NFL Week 12 Predictions Show | Hide
Last Week In Review
At default settings, the prediction tool's analysis went 5-3 in 60%+ odds to cover games during Week 11, bringing total ATS performance in 60%+ odds games since its pre-Week 3 launch to 37-24 (60.7%). (See Season to Date NFL Prediction Results.)

Default settings analysis slightly underperformed our benchmarks picking winners at the lowest 50%+ odds to win threshold, going 11-5. It was an odd week in that default analysis indicated four odds to win predictions that were very close to even (San Francisco-St. Louis, Arizona-Cincinnati, New Orleans-Houston, and New York Giants-Detroit), and three of these four games went the other way. Since launch, the tool is now 85-43 (66.4%) predicting straight up winners at the 50%+ odds to win threshold, still several percentage points better than our expert and consensus picks benchmarks.

We received several emails last week regarding the New England-Buffalo game. The common question: "How is it possible that a team's odds to cover can be higher than 50%, when the tool's calculations only favor that team by 12.1 points, and the Vegas point spread for that team is -16? It seems like there is an error in the calculations."

In reality, there is no error. Occasionally, and especially in the case of large spreads, this counterintuitive result can occur because we evaluate a team's expected win margin and cover odds as both dependent and independent events. Without getting too technical about it, think about it this way...

Imagine that in 100 similar historical games, the teams like the Patriots won 80 of them. The teams similar to the Pats won 60 games by 20 points each, won 20 games by 3 points each, and lost 20 games by 3 points each. Also, teams like New England faced a variety of different point spreads in those 100 games, and they managed to cover 70% of the time.

Using the simplest possible math and looking only at historical data, you would say that the Patriots have 80% odds to win the current game being analyzed (since teams like the Pats won 80 out of 100 similar games), and an expected win margin of 12 points (the weighted average of the win margins of the 100 similar historical games, assuming each game carries equal relevance/importance).

Now you find out that the spread for the Patriots in the current game is -16. So what are their odds to cover that spread? On the one hand, their expected win margin is only 12 points. However, in similar historical games, the Patriots won by 18 points 60% of the time, and a repeat of that performance would cover a -16 spread. In addition, you also know that the Pats generally covered the spread (which was not always -16) in similar games 70% of the time, another relevant data point that suggests greater than even odds for the Pats to cover, as long as most of those historical spreads were at least close to -16.

The math built into the tool is far more complicated, of course, but we hope this simplified example helps to answer the basic question. And as we all know, the Pats managed to blow away their expected win margin yet again. It's starting to make us wonder why Vegas still offers lines for their games...

In closing, one of the things we have been thinking about a lot lately is how to improve the selection and quality of statistical factors incorporated into the prediction tool. In this first version, we decided to keep it simple and, beyond the two power ratings included, use basic statistics that most people were familiar with. However, we know that there are more powerful stats out there that would enhance the analytical power of the GameZone predictions tool -- and its predictive power too. We've already received a number of informative emails on this subject so please let us know which factors you think would be good additions.

Shoot us an email with your thoughts and when you get a second, please check out our fantasy football player projections for Week 12, which should be posted by Tuesday evening.

NFL Week 12 Preview
One thing to watch out for this week is of course the truncated rest periods for teams playing Thanksgiving Day games, although with bye weeks now a thing of the past, we would be careful about making any assumptions about less rest affecting certain types of teams more than others. Right now, we don't have the appropriate data on rest days to make that sort of a judgment with a high degree of confidence.

Now that we are later into the season and power ratings are converging, we are seeing more and more games where the Vegas spread appears to be efficient, which is the way it should be. If your system is finding angles on 16 of 16 NFL games, then it's a safe bet that something is wrong with your system, since the Vegas lines are never inefficient that frequently.

An interesting study this week will be momentum. A season power ratings based system will always lag in "recognizing" teams who rapidly turn a bad season around and start consistently performing well, since their crappy early season performance can never be erased from the historical results on which power ratings are based. On the other hand, it is next to impossible to predict which underperforming teams truly have turned a corner while those teams are still in the early stages of such a turnaround. For example, most people jumped on the Saints bandwagon when they ripped off four straight wins. Then they lost to the Rams (ouch) and Texans. So much for a turnaround.

This week, we have some underperforming teams (hello Rams) with seemingly positive momentum, and some overperforming teams (hello Titans) with seemingly negative momentum. So do we assume that those trends will continue and make extra adjustments to predictions as a result, or do we believe that the last two games for these two teams were more likely just a blip on the radar screen?

A season power ratings based system effectively favors the latter approach, since in general, two wins and eight losses still makes a bad team. However, GameZone users wanting to make a more educated decision can modify the prediction tool's settings to decrease the importance of power ratings and increase the importance of other factors set to "Last 3 Games." See if the prediction calculations change significantly. If they do, you may have uncovered a situation where, historically, momentum seems to have mattered in the outcomes of similar games.

NFL Week 12 Predictions Summary
Below is our Team Rankings GameZone predictions summary for all NFL Week 12 games. Although we update this page periodically, predictions can change multiple times per day based on new information such as shifting NFL betting lines. Click on "View Predictions" to see the most recent lines and predictions and to customize factor settings.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Green Bay -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Green Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 78.5% and an expected margin of 7.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Green Bay as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 64.2% cover odds.
go green bay

Notes from the Nerds: We think this will be a well fought game. The Lions have their backs against a wall after their recent slump, and Favre and crew can't afford to rest on their laurels. However, the tool's analysis across nearly all angles favors Green Bay.

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Dallas -14, analysis at default settings shows Dallas as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 93% and an expected margin of 13.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.

Notes from the Nerds: Can the Jets do it again? The tool's analysis certainly doesn't give them high chances for another upset, but for momentum believers, some angles do support the Jets as slight favorties to cover.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Indianapolis -11.5, analysis at default settings shows Indianapolis as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 87.6% and an expected margin of 13.2 points. Similar games analysis indicates Indianapolis as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 66.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: These predictions deserve a big warning label due to the fact that a home team spread of +11.5 is extremely rare, which decreases the relevance of historical games. In fact, if you only look at Vegas point spread as a factor (decrease importance of all other factors to "Lo"), the team like the Falcons has actually covered a spread like +11.5 more often than not. Despite their recent struggles, the Colts' power ratings remain strong, although they are still relatively banged up. All told, there are enough uncertainties here that we are not highly confident in the predictions at default settings.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Jacksonville -7.5, analysis at default settings shows Jacksonville as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 74.8% and an expected margin of 6.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.

Notes from the Nerds:

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Denver -1.5, analysis at default settings shows Chicago as the slight favorite to win the game, with win odds of 58.7% and an expected margin of 3.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Chicago as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 63.3% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Kansas City -5.5, analysis at default settings shows Kansas City as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 73.1% and an expected margin of 6 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.

Notes from the Nerds:

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Tampa Bay -3, analysis at default settings shows Tampa Bay as the toss-up favorite to win the game, with win odds of 53.8% and an expected margin of 2.8 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.

Notes from the Nerds:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers View Predictions
Based on a point spread of New Orleans -3, analysis at default settings shows New Orleans as the slight favorite to win the game, with win odds of 56.7% and an expected margin of 1.1 points. Similar games analysis indicates Carolina as the very slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 55.3% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Seattle -3, analysis at default settings shows Seattle as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 83.5% and an expected margin of 9.8 points. Similar games analysis indicates Seattle as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 74.9% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Cleveland -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Cleveland as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 69.3% and an expected margin of 5.8 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is nearly efficient.

Notes from the Nerds:

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Tennessee -1.5, analysis at default settings shows Tennessee as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 60.4% and an expected margin of 3.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tennessee as the very slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 55% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants View Predictions
Based on a point spread of New York -7.5, analysis at default settings shows New York as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 72.4% and an expected margin of 8.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates New York as the slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 59.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Arizona -10.5, analysis at default settings shows Arizona as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 93.1% and an expected margin of 14.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Arizona as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 66.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers View Predictions
Based on a point spread of San Diego -9.5, analysis at default settings shows San Diego as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 95.7% and an expected margin of 17.2 points. Similar games analysis indicates San Diego as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 72.9% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds:

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots View Predictions
Based on a point spread of New England -22, analysis at default settings shows New England as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 90.2% and an expected margin of 14.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.

Notes from the Nerds:

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers View Predictions
Based on a point spread of Pittsburgh -16, analysis at default settings shows Pittsburgh as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 90.9% and an expected margin of 11.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is nearly efficient.

Notes from the Nerds: