[kroyrunner89]

With the NFL draft now completed, and the destination of most big name players determined, it seems as good a time as any to look ahead to Super Bowl XLV and consider some future bets. With 32 teams in the NFL, obviously without taking team talent into consideration you have 32-1 odds of picking the next Super Bowl champion. However, all of you are clearly smarter than that, and will be trying to find teams with a higher level of talent that present good value for the 2011 Super Bowl. The purpose of this write up is to give you all an idea of where I'm seeing value this coming season, and where I see potential traps that could suck you in. Going by the odds off of LooseLines.com, I'm going to make the assumption that none of you are seriously considering any of the bottom 16 teams to put your money on, leaving 16 teams to be considered as champion of Super Bowl XLV. Here are the current odds for these teams:

• Colts: +600 (6-1)
• Patriots: +800 (8-1)
• Saints: +800 (8-1)
• Chargers: +800 (8-1)
• Cowboys: +1000 (10-1)
• Vikings: +1000 (10-1)
• Steelers: +1000 (10-1)
• Packers: +1100 (11-1)
• Eagles: +1200 (12-1)
• Ravens: +1500 (15-1)
• Jets: +1600 (16-1)
• Falcons: +1800 (18-1)
• Giants: +2000 (20-1)
• Bengals: +2500 (25-1)

Obviously, some of these bets present more value than others. Here are some of my top choices for this coming season, as well as some teams that I believe you should stay away from:

Top Picks:

• New York Jets

This is probably one of my favorite bets for the coming season. At 16-1, this pick offers a ton of value, and the only complaint one can really find with the team is that Sanchez is still a bit of an unproven Quarterback. Shonn Greene is an outstanding up and coming running back, and the veteran presence of Tomlinson will be a big help to this offense, even if he does turn out to be washed up and used sparingly. Also, the Jets have added Santonio Holmes to the team, and although he will miss the first four games of the season he'll be around when it counts at the end of the year, giving Sanchez another weapon in a squad of WRs that could already be considered deep. Meanwhile, this Jets' defense, which was #1 in yds/pass att. allowed last year, has added CB Antonio Cromartie to the squad. This pass defense will be incredibly tough against teams next year, and with the addition of Jason Taylor as well, this team will be very tough to score against. I believe that we'll see an improved Sanchez in 2010/2011, and with what will probably be the best defense in the NFL this team will have a real chance at winning it all in February.

• Baltimore Ravens

We saw flashes of an elite offense out of the Ravens last year, although towards the end of the season Flacco struggled with a hip injury and the offense sputtered when it mattered. One of the biggest complaints against the Ravens offense was their lack of a wide receiver, and they certainly took care of that problem by acquiring WR Anquan Boldin this off-season. The threat of Boldin at WR should help open things up for already dangerous RB Ray Rice, who last season showed his versatility by racking up over 2000 total yards. Although the defense is aging, they did their best to address their lack of depth at CB during the draft, and I think this will be an above average defense against the pass next year, as well as continuing to be a top 5 unit against the run (they were #1 in yards allowed/rush attempt last season). With a strong defense and what could easily be a powerful offense, you have to see a lot of value in the 15-1 odds offered for betting the Ravens right now.

• Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the 2009/2010 season as they failed to show up against the Vikings in the playoffs and wound up getting blown out. However, the talent of this team can't be denied. Dallas was above average against the pass and run on defense last season, and certainly has all of the pieces in place to be again in 2010/2011. On offense, they were #2 in yards/rush attempt, and with Felix Jones taking over this season as the featured back, you have to think that they have a good chance at becoming the #1 team running the ball overall. Even if Jones can't stay healthy, they have Marion Barber to back him up, who certainly is capable of carrying the load if need-be. The offense also offers a great deal of balance, as last season they were #6 in yards/pass attempt. With the acquisition of WR Dez Bryant in the draft, the Cowboys have added yet another weapon to what was already a powerful offense. The Cowboys struggled last season converting their yards into points at times, and often these are the teams that we see put it together the following season and make a deep run. I'll gladly take 10-1 odds on this team to win it all, as they could easily be one of the most talented teams in the NFL in 2010.


I believe that these teams stand above the other teams in the field, as they appear on paper to be the most complete squads in the NFL. However, there are currently many other teams that are being talked up as possible champions in 2010. Here are a few teams that I feel are being overvalued, and are likely to disappoint those who decide to bet on them:

Teams to Avoid:

• New Orleans Saints

As many of you know, the Saints are probably my favorite team in the NFL. I'm a big fan of Brees and the offense that he runs, however I don't believe the pieces are in place for the Saints to repeat in 2010. For starters, I'll readily admit that they probably should have lost to the Vikings in the playoffs last year. The Saints' flaw all season was their inability to stop the run, and unfortunately I haven't seen them do a ton this season to fix that problem. With Fujita no longer on the squad, and Sharper possibly leaving, I see a weakening defense that won't be able to generate the incredible number of turnovers that they did last season. The offense will continue to put points on the board as always, but I believe we'll see a team closer to the 2008/2009 squad than last year's. I think this team makes the playoffs, however finds themselves eliminated before the Superbowl. 8-1 odds isn't a good enough price to pick this team, so stay away.

• Philadelphia Eagles

One of the main reasons I have to include the Eagles here is because of the ridiculously low odds offered for picking them. QB play is becoming increasingly important in today's NFL, and with an unproven QB at the helm I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay 12-1 odds on this team to win it all. I personally am not even convinced that this team makes the playoffs, and if they do they'll more than likely be a wild card team and have to fight an uphill battle on the road in the playoffs. This offense will take a step back and the defense will continue to be right around average, maybe slightly better. That's not the formula for a Super Bowl team, so save your money and stay away from this pick.

• Pittsburgh Steelers

Again, this is a team who's odds are way too low. I've seen them in other locations at as high as 20-1, but even at that price I wouldn't take them. First of all, Roethlisberger is suspended for 6 games, although that could get reduced to a 4 game suspension if he behaves himself. Even if he only missed four games, the Steelers open 2010 with a pretty tough slate of games. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all teams that could very easily beat them without their #1 QB, and if faced with a 1-3 start I don't think that they can come back from that and make the playoffs. Last year this team thrived on the pass with a mediocre rushing game, and they really haven't done much so far to improve that phase of their game. Also, with losing Holmes due to trade, and now with Sweed possibly missing the entire season with an Achilles Tendon injury, how can this pass game be as good as it was last year? Getting their QB back still won't solve this team's problems, and I'm pretty confident in saying that this won't be a playoff squad, let-alone a Super Bowl champion.


That's about it for teams I have strong opinions again, remember that teams I like are simply teams that I feel offer value. Squads I didn't mention in write-ups I feel are priced about right, although I will note that I'm not a huge fan of the Colts at 6-1, I feel like you need odds a little higher than that for them. These recommendations won't count towards my record in 2010, however I look forward to looking back at them in February and seeing how they did. It's my first year trying to pick futures, so don't take my word as gospel and throw down a bunch of money on teams I recommended. As usual, make the final decision yourself and use common sense, and as always exercise good money management! I'll have a couple more off-season write-ups for team win totals and division odds before we kick off the 2010 NFL season, until then good luck to everyone betting NFL Futures or any other sports!

-Kroy

[andywend]

Betting on the SuperBowl winner this far in advance is almost always a big mistake.

The amount of "vig" charged is always massive as the books don't want to get caught with their pants down.

Take, for example, the odds provided by Looselines as mentioned above:

Only 14 out of the 30 teams are listed and the market still adds up to 115.

Looselines needs to change their name as the odds they are offering are absolutely pathetic.

[kroyrunner89]

Agreed, perhaps late in preseason is the best time to bet these as you can usually count on at least a couple teams losing a big name guy who's an impact player due to injury. Just figured I'd throw this out there, and yeah you're right, the lines are pretty bad.

[slacker00]

I'd prefer to toss a few pennies on the super longshots this time of the year. The hold/vig isn't as much that way.

Looselines has some good odds on the Redskins (40:1), Jags (55:1), Raiders (115:1), Lions (110:1). I know none of these teams are likely to win, but that's why they are called longshots. All of these teams have solid potential if things fall right for them this year.

[brooks85]

I like my bengals at 25-1

Their schedule is a lot tougher than last year, on paper, and IF they could get through the season with 12+ wins they would have to be a contender.

Injuries are this team's biggest problem since '05, if the team could stay healthy they can win. The defense is top notch, again when healthy, and the offense just got reloaded with WRs and Gresham. The best thing about the WRs is it opens up the field and Gresham will be effective immedieately. When chris henry got injured last year, it shutdown the passing game. Andre smith is something to be excited about and you can look at video of him last year when he finally got healthy, towards the end of the year, just moving piles by himself.

They just gotta stay healthy

[brooks85]

+3800 on 5d

[focustig]

It's pretty much a lock that the jets or the colts are going to be in the superbowl. People like to think a big upset will happen (or even a minor one) and in the AFC there have been none in the past 10 years on making it to the superbowl.

[BigdaddyQH]

Teams that host the Superbowlnever play in the Superbowl. Scratch Dallas. NFC South teams never repeat, much less get to the Superbowl a second straight time, and no NFC team has played in two Superbowls since 1998-99. Scratch New Orleans. The Jets will suffer thought the sophmore jinx both at QB and at HC. Pitt will be in disarray.

Right now, I would take Baltimore at 15/1, Green Bay at 11/1, and Atlanta at 18/1, though you can find better odds for all three teams.

[vanc]

Like Texans. It's a longshot but they can be really good.

[GunShard]

When the Giants defeated the Patriots at the Super Bowl in 2008.

Other than the Saints being an underdog winning the Super Bowl in 2010.

I want to know what the pre season odds were on the Giants.

By the way, Darren Sharper SS got resigned with the New Orleans Saints for another year.

[rick_213]

Am I missing something or is there a reason why noone has mentioned the PATS in this thread? Who did they lose or not re-sign this season that I should know about? Is Brady 100% healthy?

[kroyrunner89]

The Pats have a few issues with the team, one of the most important being the health of Welker. Even if he is able to take the field, he probably won't be the same player he's been the last few years, at least not this season. This also isn't a team with much balance, as their rushing game was a problem last season and they've done nothing to improve it this year either. Finally, the defense really hasn't improved much from last year, and the loss of Jarvis Green may even make the unit worse. Facing a much tougher schedule, and given the fact that the Pats struggled to beat quality teams last season, this team may not even make the playoffs let alone win the Superbowl

[jhack704]

Teams that host the Superbowlnever play in the Superbowl. Scratch Dallas. NFC South teams never repeat, much less get to the Superbowl a second straight time, and no NFC team has played in two Superbowls since 1998-99. Scratch New Orleans. The Jets will suffer thought the sophmore jinx both at QB and at HC. Pitt will be in disarray.

Right now, I would take Baltimore at 15/1, Green Bay at 11/1, and Atlanta at 18/1, though you can find better odds for all three teams.

i like tha way big daddy thinks. i like balt alot too. i dont think indy will make it back and i think the jets will be like washington from yrs past. possibly even tennesse could be a long shot at 30 to 1. last yr i had 14 of 16 playoff t eams right and i had indy vs minn in sb but i had n.o. losing to minn and indy beating pitt to get there, i hope i can come up with those kind of predictions again this yr.

what bout the chargers big daddy? haha i dont think they will do much this yr besides their normal make the playoffs at 9-7 and then lose.

[Blinki]

With the NFL draft now completed, and the destination of most big name players determined, it seems as good a time as any to look ahead to Super Bowl XLV and consider some future bets. With 32 teams in the NFL, obviously without taking team talent into consideration you have 32-1 odds of picking the next Super Bowl champion. However, all of you are clearly smarter than that, and will be trying to find teams with a higher level of talent that present good value for the 2011 Super Bowl. The purpose of this write up is to give you all an idea of where I'm seeing value this coming season, and where I see potential traps that could suck you in. Going by the odds off of LooseLines.com, I'm going to make the assumption that none of you are seriously considering any of the bottom 16 teams to put your money on, leaving 16 teams to be considered as champion of Super Bowl XLV. Here are the current odds for these teams:

• Colts: +600 (6-1)
• Patriots: +800 (8-1)
• Saints: +800 (8-1)
• Chargers: +800 (8-1)
• Cowboys: +1000 (10-1)
• Vikings: +1000 (10-1)
• Steelers: +1000 (10-1)
• Packers: +1100 (11-1)
• Eagles: +1200 (12-1)
• Ravens: +1500 (15-1)
• Jets: +1600 (16-1)
• Falcons: +1800 (18-1)
• Giants: +2000 (20-1)
• Bengals: +2500 (25-1)

I like your picks. Most value is on the Jets imo.

But you can get a much better price on those teams.
Best prices on the market:

Jets: +1600(already best price)
Cowboys: +1200
Ravens: +1850

I really am a Vikings fan, but I think the Packers will be dominant this year.
At +1400 it should be worth a shot.

Who do you guys think is able to win the NFC Conference.
I can only think of Saints, Vikings, Packers and Cowboys.
I think I'll bet on all of those 4 at +450,+750,+750 and +600.
Is there any team which could be a risk for this bet? Eagles?Giants?
I personally really don't think so.

[nj6]

Chicago Bears.

[icancount2one]

I think there's value in the Jets at 10 to 1 still, Bmore at 14 to 1, and now that Philly's fallen to 18 to 1, I think there's enough of a chance that Kolb will be all he's cracked up to be for that pick to have value.

But it's all academic since I don't like tying my limited funds up that long.

[DwightShrute]

Dolphins and Parcells best value

[slacker00]

Dolphins and Parcells best value

Dolphins get a lot of good publicity for the drowning swimmers they push back to shore, but what you don’t hear about is the many people they push farther out to sea! Dolphins aren’t smart. They just like pushing things.

[str]

Ravens had a solid running game last year and have beefed up the receiving corps. Defense should stay solid again.
Way early but alot to like at 15 or 18 -1.

[jhack704]

im sure we are all wrong, it is usually a team we never really expect or want to put money on

[jhack704]

I really am a Vikings fan, but I think the Packers will be dominant this year.
At +1400 it should be worth a shot.

Who do you guys think is able to win the NFC Conference.
I can only think of Saints, Vikings, Packers and Cowboys.
I think I'll bet on all of those 4 at +450,+750,+750 and +600.
Is there any team which could be a risk for this bet? Eagles?Giants?
I personally really don't think so.

im a favre fan and not a gb fan but i kinda agree. i dont think the saints will be back again. so dont bet them. i like minn gb dal. sleepers would be nyg atl and maybe sf or chi in the nfc

[kroyrunner89]

Saints could be back but there just isn't enough value at the offered odds. Cowboys are a decent bet as that should be a very solid offense with Bryant coming in at WR and Jones getting more touches at RB. I did fail to leave out the Packers in this write up, since writing this they've really grown on me and I'll make note of that when I do my NFC North write up in a month. Aside from these three teams, I don't see many contenders in the NFC. Next tier down is probably Vikings and Falcons in my opinion, I really wouldn't consider anyone else.

[jboy4]

Bengals +2500. Worth putting a little on them.

[kroyrunner89]

Yeah if the Bengals can get through that brutal schedule I suppose they may be a decent pick. A little value there but not a ton IMO

[Dad]

Good call on Jets, bad call on Pitt.

[d2bets]

Chicago Bears.