[buffettgambler]

Sides
Bucs -3
I am not too eager about betting against a hungry Redskins team in dire need for a win while being backed by a quarterback quietly getting progressively better. However, as I continue to mention almost every week, the Buccaneers remain a sleeper team providing bettor’s value on a nearly weekly basis.

I think the Bucs offense is much better than their surface numbers would lead one to believe. Its conservatively productive style is well balanced and has some upward mobility off current form. Sunday is a good spot for them to put forth another solid outing up against a defense that has been slumping more than any unit in the league during the last month. Their run defense has faltered in recent outings, not boding well when matched up against an offense heavily dependent on a running game being the catalyst of their offense. Taylor’s absence in the secondary not only hurts their slumping pass defense, but his ability to defend the run well should allow Graham to be more productive this week. Rogers injury has also hurt the depth in the Redskins secondary, and allows Galloway to go up against a corner that doesn’t match up particularly well against him. Once again, expect a well balanced and productive attack out of the Bucs offense that flies under the radar, while the Redskins defense should continue to mimic their poor defense of last year once again.

Although the Redskins offense is starting to pick up steam thanks to the particularly solid recent performances out of Campbell, don’t be surprised if you see some regression out of him against this solid Bucs defense who are one of the best teams in defending the pass. The Bucs also possess the most efficient pass defense in terms of defending opponent’s tight ends, which could prove costly for the team chemistry that Cooley and Campbell have been building up. Moss not playing 100 percent should slow down other options for Campbell as well. The Redskins inconsistent running game lack and ideal edge against the Bucs front to take some pressure off of Campbell and his potential unfavorable fundamental match ups.

On the surface and indicated by the spread, this game appears to provide two evenly matched teams. However, in reality, the Bucs hold slight fundamental edges in a few facets of the game, are playing better football in recent weeks, and have shown the better ability to beat good teams. I will take the Bucs once again this week at a reasonable price.

Browns -3
I would not have thought I would find myself betting on a “sexy” overachieving team like the Browns anytime soon, but they for some apparent recent are backed by a favorable price. Both teams are young, have solid offenses, and are playing better than expected. However, it is the Browns that are more than likely the real deal and are better battle tested coming into this game.

The Browns offense may be overachieving a bit, but there is no denying they are still one of the better offenses in the league. Anderson has shown excellent poise in the pocket, and has taken advantage of the many passing options he has to work with. Don’t expect this trend to end this week, as he faces one of the more inferior pass defenses in the league that will be without their best cover corner, and just magnifies the lack of depth the Texans have in their secondary. This should allow Anderson to continue to spread the ball around and be provided passing options on consistent basis. It should also open up things for a running game that has been showing signs of getting better, and one which holds a decisive edge against a weak Texans run defense. Expect another balanced and dangerous attack from the Browns offense that should put pressure on a young Texans offense playing in a hostile environment to keep up with them.

The Texans, much like the Browns have a solid offense when Schuab and Johnson are in the starting lineup. However, even with both these starters in, they are simply not nearly as balanced, nearly as consistent, and are simply not as dangerous as their counterparts. It’s hard to sugar coat an inferior defense like the Browns, however, they may put forth a better performance this week compared to recent ones, where they had decisive disadvantages in both defending the run and the pass. The lack of a Texans running game could allow the Browns to better concentrate defending the pass. The Texans also have one true real passing threat, which bodes well for a Browns secondary that lacks depth, but does have one solid corner that could match up decently with a Johnson type receiver. The Texans should probable put up a decent amount of points, but matching the Browns offense is not probable.

I will lay the points in a game in which points should come easy.


Chiefs -5.5
Both teams combined have lost nine straight games. However, the Chiefs have been the more competitive team, are still just one game out of first place, and have shown signs of potential and upward mobility with Croyle behind center. I have no problem backing the Chiefs at home against an inferior team when they are out of favor.

The injuries to Johnson and Holmes and being replaced with two no-name backs will certainly make it harder for the Chiefs to take advantage of the leagues worst run defense. However, the injury to Holmes may have created value on the line for the Chiefs, as the offensive lines of opponents have been doing a solid job opening up holes for running backs, not making it as important to who is running the ball. The Chiefs should still be able to put forth a solid outing on the ground, and take some pressure of Croyle and the passing game. I was very pleased with the effort Croyle put forth in his first start in a hostile crowd and a fast defense last week in Indy. Things should still get better for him this week, back home with more experience and against a weaker defense showing signs of some leakage. Expect a struggling Chiefs offense to benefit this week from the quarterback change, and take advantage of defense that has appeared less focused and consistent.

The Chiefs defense has been one of the bigger surprises this season, as it is coming off another solid performance against a dangerous Colts offense last week. This does not bode well for a Raiders offense that has shown nothing all season, and lacks an answer at the quarterback spot. The Raiders ideally would like to establish an effective running game, as they have been ineffective under one dimensional passing attacks. This does not bode well for their chances, as the Chiefs run defense has been one of the most productive in the league on a normalized basis. Jordan’s injury doesn’t allow the Raiders to employ the bruising back style that could take advantage of the lack of size the Chiefs have up front, while Fargas’s speed should be neutralized. The Chiefs pass defense has also been stellar, and holds a decisive edge against one of the worst passing games in the league. Culpepper has not only been inconsistent throwing the ball, but lacks the pocket presence to curtail the lack of protection and the Chiefs solid pass rush. Expect the Raiders to have trouble reaching double digit points and the end zone in this game.

Both teams have been struggling of late trying to find wins. However, the Chiefs have been keeping games close and have played at a high intensity level. Their huge advantage on defense should set up their offense favorably and allow them to pull out a two possession victory.

Panthers +3
The anchoring bias on the Saints continues to remain strong, as the public continues to expect them to spontaneously turn things around, which has had a material impact on their inflated lines. However, the lack of consistency on offense, and the consistently poor play of their defense makes a potential turnaround bleak and being a road favorite unwarranted.

The Panthers have been dead money at home this season, and are riding a four game losing streak. However, these deficiencies appear to be fully reflected in the line, while the notion of playing three of the better teams in the league during this losing streak does not. Their offense has been dormant, but things could start to pick up this week against an inferior Saints defense that possesses the worst pass defense in the league. Don’t be surprised if Testaverde has a solid outing, while Smith breaks out, finally playing healthy, and getting to face a Saints team ranked last in defending the number one receiver. This could allow the Panthers to employ a better balanced attack, especially if the Panthers defense has the same success against the Saints offense in their first meeting, allowing them to not have to play catch up early like they have been forced to do in recent games.

The Saints offense has been the streakiest in the league, and has regressed since their hot streak a few weeks back. The Panthers defense did a good job limiting the points on the board in their first meeting, and also did the same last year when the Saints were more productive on offense. Bush’s inconsistencies has put a lot of pressure on the Saints passing game that lacks the ideal receiving options. The inconsistent running game should prove especially costly, as the Panthers run defense is their biggest weakness. The Panthers also possess a fast front that curtail Bush’s greatest asset. The Saints may have some success in the air, but finding the end zone often doesn’t appear to be probable.

The Panthers have proved to be a profitable team this time of year as an underdog and out of favor. Don’t be surprised if they put forth another solid outing in the underdog role against a Saints team simply getting too much unwarranted respect.


Eagles +24.5
I have consistently been betting against the Patriots this year, and have paid dearly for it. I have been fundamentally breaking down each match up and have been finding reason why I feel the opponent has a chance of covering the inflated price tag, and after the games the write ups could not be as far from reality. Instead of fundamentally breaking down the game, I would rather breakdown the unique market that Patriots games have been creating. Books have been artificially inflating Patriots lines all season for anticipation of lopsided wagering. The more the Patriots annihilate spreads, the more inflated future ones become, thus creating a market bubble. As with all market bubbles, participants profiting from the bubble (in this case Patriots betters) have the same famous words “this time (or this team) is different”. However, like most market bubbles, in the long run, what originally appeared to be some sort of anomaly driving the bubble, simply can not carry the inflated price tag forever, the market will crash. The Patriots are the best team in football and are bringing their A game each and every week. But they are not an anomaly, and are a long term vulnerable entity to such increasing bubble predicaments. All my Patriots fades in the past are sunk costs that I could not get back. However, sunk costs can not detour future investments, as each must be looked at as an ongoing concern. I will continue to bet against this Patriots bubble, as it’s hard to imagine it being a profitable entity going forward.

Totals
Seahawks/Rams Under 45
Now that the Rams have been getting healthier on offense and pieced together a two game winning streak, the past perception of being a offensive juggernaut seems to be influencing their totals a bit. Although their offense has benefited from the return of Jackson, their defense has quietly been getting as progressively better as their offense has in recent games. Also, their return of Jackson makes them an Under bias team, as they become less pass happy, more power run oriented, less prone to turnovers that set up opponents offenses, and allows their defense that is prone to wearing down get more rest. The Rams also have a limitation on upward mobility on their offense that will prevent them from becoming a long term offensive threat that could light up scoreboards. That limitation is their offensive lines injured and poor play, which should be magnified this week against a top notch pass rushing team. Expect the Rams to utilize the run as much as possible to keep the Seahawks linebackers at bay. The Seahawks have been solid this year defending the pass, but have shown some vulnerability against opponents run game. This should allow Jackson to grind out yards, keep the chains moving, and a dangerous Seahawks offense off the field. However, the poor run blocking will prevent a dominant running game. With the Seahawks pass defense holding the upper hand, the Rams should probably not reach 20 points in this game.

The Seahawks offense is decent, but overrated. It is also an offense much more efficient at home. The Rams defense has shown improvement since coming off their bye week a couple weeks back, holding the Saints offense to just seven points heading into the fourth quarter, and keeping the Niners offense out of the end zone last week. The Seahawks inconsistencies in their running game should make it hard for them to take advantage of a sub par run defense. It will also make them rely more on Hassleback, who just isn’t the same away from home. Although the Seahawks hold the advantage the offensive side of the ball, the advantage doesn’t seem to be as much as the posted total reflects.



Bills/Jaguars Over 36
The Jaguars are one of the most misperceived teams out there. They are a team perceived of being made up of a dominant defense and a conservative offense that can not light up scoreboards. In reality, their offense is one of the most underrated units in the league, while their defense is not as good as perceived. Their has also been a structural change in their offensive philosophy that has picked up the tempo in their drives, and are no longer the offense that needs to be clock demanding to be successful. Garrard has taken over the starting role nicely, and came back from injury without any signs of rust. The Jaguars have one of the most efficient passing games in the league, while their running game is nearly impossible to stop. They have also done a solid job finishing off their drives, a trend that shouldn’t change, as they are finding more red zone threats as the season progresses. The Bills defense is coming off their worst start of the season after overachieving for some time. However, don’t expect much of a rebound this week, as they are not as good as what they showed prior to last week, and have been prone to not playing with the same intensity away from home. The Jaguars hold advantages in the air and on the ground, which should allow them to put forth a well balanced and effective offensive attack, which should lead to points surpassing the mid 20’s and not demanding too much from the Bills.

Although the Bills offense will suffer with the absence of Lynch, the Over will more than likely not. With Lynch as the running back, the Bills were one of the slowest tempo teams in the league, that was run oriented and used a their passing game a mere compliment. Without Lynch, the Bills will be more reliant on a passing game. This bodes well for the Over, as their passing game is “Over friendly” as their hit or miss style allows for big plays as well as quick three and outs that don’t demand a lot of clock time. Losman’s propensity to make mistakes can set up easy scores of an opportunistic defense like the Jaguars, while Thomas’s reliance on the A gap should suffer against a solid interior run defense, thus making them even more dependent on their passing game. Although I don’t expect the Bills to light up the scoreboard, expect them to a decent amount of points, but more importantly allow for a lot of drives to take place in this game due to the increased expected tempo of their drives.


Titans/ Bengals Under 47
There is no surprise that value has been created on the Under after the high scoring (yet unsustainable) game the Titans are coming off of Monday night. Simply put, it is hard to justify a total set this high whenever an extreme Under bias team like the Titans are involved.

With Haynesworth and Harper both likely returning this week, expect the Titans to shore up the deficiencies that were exploited last week by the Broncos, and allow them to return to one of the most dominant defenses in the league. Although the Bengals remain one of the better offenses in the league, they are not as dangerous as they once were, and have been more mistakes prone this year compared to past years. If the Bengals want to have a chance winning this game, they will have to be more committed to the run game, or they will be forced to predominantly attack a top three pass defense in the league. The Bengals offense has score more than 27 points just once since week 2, a far cry from last year. Don’t expect that to change this week against a healthier, motivated and elite Titans defense.

Although the Titans offense and Young looked very impressive last week, don’t expect such performances to be sustainable long term trends. Although they are up against one of the worst defenses in the league, the last thing they want to turn this game into is a shootout similar to last week. Rather, expect them to return to their conventional power running game in order to keep the Bengals offense off the field, and control the tempo that is better suited for their success. Although the Bengals have a horrible run defense, the lack of big play ability in the Titans backfield should force them to have to grind out yards and demand a lot of clock time. The Titans should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground and possibly through the air, but their success will come in small doses and also be time demanding. Both teams should be able to put points on the board, but surpassing the low 20’s for either on doesn’t seem likely. In my opinion, there appears to be good value on the Under.

Ravens/Chargers Under 38.5
Books seem to be putting too much stock into the rare high scoring affair the Ravens are coming off of, while also not taken the underahcieing Chargers offense too seriously. For those reasons, there appears to be value on the Under in this game.

Although I expected the Ravens offense to improve with Boller behind center, the 30 points they were able to put up last week was more of a product of horrible defense and the up tempo style the game became. Boller did not look terribly effective. Things should also get worse for him this week, as the Ravens offensive line continues to perform poorly, and should simply be overmatched by a dangerous Chagers pass rush. This notion, combined with the structural change in the Chargers defense from being dominant against the run last year and vulnerable against the pass to now being more dominant against the pass than the run leads me to believe the Ravens will be heavily committed to the running game that lacks explosiveness. Simply put, expect the Ravens to employ a conservative game plan whose goal is to limit mistakes, and depend on their defense to get the upper hand against an underachieving Chargers offense.

The Chargers offense has a lot of upward mobility from current form, as they simply have too much talent on the field to continue to play at their current level. However, this is not the ideal match up for them to turn things around, simply because if the Chargers want to turn things around, it will have to occur with the running game first. With the Ravens possessing arguably the best run defense in the AFC, expect Tomlinson to continue to struggle hitting stride in this game. With Rivers continuing to struggling in the passing game, the Ravens should also be allowed to consistently stack the box and limit the big play potential of Tomlinson. Although the Ravens have shown more vulnerability in their pass defense this year compared to recent years, the Chargers lack the type of passing game that has posed problems for this defense. Much like the Ravens offensive game plan, I expect a conservative one out of the Chargers, while they rely on their defense to take advantage of the Ravens struggling offense. This should be one of the lower scoring games of the week.

Broncos/Bears Over 41
I have been bearish on the Bears and Overs in their games for two years now. I thought I was going to go all season without finding value on either a Bears line or an Over in a game that they are involved in. However, strangely enough, against an opponent that has gone Over the posted total in 8 of their first ten games, in my opinion, there is value on the Over in this Bears game.

The Broncos offense is starting to pick up steam, and is coming off what might be their best performance of the season, which happened to be against an elite defense. The success has predominantly come from the improved play of Cutler, however, this is still an offense whose success lies in their running game. The Broncos running game has been pretty solid all season, no matter who the running back is. Their running game success is not only favorable to the Over as it makes their passing game more efficient, but when successful on the ground, it comes in big chunks, as they lead the league in double digit running gains. This hidden asset should pay dividends for them this week facing a Bears team that ranks last in the league in double digit running gains allowed. The success of the Broncos running game should open up things for their improving passing game, and allow them to take advantage of the biggest weakness on the Bears team- their secondary. Expect the well balanced Broncos attack to allow them to reach the 20’s in points scored.

The Bears offense is still an inferior one with Grossman behind center. However, it has become more heavily bias towards the Over, as Grossman provides the Bears with much more big play potential and bad play potential, two variables favorable to the Over. The Broncos run defense is bad enough to open up something for the Bears running game and prevent their passing game from becoming an inefficient sitting duck. However, the inefficiencies in the Bears running game is so to material to allow them to dictate the ideal tempo of the game and employ a heavy dose of running. This will force the Bears to be committed to the passing game. Forrtunately for them, the Broncos pass defense continues to underachieve, and allowed an ineffective Titans passing game to be dominant last week. Their star corners are not playing well, and are vulnerable deep downfield, which should allow Grossman to utilize the third level passing game he is solid at using. The Bears should continue their upward trend on offense with Grossman, and also should reach the 20’s to send this one Over.