Game Time: 11/04/2007 04:15 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com
The New England steamroller that is the Patriots comes to a grinding halt this Sunday at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. Cash on the Colts plus the points in this big contest.
One game I will not be giving out to my clients, despite a recent streak of winners in the NFL, is "The Game" beween New England and Indianapolis this Sunday. This game is nearly as hyped as a championship game in the AFC, which it just may be in January this year.
While most handicappers will promo this game for sales in terms of public interest, there are better games to bet this week, but not better ones to watch as a fan of NFL football.
Bill Bellichick said it best last week: "They have won 12 in a row and are World Champions and have beaten us three straight. They are the best team in football." I agree with that statement folks. Forget the fact the underdog in this series is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 games, forget the Colts being at home, and forget they are undefeated since winning the Super Bowl.
The oddsmakers have set the line so the public will lay the wood, and now the line is dropping to 5½ points in some places late Thursday. I bet the Colts at +7 at one book. It's a tricked-up line in my opinion, and now it is showing some sharp player money moving back to earth.
New England is playing a style right now rarely seen in as long as I can remember. Tom Brady has 30 TD passes folks, and an arsenal of weapons envied by all quarterbacks in the NFL. They are playing the best football in recent history, and with all the parity in the NFL, that is saying something.
The Colts are also getting it done and playing solid on defense, in fact better than last year at this point. At home they have allowed an average of 159 yards through the air which is impressive, and with a healthy Bob Sanders at safety playing deep support in a cover-two scheme, they have been solid. Indianapolis allows just 14 ppg at home. Peyton Manning is as good as Brady and has balance and command of the offense for the Colts. Look for Indy to run it this week against the Pats who allow over four yards per carry.
This game boils down to three or four big plays, special teams plays and a crucial penalty or fourth down play. Who can make these plays or have things go their way, so to speak, will win it. This game will not make or break either team until the final game of the season when they have home field advanatge if these two meet again.
I will call the score, and watch with the rest of you. Out on a limb in the eyes of some, and a contrarian play, but I like the Colts' chances this week. Things have come too easy for New England, and the Colts are a stiff test for adversity. Colts-35, Patriots-31.
Game Time: 11/04/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com
Tennessee failed to cover in a straight up win last week, but should bounce back this week as small home favorites against Carolina. Take the Titans.
Our Sunday afternoon NFL selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the four points over the Carolina Panthers.
The Titans are rushing for over four yards a carry while giving up less than four yards per carry, and home teams with this profile are solid bets at Game 5 of the season forward if they're off a straight-up win and priced as favorites of
-4½ points or less. These teams are a super 72-37 ATS (64%).
Since Vince Young was inserted as the starting quarterback, Jeff Fisher's men have been awesome going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS off a point-spread loss. Last week, the Titans failed to get the money versus Oakland, so I look for them to rebound with a strong effort here. Lay the points.
Game Time: 11/04/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com
The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their recent road games. Cash on Carolina as road dogs this Sunday when they visit the Tennessee Titans.
Last week's results should provide the visitors with a motivational edge here, as Tennessee managed a narrow victory vs. the Raiders and Carolina was crushed by the Colts.
While they came up short vs. the World Champs, the Panthers have long been profitable in the underdog role. They're now 3-1 ATS when getting points this season, all three wins coming in straight up fashion. Looking back further and we find them at 9-5 ATS the last 14 times they were listed as underdogs and a highly profitable 70-41 (63%) the last 111.
The Titans have also been highly profitable when listed as underdogs. They've seen four of their seven games decided by four points or less though, which means they haven't fared very well as favorites. In fact, last week's point-spread loss dropped them to 0-3 ATS the last three times they were laying points and a money-burning 6-14 ATS the last 20.
Both teams have divisional games on deck. However, the Panthers' game comes against lowly Atlanta (not much of a look-ahead) while the Titans face the Jaguars, the team they are currently tied for second place in the division standings.
The Panthers easily won their last road game (25-10 at Arizona) and are now a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games away from Carolina. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle here with an excellent shot at an upset. Consider taking the points.
Game Time: 11/04/2007 04:15 PM -
By: Russel Joseph | touthouse.com
The Colts are a solid team with an improved defense and a strong offense, but the Patriots are better. Lay the points as New England rolls to a win in Indianapolis.
Simply put, the Indianapolis Colts have a defense and a solid offensive passing game, and that's where the problem lies as the Colts' running game is nothing near what it needs to be to keep a balanced threat against the New England Patriots defense. Won't happen.
The Colts are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS this season, are averaging 32 ppg and giving up an average of 15 per game thus far. Believe it or not the Colts average 9 ppg less than the Patriots this year. Normally the Passing King, Colts QB Peyton Manning has tossed just 13 TDs on the season; that's just over a third of what his nemesis in New England has done thus far.
The New England Patriots are 8-0 SU and ATS this season, averaging 41 ppg while giving up an average of just 16 per game. New England has dominated this matchup, now 8-3-1 ATS over their last 12 meetings with Indianapolis. Patriots QB Tom Brady has already tossed 30 TDs on the season and is hitting over 74% of his passes as well.
New England has scored 34 points or more in every game this season, 48 or more in their last three games, including last week's 52-7 win hosting Washington. Take New England to cover the spread here!
Game Time: 11/04/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Dave Price | touthouse.com
After opening the season 0-4, New Orleans has reeled off three straight wins to climb back into the hunt. Side with the Saints at home on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
New Orleans has now won three straight and the Saints will continue their climb back into the thick of things this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is 0-7 ATS in road games where the total is between 38½ and 42 points. When the books have figured a moderate scoring affair, the Jags haven’t got the job done. With the offensive problems that the Jags are having, we have to go with the red hot Saints here.
A terrible Jacksonville passing game will let New Orleans off the hook. The Saints have been very good against the run, only allowing more than 100 yards rushing in one game this season. The pass is where they are susceptible and that’s the facet of the game where the Jags struggle most. Lay the points with New Orleans at home.
the saints will lose big against jacksionville..the saints should not be favored over anyone especially at home where they have a dismal record as the favorite..what a joke jacksonville is money in the bank...theshark
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I will also be on the Saints this Sunday. Waiting to see if maybe I can get -3, but will settle for -3.5 if I have too.
