The over may be the play, but why are you ignoring that GB is giving up 16 pts/gm on the road and Dallas giving up 22 pts/gm at home? The opposing teams ARE allowed top play defense.
im taking that in to consideration but i see this as a sling fest between farve and romo this is semi on national TV i think dallas will put up points and greenbay will have to throw to catch up i just would hate to be sittin there hoping for them not to score.
The overlay for me is +12.5 pts. That's a fade of the over. I use a system that combines overlays with another angle, and without overlays between 7-13.5 pts (i.e. one to two TD's) it is 38-14 for overs and 23-15 for unders. By fading the 7-13.5 pt area for both overs and unders another 37-18 is added.
My explanation behind this trend is that when you get beyond overlays of two TD's the trend is too overwhelming to counteract. And under 1 TD the teams don't specifically focus on the other team's ability to score a lot or prevent scores, so the teams produce as expected.
IF you consider NFL Network as national TV with a whopping 1200 (exagerrated) viewers nationwide, then something's wrong. These players know that noone but big sportsbars and big fans with $250 to lay down on the season package will be watching and above all, they know that Bryant Gumball (remember The Today Show circa 1980's) will be announcing. The fact that cameras will be on the field will have little to no effect on this game IMHO. My $.02
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How is the over not the play tonight?
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