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Take Eagles +23!
Bodog has the Eagles +23 right now. I think it will be a tight one, but Im taking the Eagles and +23. My bookie is holding firm at +21 tho, and Im not taking it till I can get the +23.
Averages show NE offence will win by 20.5
NE Defence allows 15.7 ppg
PHI Defence allows 18.7 ppg
Eagles are out to make a statement. Take the Eagles +23
Just that simple! Back up the truck! Nothing can go wrong!Originally Posted by Iwinyourmoney
I would not go against New England.
I don't care what the spread is.
me 2just got Pats @ -21.5
This is might be corelated but I wouldn't mine dropping a big par three 7 point teaser with the eagles +30 and the over 43 and denver +8.5. Might try a different team configuration if that doesn't work though.
you are better off with NE -16 than eht eEagles +30. Especially if Mcnabb is a no show. Good luck otherwise.
anyone who puts their money against the pats in an idiot. I dont even care if it happens and they cover, the chances are so low it will happen.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3123446
^^what is PHIL trying to throw the pats off by making him a "gametime" decision??
good job andy reid....way to motivate NE even more by making it some big mystery what quarterback they are going to face or have the defense prepare for...like they needed anymore motivation to crush teams
this is going to be a beating IMO
but the worst beating will come against the NYJ.....I PROMISE
any coach who keeps running the ball being down 28 is a loser
I can get 23 1/2, but I just don't think I can pull the trigger. This is unreal. 23 1/2 in the NFL just doesn't happen. Not to mention, it's against the Eagles, a periennial playoff team. Maybe I can wait until close to game time and at least make sure McNabb is playing. My mind is telling me to take the points, my gut is telling me to let sleeping dogs lie.
It's amazing when a line is at 23, and most people feel that in a 7-point teaser, you're better off moving it to -16 than +30.
ok, taking the pats. i wasn't sure until now
is your streak over?
dont let garbage ASU send you into betting angry without thinking
why are you going against the grain??
The Pats went on the road and beat a Bills team that had won 4 games in a row 56-10 and you think the Eagles can keep it close going on the road to NE and possibly without McNabb...and how many point did the Eagles score vs the worst team in football Dolphins with Feeley at QB...they won only 17-7...no way they make a game of this. Pats win by 28 or more...don't forget they'll go for it on 4th down up by any score...which will kill any chance at a back door cover.
Is first half PAts the play here?
i would agree with you totally
Anyone have ATS #s for -21 and higher favs going back 5 years?
0-0
Last edited by rm18; 11-23-07 at 03:49 PM.
Whats your sample size? Like 5 games?
Eagles +24 and up, like stealing money.
This is only the third NFL game with a spread above 21 in my database (back to 1978)
SF was both times previously (won but lost ATS both time)
probably lessWhats your sample size? Like 5 games?
I have to keep riding the Pats until they consistentaly let me down.
The ATS for double digit dogs is higher than 50%. Sorry I don't know the exact number.
Eagles are probably the best play here, for those betting the game. Pats have won by an average of 25.4 points per game, their first ten games, but Eagles offense and defense is rating in the top 10 teams based on total yards per game, according to nfl.com, substaintially better than the Pats average opponent to date. They are getting 23 points? Based on this rough approximation, if the Eagles were ranked about equal to the average of all Pats opponents they would get 25.4 points. The statistics seem to indicate that over the first 10 games Eagles are playing substantially better than the average Pats opponent, but I do realize recent games and current injuries need to carry some weight.
I'm not going to bet this game as it is not a great enough value for me to do more research, especially after the unusually big jump in power rating the bookmakers gave the Pats after the Buffalo game. In the interest of full disclosure, I did take buffalo against the pats and got that wrong. However I have made money betting double digit dogs overall.
If you are betting this game I would wait and check out the weather, to see if this could be a factor in slowing down the Pats offense before betting the game.
I actually like the Over here as I expect both teams to do some scoring, with the Pats scoring more, of course. I especially like the Over if the weather is supportive of a passing game (low wind, no rain, etc. etc.)
The normal correlation is over and fav, or under and dog, but this time I kind of like over and dog, but not enough to bet it in a parlay.
Last edited by louis; 11-23-07 at 04:25 PM.
10+ PT dogs are 371-321-16 ATS since 1985 (53.6%)
14+ PT roaddogs are 57%
There has never been a team like these Pats.
You can think Philly is a good bet, and might be right...BUT any valid analysis can NOT be based on historical analysis of other large favorites.
I think anyone playing either should just buy scratch tickets instead and then discuss in threads if the proper strategy is to scratch the top section or the bottom section first - but anyways thats besides the point.
It makes very logical sense that going from -23 to -16 is better than +23 to +30. Unfortunately there will be an insufficient database size on spreads of 21.5 + to prove this, and the fact people even suggest such teasers makes me want to be a bookie so bad.
I do feel the Eagles are most definitely worth a shot plus this many points. I mean they are not exactly a bad team overall really, and according to my numbers this line should not be more than 16.5 points, even despite them being without McNabb who is listed as doubtful.
line jumped to 24 today
Back door Cover
back door cover anyone? I'm thinking the PATS might be up 42 to 13. Then something weird happens, Matt castle comes in with 5 mins left in the 4th and throws an INT for a TD the other way; eagles cover. Yeah, thats wishful thinking but it happened in the Pats vs browns game, so why not here.
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