Bucs -3.5
After winning three of their first four games, the Bucs became a team that was getting a bit too much respect by books (i.e. making them a single digit underdog against the Colts in week 5). However, when out of favor in the marketplace, the Bucs make for an intriguing team to back, as they are a well coached, disciplined team that limits their mistakes and forces the opposition to beat them. Their last four games were against teams with a 22-6 record, which resulted in just one win and less public backing going forward. This is where I will jump in, as they have proven more than capable of manhandling teams with losing records (despite just facing two all season).
Warner just isn’t as attractive as a starter compared to the change of pace quarterback role he was embarking in at the beginning of the year. When teams have a full week to prepare for his deficiencies, he becomes more prone to the high rate of mistakes that have cost his teams wins over the last four seasons. Expect Kiffen to game plan around Warner’s lack of mobility and utilize the team speed the Bucs have on defense. The more one dimensional the Cardinals become, the more vulnerable Warner gets. James is having a decent season, but will not have the upper hand against the Bucs run defense.
The Bucs offense may not have the playmakers are the flashiness the Cardinals offense brings to the table, but they are more efficient less mistake prone offense (something I would much rather back). Graham’s ability to take over the starting role with not much of a drop off should help the Bucs take advantage of the Cardinals weakest link- their run defense. They are also vulnerable to west coast style passing attacks- another weakness the Bucs have the tools capable of exploiting.
Expect the Bucs to get things back on track now that they get an ease up in their tough first half schedule. Having small edges in every facet of the game should allow a quietly dominate and win by more than three.
Titans -4
The Panthers are far from a typical first place caliber team, despite carrying that title in the standings. They have been helped out immensely by their soft schedule and only having to face two teams with a winning record going into week nine (not surprisingly losing both those games). They also may be dead money as long as Carr is under center (when Fox would prefer a rusty Testaverde behind center over Carr, that speaks volumes). The Titans may have the most underrated defense in the game, and a defense more than capable of taking advantage of weaknesses the opposition has on offense. The solid play of their front seven has caused problems with teams who posses week lines and indecisive quarterbacks, deficiencies the Panthers will have to overcome if they want to keep this game close. Smith has shown no chemistry with Carr, leaving the Panthers with a lack of talent to match up with the Titans defense. With the Titans having maybe the best pass defense in the league, teams have their best chance against them if they can run the ball. However, that’s a variable that is easier said than done for an inconsistent Panthers running game. Expect the Titans to be able to stack the box, make the Panthers running game ineffective, and leave the Panthers offense outclassed for their second week in a row.
The Panthers defense is not what it used to be, and past reputation may be inflating market perception. This happens to be a defense that can be run or passed against. It is a defense whose greatest strength (their speed from the edges) can be offset the by athletic ability and strength of Young. The return of Henry adds a change of pace back that can wear down the Panthers front and make life easier for Young and his inconsistencies in the passing game.
Last week proved that the Titans may not be a compelling multi possession favorite. However, they know how to win, and I have no problem backing them at a reasonable price. I will gladly go against an overrated Panthers team, and a struggling Carr on the road.
Jaguars +3.5
The marketplace has been dying to back the Saints after their first quarter struggles. Three straight wins is what the market has been waiting for, and I am not surprised in the least they are once again carrying an unjustified price tag. Although the Saints are playing better football of late, beating the Seahawks, Falcons and Niners leaves a lot to be desired. They are still a team that has holes to work on, and a team yet to prove capable of beating the better teams in the league like the Jaguars.
Without McCalister, the Saints have a sub par running game, which is not ideal against a Jaguars team who happen to be struggling defending the run this season. Bush’s sideways running is the last thing you want going up against a team as fast and solid at tackling like the Jaguars. This mismatch should force more pressure on Brees and the Saints inconsistent passing game, which happens to be up against the Jags biggest strength, their pass defense. Although Saints passing game is slowly showing progressing, there is no reason to think it will turn back to last seasons form. It has improved of late thanks to play calling adjustments that call for short drops and timing patterns, a style the Jaguars see all the time. After averaging 27 in their last three games, the Saints should experience a drop-off in offensive productivity.
Despite putting forth a decent effort in his first career start, the market still doesn’t want anything to do with Gray. What the market appears not to be factoring in is the notion that no other team in the league can rely more on the running game than the Jaguars. This variable bodes well for the Jaguars chances this week, as the Saints run defense happens to be one of the weaker ones they have faced all season. Stacked box or not, the Jaguars should be effective on the ground, thus limiting the role Gray has in this game. With a full game under his belt, Gray should prove to be more effective this time around as well.
Beating the Saints at home (who happen to be 1-3 in the dome this year) is an easier task than winning in Tampa Bay. However the market price does not reflect such a notion, creating value on the Jaguars this week. I will gladly bet on an AFC team up against an NFC team when the price is right.
Vikings +7
The Chargers have a very similar story to tell as the Saints. They entered the season with high expectations, but a slow, underachieving start forced public backing to jump ship. However, three straight impressive wins has allowed their backing to jump back on board and force an unwarranted price tag. The Chargers are a very solid team, but this price can not be justified.
The Chargers long run success lies with their running game, as Rivers inconsistencies and forced to rely too much on one option in the passing game leaves a lot to be desired in that facet of their game. This does not bode well for their chances of winning by more than one possession this week, as facing the best run defense in the league should curtail the Chargers greatest strength, and force Rives to play a bigger role this time around. The Chargers offense is not coming off an effective game as that 35 spot would lead one to believe, as those points were derived primarily on defensive playmaking. Expect some slowdown out of an upward trending Chargers team this week.
The Vikings are lost on offense thanks to not having a quarterback. However, as long as Holcomb is not under center, the Vikings chances improve substantially. Although Bollinger is one of the least talented quarterbacks around, he does provide a leadership ability the Vikings offense is in dire need of. He also proved to be more productive last week than the likes of Jackson and Holcomb have shown of late, despite playing an aggressive Eagles defense that was teeing off on them. The Vikings are also not a team that needs to rely much on their quarterback to win games, thanks to their very solid running back combination. If this game were played last year, I would say the Vikings should have problems keeping this one close. However, the Charger run defense just isn’t as good this year, which should allow the Vikings to move the chains this week and prevent a blowout.
Colts +5
Call me a masochist for betting against the Patriots once again this week, but I just don’t see any long run sustainability with these inflated price tags. If they were playing another sub par team that they would be capable of bullying around and running up the score, I may be more resistant, but playing an undefeated world champ at home is another story.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball, as their offense appears incapable of being stopped by any defense in the league. However, this Colts defense matches up as well as almost any other team in the league against this Patriots passing game. Their ability to close passing windows as fast as any team in the league should curtail the effects of the Patriots timing patters that rely heavily on yards after the catch. Their ability to put solid pressure on the quarterback with rushing just four gives them a huge advantage other teams were incapable of utilizing, as dropping seven or 8 in the passing game (while still putting pressure on Brady) should curtail the effects of Brady’s ability to spread the ball around. The precision in which the Colts use the Tampa 2 should curtail the long ball Moss has been heavily dependent on. Lastly, their improvement in their run defense, should make it more difficult for the Patriots to run all over them like they have in years past.
I am still not sold on the Patriots defense, as they have faced just two quality quarterbacks (one which they were unable to stop). Facing Manning will be much different than facing Lemon and Campbell, and forcing teams into one dimensional offense early on is much less probable this week. The Patriots have been relying most on coaching and smarts to be effective on defense, as their age and lack of athleticism leaves them vulnerable against a team like the Colts have seen their stuff for years now. Expect Manning’s brains to offset Belichicks, allowing the Colts to score enough to keep this one close and possibly win.
Totals
Cardinals/ Bucs Over 37.5
The Bucs are quietly becoming an intriguing Over play, as their offense is slowly proving to move the ball more effectively via the passing game, while their defense is slowly coming back to earth and showing weaknesses. Their total market price continues to not reflect such a trend. The Cardinals are also more intriguing Over play with Warner behind center. He provided the Cardinals with a more up tempo style compared to Linehart, can move the ball quicker downfield, and is also more mistake prone, thus providing opposing defenses with scoring opportunities.
When the Bucs have the ball, expect them to have some success on both the ground and through the air. The ability of Graham to be effective on the ground provides a huge boost to the Bucs offense, as Garcia is one of the more dependent quarterbacks in the league on the run game. Garcia has also been throwing the ball downfield more, which has a chance of paying dividends this week against an aggressive Cardinals secondary. The Bucs have over 800 yards on offense in their last two games. This upward trend will probably not come to a halt this week, which should allow them to put up their fair share of points to send this total over the mark.
Probably my biggest concern this week with my Bucs bet is my tendency to believe that their defense was underachieving earlier in the season, and they have recently shown some signs of regression. Warner may not be what he used to be, but if he is one, can be still be one of the more effective quarterbacks in the league. The return of Boldin gives the Cardinals the most feared WR tandem in the league, and encourages the Cardinals to pass more. If they could score 17, which is not asking much, this total should go Over.
Niners/Falcons Over 37
A lot of talk has been made about both struggling offenses, but not has been made of either teams struggling defenses, especially of late. In my opinion, when two defenses involved playing at the level they have displayed in recent games, a total in the 30’s just isn’t warranted.
Although there is not an offense in the league that has looked as bad as the Niners have this year, I would not be surprised if they are able to get things together this week. This offense goes as far as Gore takes them, which makes them one of the few teams to want to back an Over with the more times you think they will run. The Falcons have one of the worst run defenses in the league, and without Jackson, the Niners struggling line should not be outmatched in the trenches, which has been Gore’s biggest problem this year. The Niners passing game is heavily dependent on their running game, which should allow for a positive chain reaction for their offense. Gores predicted improvement this week should open things up for Smith, and allow him to work off of the play action that he is at his best using. Although the Niners lack the ideal receivers to stretch the field, their biggest passing threat, Davis, has the most favorable match up, as both Falcons safeties have really been struggling in coverage. Smith did not look good in his return, but clearly some of his inefficiencies was a product of rust, a variable that probably should be gone this week. The Falcons defense may not be in this game mentally after proving to be unhappy with the release of Jackson.
The Niners have a lot of talent on defense, but they have clearly shown to have given up on their offense. Each week, they are showing new holes to be taken advantage of, and an apparent lack of effort isn’t helping matters. Last week, their biggest problem was their inability to stop the short passes and Brees’s ability to spread the field. This does not bode well for their chances this week, as the only thing Harrington is good at is employing a first level passing game and spreading the field. This should allow the Falcons to move the ball down the field much more effectively compared to recent games. The Falcons lack of running game has also put a damper on their passing game in the same fashion as the Niners. However, the Niners inability to stop the run should provide better balance to the Falcons offense that they are in dire need of.
Both offenses are not ideal of Over bets. However, I am predicting both to put of some of their best performances year to date, giving them both good chances to reach the 20’s and send this game Over.
Patriots/Colts Under 57
Call me someone incapable of learning from my mistakes, but again, these short term trends in Patriots game has made prices in their games out of wack. A two touchdown pace per quarter may not even send this game Over.
The Patriots are a team whose games have a much less chance of going Over the more competitive they become. Although this may not be the case for most teams, as teams tend to run out the clock during blowouts, the Patriots pace on offense is not correlated to the score, while the one dimensional passing games of their opponents having to play catch up really made their totals hard to stay Under. However, this appears to be their most competitive year to date, which means both teams will be running throughout. More importantly, the Tampa 2 and solid team tackling the Colts have shown, should force the Patriots to have to chip away at the field and demand a lot of time off the clock during their drives. I also expect them to be more dependent on the running game in this game compared to most, as forcing this game into a shootout like they have in all their others, doesn’t automatically give them the advantage.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a slower pace out of the Colts offense this week to keep Brady off the field. This holds especially true of Harrison is not a go, or simply ineffective. Manning appeared to struggle at times last week without him, while Wayne becomes less of a force without him on the opposite side of the field. The Patriots bend’ don’t break philosophy will also force the Colts to chip away at the field, while their stellar red zone defense will not always lead to touchdowns for the Colts solid offensive drives.
On the rare occasions that you see totals set this high in pro football, it involves two sub par defenses, and offenses that have a decisive advantage throwing downfield and score quickly. Although both Manning and Brady are capable of such, both defenses are too good to consistently allow it. Expect the zones both should employ lead to both offenses being effective, but their effectiveness will come at the price of clock time. In my opinion, the pace of this game will not allow this to reach the mark.
Texans/Raiders Under 41.5
The marketplace continues to not adjust for the improved play of the Raiders defense, allowing me to continue to play the Under in their recent games until the market corrects themselves.
After a hiccup early on, the Raiders pass defense corrected themselves rather quickly, allowing them to once again become one of the better units in the league. This does not bode well for a Texans passing game that appears lost without Johnson being an option downfield. Making matters worse for them this week is being without Shaub. Although Rothenfels replaced him against the Titans, I feel that effort is a value creator on the Under, as it simply lacks sustainability. Rothensfels is a decisive downgrade from the starter. The Texans best chance on offense is running the ball, something that they simply have not been doing well thanks to the regression of their offensive line and not having an adequate running back to hand the ball off too. However, the Raiders run defense is bad enough to allow the Texans to establish some form of a running game and prevent them from becoming one dimensional passing team detrimental to the Under. Simply put, expect a heavy dose of running and high percentage passes that try to limit the mistakes that have been killing them in recent weeks. The result is clock time and not a lot of points.
The Raiders offense has not witnessed any kind of improvement with Culpepper under center. Having said that, the Raiders go as far as their running game takes them, a facet that should be semi effective against a struggling run defense. However, when the Raiders run game is effective, it is not directly correlated to Overs, as it is a grind out running game that lacks explosiveness and demands a lot of clock. The Raiders passing game has been so bad that even a struggling Texans pass defense has the advantage over them. The lack of a red zone threat for both teams should lead to a lot of field goals in this game. I simply don’t see either team reach 20 in this game, making the posted total too high to pass up.
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