[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


YTD: 19-26-2
Units Won: -12.15

(one of my losing 3 unit teasers hasn't updated yet)

~~~
Allrighty; we've hit past the halfway mark in the season and I'm down 12 units. Weeeh. Well, I guess it could be worse. I could be down my entire bankroll and be down 100 units.

Okey doke: on to the games:

Parlay: Jacksonville M/L AND Under 40 (+427)
3 units at BetTrojan

I don't normally do parlays, but in this instance, I think it's worth it. If Jacksonville wins (and I think they will), this game will more than likely go under. So instead of taking the +170's hanging around, I'll take +427 and lose all the times that Jacksonville wins a shootout instead. Honestly, for Jacksonville to win this game, they'll need to dominate New Orleans's offense, and if that happens, this game should stay under 40. I'm willing to take that risk.

This game should be more at pk, in my opinion. Yes, the Saints have been doing well lately; but look at the last three teams that they've played: none are known for having the dominant defensive lines that Jacksonville has. I really think that the Jacksonville defense will be able to contain the offense of New Orleans and that the three back tandem of the Jags will be able to run at will on the Saints D. Hopefully, they follow the gameplan that they normally employ against the Colts: don't let the other offense on the field; rip it up on D. Heck, with the way I have this bet aligned, they only have to accomplish this once in every 4 times to even be +EV. I honestly think they'll do it more than half the time, so yeah.

Tennessee Titans -4 (-110)
2 units at JustBet

David Carr is starting? That's really all I need to know. I hate the Titans with a passion, but think that almost any team in the NFL can beat a team led by David Carr. Plus, Jeff Fisher played with David Carr in the division for the last 5 years; I think he gameplan to stop the dinks and dunks which are all Carr really can perform well. Much as it pains me, I think the Titans will be able to take care of business here. Plus, this goes back to the whole AFC > NFC South angle.

Denver/Detroit UNDER 45.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
This total seems really high for me, especially when considering that the strength of Detroit's offense is passing, which is what Denver is actually good at stopping...well, somewhat. And if Detroit comes out running all the time, the clock will continue to grind. Add in the fact that Denver seems to be unable to score in the same bunches they used to, and I really think that this under has a good shot at coming in.

Houston Texans +3 (-110)
2 units at BetTrojan
This falls into the system play where you bet on the underdog with a better record than the opponent. I was going to make this a one unit play, but I got a price that was only 1 cent away from what Pinnacle would be willing to take if they held the position (they're offering Oakland -109), which is much better than what I can get elsewhere in the market, so I upped my bet size.

The Texans don't lose a lot by having a healthy Sage Rosenfels come in rather than an injured Matt Schaub. He's been in this offense since Kubiak's regime started, and has shown that he can work with the current starting receivers; heck, many of them were on second string with him not that long ago.

I might try to scalp this back down to one unit later, if I can, and get myself a better price. We'll see.

San Francisco Moneyline (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Atlanta is laying points to someone? You're kidding. I don't care how much San Francisco has been sucking; They win this game about half the time; getting +170 is definitely a +EV proposition.

Seriously, Atlanta is laying points to someone?

~~~
Sides I'm looking at, but haven't placed a bet on yet are:

Denver, either +3 at -115 or Moneyline at +125
Baltimore +9/+9.5 and the OVER 36 on MNF
New England/Indianapolis UNDER 56.5 (this total seems a little too high to me)

~~~
Allrighty; there's what I've got so far and my reasoning for them. Follow them if you want; fade them if you wish. Have fun y'all.

[ensign_lee]

Update:

Tennessee Titans -4 (-110)
3 units at JustBet
I've increased my Titans bet from 2 units to 3 units at -110.

Denver Broncos +3 (-115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Lions offensive strength (passing) will walk right into the Broncos defense strength (passing). And I don't think that the Lions are truly versatile enough to overcome this Broncos squad.

Green Bay Moneyline (+115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
When I first saw this line, I stayed away because I thought "duh. Green Bay.", which usually means the public will be all over it and that the play is doomed. But the public is only on it at around a 60/40 clip, which is surprising to me. I think GB is the better team here, and that the Chiefs are going to have trouble trying to keep the Green Bay defense from penetrating the backfield. If the Chiefs QB has to throw to dig his team out of a hole, that will be playing right to the strength of a good GB defense. On the other hand, I feel that GB is up to the task of scoring on the Chiefs defense; I guess we'll see.

3 Team 7 point teaser (+150) - 3 units at BetTrojan
Green Bay +9
Arizona +10.5
San Francisco +10.5

The opponents in this are, in order: KC, TB, ATL. Not exactly known for being offensive powerhouses (KC in the past, but not so much this year). I think getting the points in these matchups will be very valuable, and should the visiting team not win, they shouldn't get blown out. Let's see what happens.

[ensign_lee]

Arizona Cardinals M/L (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Forgot one:

This is based purely on the Pinnacle leans + theGreek lean. They're holding -113 and -125, respectively, while most of the rest of the books are holding -110. Huh. Plus, for some reason or other, it seems like around 65% of the bets are on Tampa. I may increase this to two units later, depending on line moves; we'll see. For now, one unit.

[yahoonino]

atlanta is a favorite cause they play sf ,both team sucks the home fied is worth 3 point,if i where you stay away from those 2 looser

[ensign_lee]

atlanta is a favorite cause they play sf ,both team sucks the home fied is worth 3 point,if i where you stay away from those 2 looser

I get that, but +170 is too tasty to pass up. I think SF wins this game often enough to make this bet +EV.

Plus, if the Falcons fans are anywhere near as discontented as I think they are, there will be little, if any, home field advantage present.

[ensign_lee]

Buying back my Green Bay bet with

Kansas City -2.5 (-110)
1 unit at BetTrojan

The line movement on this game has made me nervous. Now, Pinnacle and theGreek both hold leans against me. Yes, i know that I will lose 2 units if KC wins by 1 or 2. Hopefully, that doesn't happen.