5 ATS, 67%. This was undocumented because I wasn't on a site to post. Then...I find SBR before week 10 begins. So from weeks 10-until now I have a documented record of 40-22-2 ATS, 65%. All of these picks are found within my thread.
Essentially I emphasize only the documented record of 40-22-2, because when I included my record previous to joining sbr, I was harassed my sbr mods and some posters.
So above there it is broken down nicely for everyone
im sure you can understand why some people dont care about non-posted plays.....hope to see you back next year.
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heck yes you're an awesome capper. been following since week 11 i think. I was on both plays yesterday but on second thought didn't want to be against the Packers and put a pretty hefty bet on the 1q line (-1/2), to cover both earlier bets...
probably wasn't all that smart but worked out! anyways Maxlock, looking forward to your Superbowl analysis!Comment -
Max is the best capper ive found on this site. Very polite and thorough in his posts. I wish more people were like him. God knows there are way too many douches on this forum.Comment -
Max, no doubt, we are very impressed with the 65% over 11 weeks (Week 10 to Week 20). And I agree that you are one of the nicer, more respectful cappers on this site, which is definitely refreshing!
Now the big test, of course, will be, Can you actually do this again next season?
I've noticed some cappers who have a fantastic year and then get a million fans in here and then end up around 50% the next season. Which there's no shame in, any one year at 65% is enough for praise.Comment -
Something that is irrelevant that I noticed about the Steelers/Jets game. The line for the game was pit -3.5, yet when I checked the first half line, it was pit -3. I thought that was kinda strange, basically saying the Steelers would be up by at least 3 by halftime, and they came out firing and were up 24-3. I thought that was kinda funny.
On another more serious note, I've heard that teams that start out at -2.5 beg for people to bet on them at less than a field goal, and that team seems to lose the game and not cover the spread. I can't give you raw numbers as of yet, just something I have heard. As for being on the same side with Riggs, I'm pretty sure he's gonna be on GB.Comment -
Thanks people. I appreciate it. If I could help people make some $$ then why not.Max, no doubt, we are very impressed with the 65% over 11 weeks (Week 10 to Week 20). And I agree that you are one of the nicer, more respectful cappers on this site, which is definitely refreshing! Now the big test, of course, will be, Can you actually do this again next season? I've noticed some cappers who have a fantastic year and then get a million fans in here and then end up around 50% the next season. Which there's no shame in, any one year at 65% is enough for praise.
Capybara, it'll definitely be a challenge to repeat next year, but with the right attitude, meaning taking the time, weighing data appropriately and analyzing it correctly, along with several years of capping experience I'll be shooting for another 60+% season. Preliminary plans for next season is for Riggs and I to start up our open handicapping web site sometime in the summer, providing NFL, NCAA, MLB, possibly other sports. Myself, I only specialize in NFL. It's what I'm good at it and so I put all my focus on that, even keeping track of offseason drafts, moves, scheme changes, and camps.
As far as being on the same side as Riggs. The past couple weeks I've spoken with Riggs about his stances on the games he's selected. I do this to make sure I haven't missed anything myself when I cap the games. When it comes down to it I make my own selection based on what I believe the correct pick is and he makes his based on the same belief. Last week was a prime example of Riggs and I picking opposite teams as he went with the Packers and Jets and I with the Bears and Steelers.
So the goal for the Superbowl is to leave no stone unturned as I sift through everything useful. That being said I have a lean on the Superbowl, but would rather wait a bit, learn more about the match up and not rush into making the final decision too soon.
The public will probably be split 50/50 in terms of who they're taking. It goes without saying this is a huge game, and I want to make sure I'm on the right side.
-MAXLockComment -
I don't think you'll see this game at -3 in Vegas. The last thing Vegas would want is having GB -3 win by 3, making pretty much all the bets push=NO $ for Vegas, not even the juice.
The line opened up at 2, quickly rose to 2.5 after getting hit very early. It's tough to predict line movement this early before the game. As of right now the money is split about even with a slight edge to GB at about 53% of the money on the Pack. My educated guess is that this line will hover around 2.5/2/1.5 right up till gametime. But as I noted, it's really tough to tell this early.
Pinnacle is a good book to watch line movement as they take very large bets and are inclined to shift their line due to sharp action.Comment -
As I told Max on FB, I think we should line watch for a few days and see where the money is going and how it moves. As of now, my local has it at GB -2.5, and the online books that I use have it at GB -2. I'm not totally sold on either of these teams yet as there are a few things I'm still looking at. The experience factor is huge for Pittsburgh, they'll also be much healthier in two weeks as it looks like Aaron Smith is even going to play, Big Ben is the most clutch QB since Montana (IMO), and their running game looked outstanding against the Jets!!! This one is not going to be easy to stomach.Comment -
leaning pitt after buying the hook; will be interesting to see what you decide. glComment -
Actually Max you miscounted. You are 40-23. Which is 63%.
Still good, but not quite 65%Comment -
And just to support this claim so you don't think I'm trolling
Here is your Week 15 Update Post:
That was after Week 15
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...eason-p10.html
You had then 4 losses in Week 16 (Dal, CIN/SD Under, Sea, and Jets) , and 2 losses (Rams and Packers) in Week 17, and 1 loss in the playoffs. Which makes 23 losses.
Just pointing this out
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Hi Max. I just visit the forum and found this NFL thread very interesting and you have gone with an impressive record, I bet many bettors here making money with your suggested picks and having fun in this NFL season. Just my third post in this forum, and I am looking forward to see you here next year and around here in the mean time. Again, very well plays and inside thoughts. Good luck to us and all cappers here in the last play on Super Bowl match.Comment -
SSK, I just went through my entire thread, page for page and the record that I have listed of 40-22-2 is indeed correct. You referred to a week 15 post in which I wrote "29-16-2." In actuality it was 28-15-2. That is where the typed mistake happened, so I understand that is what you went by. As I said I went from back the start week by week and got a total of 40-22-2. You can go through the entire thread if you wish and check for yourself.
Here it is my ATS record broken down week by week since I joined SBR week 10:
Week 10: 5-2-1
Week 11: 3-4
Week 12: 7-1
Week 13: 5-2-1
Week 14: 4-2
Week 15: 4-4
Week 16: 4-4
Week 17: 1-2
Week 18 Wild Card: 3-0
Week 19 Divisional: 3-0
Week 20 Conference: 1-1
Week 21 Superbowl: ?
TOTAL: 40-22-2=64.5%
MNF Plays: 5-2
Playoffs: 7-1
-MAXLockLast edited by Maxlock; 01-25-11, 01:52 PM.Comment -
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I pretty much know who I'm taking. Spent several house of research the past couple days. I want to wait a few more days to release my pick to make sure I haven't missed anything.
Thank you, appreciate it. You'll see me either on here or even better on a personal website with Riggs, free of the clutter that this site has..
LikewiseComment -
Just spent several house of research the past few days. Gathering all the data that is useful and analyzing to see who has the edge in the Superbowl. I really believe I have a winner. The write up is all set, I just have to proofread it before I post it.
I still want to wait till at least Wednesday to release my pick with the write up to make sure I haven't missed anything.Comment -
i like you teaming up with riggs. The stackingreen guy might also be a good addition to your team; i know he's probably going tout, but all three of you have been raping the books during the playoffs. Been silently looking at picks from a few people in this subforum and he's been hitting like none other.Comment -
I can't wait for your pick max!Comment -
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 2 44.5
PICK: GREEN BAY -2.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: 27-17
There are several factors that I looked into when I capped this game. I’ll address many of them in this final write-up of the 2010-2011 NFL season
Spread
I’ll address the spread briefly. Many, including myself were surprised to see the Packers opening up as favorites. Following Pittsburgh’s win vs. the Jets, I predicted the line to be Pitt -1. Most books opened with the Packers being favored by 2, it quickly rose to 2.5 after getting hit early. I don’t think we’ll see this spread at -3 and here’s why. This would be a huge monetary disaster for Vegas if GB -3 wins by only 3. Vegas would get no $$ from the actual game outcome. All bets would push so they wouldn’t even be able to collect on the juice. Currently, GB has a slight favor with 52% of the money going on the Packers side. Furthermore, I think you’ll see this spread dip down to 2/1.5/1 as the game approaches. My inclination is that you’ll see a huge Pittsburgh following sprout up in the days leading to the Superbowl. Here’s another thought that I considered. If the oddsmakers had Pittsburgh as a favorite, then the majority of people would bet Green Bay + the points for obvious reasons. Maybe they want people to think “You can’t go wrong taking Pittsburgh as the underdog + the points in the Superbowl with all the Superbowls they have won!” If that’s the case, I’m not falling for it. As I’ll show in this write up Green Bay -2 is the clear choice here. The current line is 2.5, as I said before I think it'll slightly fall as the game approaches. So you can wait a bit or if you can no qualms about the current spread then go ahead and take the -2.5.
Common opponents that GB and Pittsburgh faced during the regular season:
Pittsburgh and GB had 5 common opponents during the regular season. I did not include the playoffs. These five being the Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Pats, and Falcons.
Green Bay went 2-3 in those games. GB averaged 21.4 points per game in those contests while giving up only 16.2. All three of the GB losses were by 3,3, and 4 points.
Pittsburgh went 3-2 in those games. Pitt averaged 20.0 points per game in those contests while giving up 21.6 points. Losses were by 5 and 13 points.
Even though Pitt has the advantage in wins, I give the edge to GB, because of the point differential. Pitt actually has a negative point differential for those games.
Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Green Bay comes into this game averaging 24.2 points per game, which was good for 10th in the league during the regular season. Defensively, Pittsburgh comes in with the lowest points per game allowed at 14.5. So where do we find an answer as to which side will be victorious? First, let us look at Green Bay’s offensive line protection vs. Pittsburgh’s ability to rush the QB. During the regular season Green Bay’s offensive line gave up 38 sacks on the season which ranked them at a modest 11th most allowed in the league. They were 21st in the league in QB hits allowed, a much better ranking than the sacks allowed. Being ranked 11th in that department is not a terrible ranking, and is only of little concern. Average that out and it comes out to GB giving up 2.2 sacks per game and allowing 3.9 hits on the QB. All this during the regular season. Pittsburgh on the other hand excels at bringing pressure on the QB. They finished the season ranking #1 with 48 sacks. What helps Green Bay is that Rodgers is a mobile quarterback who is illusive at times and can scramble for key yards in important situations. Further I looked at each teams’ performance in the playoffs this year. I found that Green Bay’s offensive line has actually done a better job of protecting Rodgers in the playoff games. In the three playoff games the Packers have only given up 5 sacks and have allowed 11 QB hits, which average out to be 1.6 and 3.6 respectively, much better than the 2.2 and the 3.9 they posted during the regular season especially since you consider each opponent in the playoffs had a good pass rush. I don’t believe the Packers will find much success rushing the ball against the Steelers. Pittsburgh rush defense ranks1st in the league. The Jets and the Ravens found that out to be a very tough task. But here is where I think the Packers have a huge edge. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay pass attack. In my honest handicapping opinion I believe GB has the best four wideouts in the league. Led by Gregg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. The outcome of this game will depend largely on the Packers ability to spread out Pittsburgh’s defense and have Rodgers ability to read the defense and pick his poison with his quick releases to the outside and yards after the catch. I went through Pittsburgh’s schedule and I found two offensive opponents that I think closely resemble Green Bays. Those being New England who put up 39 points and New Orleans who scored 20 points. Like Brady and Brees, Aaron Rodgers has a great ability to recognize the blitz and get rid of the ball quickly, which will be key to Green Bay’s ability to move the ball downfield and score points. New England and New Orleans both used several wideouts to space out Pittsburgh’s defense and attack their secondary. In those games Brees threw for 305 yards while completing 77% of his passes! All of this success while practically having no success from the running game. The top three WRs for the Saints caught at least six passes each. Two weeks later Brady had just as much success throwing for 350 yards while completing 70% of his passes. Look for the Packers to attack the Steelers in similar fashion. I really believe that the Packers and Saints offense is very similar. The Saints being more identical to the Packers while the Pats utilize their TEs more.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Green Bay finished the regular season second in sacks. I foresee this being a big problem for Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense. It’s been well documented that Pittsburgh offensive line is banged up. Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey sustained a high ankle sprain in the win over the Jets. He has already vouched we will play in the Superbowl, that of which I don’t doubt. That being said I don’t believe he will be 100%. High ankle sprains are more severe than a regular ankle sprain and even with two weeks off he will not function at the highest level. Add in the fact that he is going up against an exceptional NT in B.J Raji. This will not bode well for Pittsburgh’s interior line, which has been influx the entire season. Raji has been an absolute stalwart of late. He had 7 sacks in the regular season. For a nose tackle playing a 3-4 defense that is pretty outstanding. Another guy on the Green Bay defense that doesn’t get talked about much is defensive end Cullen Jenkins. He missed a few games towards the end of the season, but aside from the missed action he has played very well both in pass rush and against the run. He finished the regular season with 7 sacks while only playing 11 games. We all know about Green Bay’s other playmakers with sack specialist Clay Matthews, CB Charles Woodson, CB Tramon Williams, and safety Nick Collins. Rookie CB Sam Shields has also greatly impressed this postseason and may be the defensive X factor. Big Ben will likely try and target him in an attempt to avoid Tramon Williams and Woodson. Here’s where I think Pittsburgh’s offense will have the most trouble. When Big Ben drops back to pass, he has always liked to extend plays and hold on to the ball a second or two longer than most quarterbacks. With Green Bay’s pass rush it will be Big Ben’s demise. I foresee him being sacked multiple times, or worse coughing up the ball. If he rushes his throws in an attempt to get rid of the ball then the ball hawking secondary of GB will be there for the turnovers. GB has 6 INTs this postseason! Pittsburgh is aware of Green Bay’s ability to rush the passer so they will undoubtedly try to establish a running game with Rashard Mendenhall. Pittsburgh finished the regular season with a respectable 11th ranking in yards per rush and rush yards per game. Green Bay’s rush defense on the other hand was less than formidable ranking 16th in rush yards allowed, while giving up 4.7 yards per carry. (This includes QB scrambles) That being said, the Packers rush defense has really stepped up this postseason and I look to them to keep Mendenhall in check. In the three games the Packers have played this postseason they are only giving up 3.5 yards per carry and a total average of 70 yards allowed on the ground. They have not allowed a run over 14 yards. That’s a pretty impressive defensive output!
Special Teams
Both teams have struggled in their return coverage in the past, so there is no edge here. Of late, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay has done an excellent job of pinning opponents deep inside their own territory. Head Coach Mike McCarthy even credited the win last week due to their punter and the Special Teams.
Intangibles
This is one distinct advantage that I cannot deny Pittsburgh. This is Pittsburgh 3rd Superbowl appearance in the last 6 years. Big Ben along with many of the same players have already won the previous two they were in. Big Ben is as clutch a QB as I have seen play. He has a knack for making a big play at the right time and continually gets up after getting hit. That being said, I really think the Packers are destined to win it this year. They have overcome multiple injuries and peaked at the right time of the year, very late. Think back to the Saints. They were not fazed by having to face Peyton Manning who had already won a Superbowl. I also give the edge in coaching to Pittsburgh.
All in all it’s the Packers in this one.
PICK: GREEN BAY -2.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Green Bay 27 Pittsburgh 17
GOODLUCK TO ALL PACKERS BACKERS. I really believe siding with the Packers is the correct pick. I wish I had a crystal ball to be 100% sure, but I handicapped this game to the best of my ability and that is what my conclusion led me to. No matter what the final outcome for this game will be…it has been a great journey this year posting winning plays for many of you that have followed me or read my posts for better insight. Thank YOU guys much!! Look for me next NFL season!!
-MAXLock
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You make some great points, and I'm usually with you, bit I took the Steelers, my book had 'em at +3. It's the experience factor that does it for me and I don't believe Troy was 100% last weekend but with a week off he'll be good to go.
BOL!Comment -
01/26/2011 00:17:29
Team #1: Green Bay Packers
Line #1: Spread -3 (+110)
Wager #1: $500Comment -
Thanx max. My local has the game -1/-1. Will hammer the pack today. Agree with the pitt O-line being hurt.Comment -
Max,
Thank you for you due diligence and sincere effort.
Win or lose, I'll take your best shot over anyone else.
Be confident, but not overconfident: Be proud, but remain humble. You will go a long way!
All the Best!Last edited by wunwun; 01-26-11, 06:38 PM.Comment -
Thank you for yet another GREAT READ, you came through again. But...Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
"...Gregg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson...."
"Aaron Rodgers has a great ability..."
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
"...big problem for Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense..."
"Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey sustained a high ankle sprain..."
"Add in the fact that he is going up against an exceptional NT in B.J Raji..."
"...defensive end Cullen Jenkins."
"...sack specialist Clay Matthews, CB Charles Woodson, CB Tramon Williams, and safety Nick Collins. Rookie CB Sam Shields has also greatly impressed..."
"...establish a running game with Rashard Mendenhall..."
Special Teams
"...Green Bay punter Tim Masthay..."
"Head Coach Mike McCarthy..."
-MAXLock
One of my useless observations...
NAMES Green Bay Player Count 13 + 1 Coach + 1 Capper = 15
NAMES Pittsburgh Player Count 1 QB + 1 C + 1 RB = 3
WHERE'S THE LOVE???
You must use Head & Shoulders? couldn't you have mentioned Troy Polamalu's hair atleast...
LMAO!!!Last edited by Shadowcat; 01-26-11, 05:46 AM. Reason: Colors spacing & adding a reason for editing :)Comment -
Very nice write up for the super bowl match Max. I couldn't find anything against it and personally myself like to bet on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl this year. Pits journey will come to an end right here in my home town Arlington Texas. Through out the weekly picks, your analysis and picks will likely the same my thinking but I have to admit that you have done a very good job here in sbr NFL forum. Hope to see you around here or some where next NFL season and wish you having a good time in the mean time.
Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia will be the first game of the next season, I hope.
Good luck to all Green Bay backers!Comment -
Still can't figure out why you decided not to keep riding the train last week.
Packers!Comment -
Great write up! Deserves to be nominated for sure. I also think that you may want to remind some of your followers that the Superbowl shouldn't be treated differently from any other game, in that it should only be weighted as 1 Unit. The reason for this is that the Odds makers have had so much time to put this spread together. I'm sure they had all possible outcomes figured out before the NFC and AFC championships were decided, especially because this was the most likely outcome.
Moving on, I'd like to suggest my favorite pick of the superbowl : Packers -1/2 (+130) for the 1st quarter. The packers have been opening games very well, scoring a TD on the first drive. I strongly believe that the Steelers will not score a TD on their opening drive. Big Ben is a clutch quarterback, his scrambling style is what makes him clutch, but is much more useful later on in games, when fatigue has set in, because buying an extra second or two gives his WR just enough time to work their way open.
As good as the Steelers Defense is, with Troy Palomolu clearly being the best player who time and time again makes a game winning play for the Steelers; these plays rarely, if ever, come in the opening quarter of the game. I just don't see this bet losing! PITT will not outscore GB, so that only leaves the possibility of GB not putting points up in the opening quarter. While is is possible, I'm getting this bet at +130 so I'll take that any day.Comment
Shouldn't you be in Lakerboys thread anyways?
