[hello]

NEW ORLEANS -3.5
Under 43

[hello]

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season. It all started back on September 6th when they opened up their 2007-08 season at Indianapolis with a deflating loss at the hands of the defending champs. They then went on to lose their next three games before picking up their first win of the season at Seattle in mid October. They rattled off three more wins after that, but then inexplicably dropped back-to-back games to St. Louis and Houston. The Saints found themselves with an excellent opportunity to get back into the NFC South race last week when they hosted the division leading Tampa bay Buccaneers. The Saints held a one-point lead at the half, but then got outscored by five in the second half en route to the 27-23 home loss. RB Reggie Bush suffered ligament damage in his knee that could keep him out for the rest of the season.

As for Atlanta, this season started off on the wrong foot when former QB Michael Vick got nailed in a dog fighting scandal. This immediately put new HC Bobby Petrino’s offense behind the proverbial 8-ball, and the team has suffered on a weekly basis. The Falcons come into this game losers of three in a row, and six of their last eight overall. Inconsistency at the QB position has seen their offense only muster 14 PPG, and that number has dropped to 12 PPG over the L/3 weeks.

I'm expecting this to be a low scoring game much like these clubs first match-up of the year when the Saints won by a 22-16 final count in New Orleans. The 'Under' is 6-2 ATS the L/8 meetings, while the 'Under' has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L/4 times the Falcons were installed as underdogs between 3.5-10 points. It's also cashed 8 of the L/10 times the Falcons played within their division. As for the Saints, the 'Under' is 3-2 ATS off a SU loss this season, but a solid 10-3 ATS after allowing their opponent to rip them apart through the air (250+) the week before.

With QB Chris Redman leading the Falcons attack and the Saints without another key cog on offense (RB Bush), I expect to see a lot more FG's than TDs in this spot, so hit the lowside of the 'Total' for another MNF winner!!!

Take Under 43 (play at GEORGIA DOME - No wind - Indoors )

[jackpot269]

GO aints go

[Illusion]

I am leaning towards Atlanta and the over.

[Doc JS]

New Orleans -3.5

I swear if I'd paid as much as ESPN paid for MNF, I'd want a better game than NO/ATL this late in the season. I know the Saints were really good last year and nobody saw Vick behind bars when the schedule came out, but DAMN....this is a dog, isn't it??

[buztah]

I don't have either of those. I have a 3 game NFL/NBA parlay for one unit.

Saints ML
Mavericks ML
Suns ML

I can't bring myself to take the -3.5 play as I think it could be close but don't see the Falcons QB (regardless of who starts for em) hanging in with Brees all game long. I think the Saints win a close ugly game.

[jackpot269]

I don't have either of those. I have a 3 game NFL/NBA parlay for one unit.

Saints ML
Mavericks ML
Suns ML

I can't bring myself to take the -3.5 play as I think it could be close but don't see the Falcons QB (regardless of who starts for em) hanging in with Brees all game long. I think the Saints win a close ugly game.

small on N.O. for me just to make it worth watching!!!!

[outdrawed]

I am leaning towards Atlanta and the over.

[outdrawed]

I'm expecting this to be a low scoring game much like these clubs first match-up of the year when the Saints won by a 22-16 final count in New Orleans. The 'Under' is 6-2 ATS the L/8 meetings, while the 'Under' has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L/4 times the Falcons were installed as underdogs between 3.5-10 points. It's also cashed 8 of the L/10 times the Falcons played within their division. As for the Saints, the 'Under' is 3-2 ATS off a SU loss this season, but a solid 10-3 ATS after allowing their opponent to rip them apart through the air (250+) the week before.

Out of curiosity, does anybody actually follow these completely random trends or is it just a post-lengthener?

I'm down for .5u on Atl (+180) and a unit on the over. Two crappy defenses and a decent offense. Lots of passing yards in this one.

[tryintogetpaid]

Saints win. Falcons have Chris Redman in -- good luck on them scoring any points. Plus with Joe Horn returning to the Dome look for the secondary -- mainly the Predator, Mike McKenzie, to shut down all receivers

[The Seer]

Great write up and I happen to like the under as well.

[Furt]

I'm on the saints too but its all on brees' shoulders. he can't turn the ball over

[patsfan2727]

Out of curiosity, does anybody actually follow these completely random trends or is it just a post-lengthener?

You should know that the Saints are 4-0 ATS versus teams with a Rookie head coach and a QB making his first start in the NFL.

Saints are also 2-1 ATS versus teams who have lost a starting QB who has herpes and a dogfighting ring in his backyard.

BE CAREFUL THOUGH, Saints are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 games played on a day ending with "Y".

[outdrawed]

You should know that the Saints are 4-0 ATS versus teams with a Rookie head coach and a QB making his first start in the NFL.

Saints are also 2-1 ATS versus teams who have lost a starting QB who has herpes and a dogfighting ring in his backyard.

BE CAREFUL THOUGH, Saints are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 games played on a day ending with "Y".

I like your style.

[pavyracer]

Here is what I'm playing tonight:

6 point teaser -110:

Atlanta +10
under 49.5

Will be a slow paced game. Petrino will run with Norwood and Saints will be happy with a filed goal or two to win.

Let's cash this sucker!

[SBR Lou]

I see this at +4 now, total gone to 44...

Taking Falcons closer to kickoff

[Checkerboard]

Here is what I'm playing tonight:

6 point teaser -110:

Atlanta +10
under 49.5

Will be a slow paced game. Petrino will run with Norwood and Saints will be happy with a filed goal or two to win.

Let's cash this sucker!

my thoughts exactly pavyracer.