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Beaneaters Week 12 (47-32 ATS)
Here we are hours before kickoff, and I already feel like I've posted a losing weekend. If there was ever any doubt about how much of a rookie I am, this should prove it.
But before I get into my picks, I want to clarify something. There has been a lot of squabbling going on, primarily in the college football forum, about those who are bashing picks made by other people, what role moderators have, and how much credence to give to those who do the bashing. One poster noted how those who go spoiling for a fight likely aren't serious bettors at all, just idiots spending their lunch money.
I just want it known that I am in no way a "big time" player, so don't take my selections too seriously. As this weeks picks will show, I'm still a novice, with lots to learn. I know I bet too many games, but I'm still enthralled by the "thrill of the hunt" that comes while searching for a winner. I'm still searching the web trying to find articles on "dos and don't" as far as sports betting goes (types of bets, amounts, trends to believe in, etc), and would welcome any help that is offered.
As for my bets, I remain a monetary light-weight. Just your average schmuk who enjoys making his picks, and hoping to come out ahead at the end of the day. The goal, of course, to establish enough of a bankroll to make bigger plays down the road. Feel free to agree or disagree as you chose.
This week:
Because I just started betting games this year, I was very reluctant to bet more than one unit on a game. Eventually, I moved on to some two unit plays, and this week, I have taken it another step further.
And I'm worried, because my lines suck.
Three units
Cleveland -4 versus Houston. I jumped on this early in the week, thinking the line would be moving to five or six. Now I see it down to three in some places. Even at 3.5, I read about some guys "buying the hook". Hell, I didn't know you could even do that. So now I can see myself getting screwed.
But I love the Browns offence. They've won four of their last five (5-0 ATS) and showed some moxie in consecutive road games in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. I think they revel in their return home.
Yes, Houston is underrated, but last week against the Saints they were taking advantage of their bye week, and now they hit the road to a colder climate. I think (hope) the Browns have the confidence to cover.
New York Giants -7.5 versus Minnesota. Again, I jumped on this early in the week, thinking it would climb to 9 or 10. Instead it dropped to seven. And I still don't know how to "buy the hook". But I'm more confident in this pick. If Culpepper can pass for over 300 yards against Minnesota, then Eli Manning should have a field day. The Giants won't want to lose a third home game, and have held six of their last eight opponents to under 17 points. Even if the punchless Vikings manage that many, Giants should be able to cover 7.5.
Two units
San Diego -9.5 versus Baltimore.
Rookie mistake number three. I wanted to grab the number before it hit 10, and now it falls to eight.
I just have to believe that San Diego is a different team at home, hope that Turner will give Tomlinson the chance to show MVP form, and hope the Chargers finally assert themselves on defence. Show some pride in front of the home fans against a suspect Ravens offence. Baltimore is 1-9 ATS, with their only cover against a then-winless St. Louis team.
One unit
Tennesee -1.5 at Cincinnati. I was greatly disappointed at the Titans' Monday performance. I've lost some faith, but Jeff Fisher is too good of a coach to drop three straight, especially with the team in the midst of a playoff fight. I also like that against other high-powered passing attacks, the Titans have held Indy to 22 points, New Orleans to 14 (when everyone thought the Saints were good) and Tampa Bay to 13 . . . Okay, the Bucs aren't high-powered, but Garcia knows what he's doing.
New Orleans -2 at Carolina.
I think the Saints realize their season hangs in the balance today. They worked hard to salvage something from an 0-4 start, and they should be able to handle a Carolina team with quarterback issues that is winless at home. I also like that the Saints lost to the Panthers earlier this year, so revenge is a factor for what I feel is the better team.
New England -24 versus Philadelphia. Hey, if you can't beat them, join them.
Over/unders (A very poor 14-19 this season)
Seattle/St Louis, over 44.5
Washington/Tampa Bay, over 38
Oakland/Kansas City, under 34.5
Good luck all
Bean
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Originally Posted by beaneaters
