[Mr Handicapable]

I can't sleep...ok lets see what you guys think? First of all if the Pats can block your D-Line without having to double team anyone then you can forget it! We've all seen the ridiculous time Brady has to throw so far this year! Teams are afraid to blitz and want deep help for Moss but then you get nickeled and dimed down the field by everyone else! You have to have atleast 1 dominant rusher i.e....Freeney, Osi (NYG), Haynesworth/Vanden Bosch (Titans) to force the Pats to doubleteam and weaken their overall protection. IMO you have to blitz from different areas. The Colts did force Brady into 4 picks in the regular season matchup last year...mainly on pressure and tipped balls which new receivers can't completely fix! I would start 5 DBs and if they run...then they run? With Moss, Welker, and Stallworth in the game..the Pats blocking isn't really setup for the run! Lastly, you have to control the ball and score atleast mid-30s yourself. Dallas picked up 98 yards in 14 carries and the Pats LBs are fossils but if Brady bombs you into a big deficit you can only run so much. The World Champion Colts are at home and if the Pats can light up Bob Sanders & Co. for 38 or more and the Colts aren't competitive...then its time to place the Pats among those rare teams like the Chicago Bulls or Montana/Rice 49ers that simply can't be beat unless injuries hit! They've already walked right thru Dallas and San Diego.
Pittsburgh isn't as talented as those 2 IMO! Let's see what happens!

[SBR Lou]

I can't sleep either. And if I knew how to defend the Pats, I would not be posting about this game on SBR at 3AM. I'd be a big bad defensive coordinator getting ready for Sunday.

I'm not going to break down the game, because I will drive myself nuts repeating the same stuff that has been mentioned already. There are probably no unique points to be made. Everyone knows you've got to pressure Brady, pressure Manning, blah blah. All it comes down to is execution. That's all. Who is going to execute through four quarters?

[regularguy]

I can't sleep either. But it's a bit earlier out west.

These are two damn good teams. I drive myself crazy over the stats, but in the end, it seems to me that when you put teams like this together, in the heart of the season, a lot of it comes down to stuff like team chemistry, and hunger, and concentration -- stuff that's hard to cap. I can't quite put my finger on it, but the Patriots just seem to have it right now. They are playing like crazy, scowling angry men, but somehow they seem to be having lots of fun doing it.

Here's how they can "show some class" next weekend: beat Indy by 20+.

[slacker00]

Fight fire with Fire. Outscore them. That's what Indy does best.

This should be the grand-daddy of all Indy-Pats games in a legendary series. Indy 79 Pats 77! HAHA. Game ends on a safety in OT after the Pats force the first Colts punt in the game. Colts down punt inside the 5, then end the game with Sanders sacking Brady in the endzone on a safety blitz.

[mgcolby]

Blitzing only works if you can jam Welker at the line. If Welker gets open the defense is ****ed. The other out for Brady is the RB a lot of times you will see Faulk make a chip block, release and catch the dump pass from Brady. If you give Brady time he has been dead on with few exceptions (3rd quarter against the Browns, couple of overthrows against Dallas).

Really I would go with 2 down lineman (Freeney and Mathis) 3 LB's and 6 DB's. The most important issue is making sure the defenders tackle (something Indy struggled with mightily last year), broken tackles against the run in this type of defense will kill them(nothing earth shattering, I know).

That is how NE beat St. Louis in the SB and the Colts in 2004. Give different fronts have a LB play with his hand down, lots of movement to mix it up. This is also what the Pats did against Dallas which is why they were able to run, Belichick conceded the run and made Romo work for his yards in the air. The only difference between what I wrote and what NE did, is they used 2 DL, 4-5 LB's and 4-5 DB's.

[Redchevy]

NE will roll BIG time Sunday and anyone who thinks they won't, are out of their minds or haven't watched NE yet this year!!!

[etothep]

by playing dirty and going for knees

[slacker00]

NE will roll BIG time Sunday and anyone who thinks they won't, are out of their minds or haven't watched NE yet this year!!!

I've seen the Patriot games. Have you seen the Colts games? It's nearly the same thing. The Colts can score virtually at will.

Brady might throw 6 TDs against the Colts and still lose. This is what seperates the Colts from the rest of the opponents the Pats have faced this year.

[Ksmynutz]

How Do You Defend the Pats?

Call in the Air Force to shoot down the passing game!!!

[VegasDave]

I've seen the Patriot games. Have you seen the Colts games? It's nearly the same thing. The Colts can score virtually at will.

Brady might throw 6 TDs against the Colts and still lose. This is what seperates the Colts from the rest of the opponents the Pats have faced this year.

Nearly the same thing?

Team A Scores: 34, 34, 38, 38, 38, 48, 49, 52 (41.4)
Team A Win Margin: 17, 21, 21, 21, 24, 24, 31, 45 (25.5)

Team B Scores: 22, 29, 30, 31, 33, 38, 41 (32)
Team B Win Margin: 31, 2, 6, 18, 19, 22, 24 (17.4)

Team A or Team B?

And what on earth makes people think the Colts can keep up?

The Patriots have crushed (by 17+) the 2nd (Dallas), 4th (Cleveland), 6th (Cincinnati), and 8th (San Diego) highest scoring offenses in the league.

The Colts have only played one team in the top 10 in the league in scoring; the Texans (10th). And that was WITHOUT Andre Johnson! They only won by 6!

I LOVE the Colts and HATE the Patriots but I'm not letting that blind me into thinking the Colts have a shadow of a chance!

[imgv94]

[slacker00]

Nearly the same thing?

Team A Scores: 34, 34, 38, 38, 38, 48, 49, 52 (41.4)
Team A Win Margin: 17, 21, 21, 21, 24, 24, 31, 45 (25.5)

Team B Scores: 22, 29, 30, 31, 33, 38, 41 (32)
Team B Win Margin: 31, 2, 6, 18, 19, 22, 24 (17.4)

Team A or Team B?

And what on earth makes people think the Colts can keep up?

The Patriots have crushed (by 17+) the 2nd (Dallas), 4th (Cleveland), 6th (Cincinnati), and 8th (San Diego) highest scoring offenses in the league.

The Colts have only played one team in the top 10 in the league in scoring; the Texans (10th). And that was WITHOUT Andre Johnson! They only won by 6!

I LOVE the Colts and HATE the Patriots but I'm not letting that blind me into thinking the Colts have a shadow of a chance!

Sillyness. You made my point for me.

Pats win by 25.4 avg, Colts win by 17.4 avg. The only thing that proves is that Bellichick is more fond of running up the score than Dungy.

Comparing the Colts to the Cowboys, Browns, Bengals, etc is stupid. Do you seriously think the Cowboys are on par with the Colts? If the Cowboys & Colts happen to play in the Super Bowl, do you seriously think the line will be EVEN?! No way. That's what kills me. Cowboys were 5 point dogs hosting the Pats a few weeks ago, and I was all over the Pats. Now Indy is 5 point dogs in at home, same as Dallas. Something is very wrong with this line, unless you think Dallas is every bit as good as the Colts. If you think Dallas is anywhere near as good as Indy, I simply disagree.

Besides, playing the numbers game only works in fantasy football. I don't care if Cincy is the 6th ranked offense in the NFL, they still suck. At some point you've gotta really understand what these numbers mean, if you're going to use them. These particular numbers only act as filler for Sunday morning pregame bull sessions. Pretty much meaningless when the teams actually line up to play.

[Rollins08]

The only way to get to them is to blitz non stop. There o-line is so good that if you don't brady will pick you a part. Your going to still give up points but at least you'll get a big sack once in a while and maybe force them to punt a couple of times.

[Duckgawd]

I think the way to controll the Pats is to Controll the ball..... Thier best weapon is thier offense so the longer you can keep them on the sideline the better! Indy is very capable of doing this. If they put togeather 10,11,12 play drives that eat up clock, that will be a great advantage! With a stong runner and great passing attack, they should be the best contender to do so. On Defense, I have no idea, you have to get pressure some how on Brady, knock him down a couple times and get under his skin, and Zone defense might work better, by showing brady some room to throw, and then closing in and trying for Turnovers...... Pats have a lot of weapons as well, and I still think the best way to play NE is to controll the ball, and keep the offense off the field!

[VegasDave]

Sillyness. You made my point for me.

Pats win by 25.4 avg, Colts win by 17.4 avg. The only thing that proves is that Bellichick is more fond of running up the score than Dungy.

Comparing the Colts to the Cowboys, Browns, Bengals, etc is stupid. Do you seriously think the Cowboys are on par with the Colts? If the Cowboys & Colts happen to play in the Super Bowl, do you seriously think the line will be EVEN?! No way. That's what kills me. Cowboys were 5 point dogs hosting the Pats a few weeks ago, and I was all over the Pats. Now Indy is 5 point dogs in at home, same as Dallas. Something is very wrong with this line, unless you think Dallas is every bit as good as the Colts. If you think Dallas is anywhere near as good as Indy, I simply disagree.

Besides, playing the numbers game only works in fantasy football. I don't care if Cincy is the 6th ranked offense in the NFL, they still suck. At some point you've gotta really understand what these numbers mean, if you're going to use them. These particular numbers only act as filler for Sunday morning pregame bull sessions. Pretty much meaningless when the teams actually line up to play.

Ok, one point at a time. First of all, I agree that the Colts are in a league of their own when compared to the other 30 teams in the league NOT named the Patriots.

The Patriots are in a league above the Colts.

A) "The only thing that proves is that Bellichick is more fond of running up the score than Dungy."

Oh really? First of all, before I even show you any numbers, I'd like to argue that "running up the score" isn't always as bad as people make it seem. Obviously in the Redskins game, that was running up the score. But in the NFL, I have seen on more than one occasion a team score 21 points in a 5 minute span at the end of the game (TD, 3 and out, TD, onside, TD). Giving yourself a comfortable lead is not the same thing as running up the score.

Week 1: the Pats tacked on 10 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th quarter... but then the Colts tacked on 17 4th quarter points to a 14 point lead heading into the 4th.

Week 2: Pats up 24 - 0 at the half, score a TD in the 3rd and 4th in response to SD TDs in the 3rd and 4th.

Week 3: Pats take a 10 point lead into the half, add 14 3rd quarter points and finish up a 3rd quarter drive in the 4th quarter for another 7 (10 mins left in the game), then don't score again.

Week 4: New England only up 14 when they score their last TD with 6 mins left on Cinci. I think thats still a reasonable time to score.

Week 5: 20 - 0 lead at half on Cleveland, no scoring in the 3rd, then 2 TDs to respond to 2 Cleveland TDs in the 4th (plus 2nd TD actually a 15 yard fumble recovery for a TD)

Week 6: Pats up 14 at the end of the game, score en route to running out the clock in closing seconds (7 plays, 5 runs, 2 passes were one short one for a loss of 2 and one to keep the drive alive on 3rd down)

Week 7: Pats take a 42 - 0 1st half lead, score 7 unnecessary points in the 4th... but this could have been a 60 or 70 point effort if the Patriots wanted it to be.

Week 8: Patriots run up the score on the Redskins.

The ONLY game I see any misconduct on the part of the Patriots is the Washington game. Then again, if Bellichick was a respected coach, instead of hearing "unclassy" we'd be hearing "sending a message". But whatever. The Patriots average 10.75 4th quarter points per game to the Colts 8.14 4th quarter per game, which is right on par with the regular outscoring. And trust me, I don't think the Colts put up 0 against the Titans and only 3 against the Texans in the 4th ON PURPOSE.

B) "Cowboys were 5 point dogs hosting the Pats a few weeks ago, and I was all over the Pats. Now Indy is 5 point dogs in at home, same as Dallas. Something is very wrong with this line, unless you think Dallas is every bit as good as the Colts."

False. Most people will agree that the Colts are a better team then the Cowboys. But lets take a look at the scores to that point in the season:

Dallas 45 - New York 35
Dallas 37 - Miami 20
Dallas 34 - Chicago 10
Dallas 35 - St. Louis 7
Dallas 25 - Buffalo 24 (Crazy game as you know)

So to this point in the season, we didn't know how bad the teams they beat (besides the Giants) were going to be, and this team looked pretty damn good and deserved the respect of being among the top in the league (and still do at 6 - 1).

1 month later, we have seen the Patriots onslaught continue and have come to realize this may be one of the great teams ever assembled. If they played Dallas THIS week, Dallas would be much more than a 5 point underdog. You can't use spreads from a month ago to draw equal signs. A LOT of things change in a month. Including realization of just how real this team is.

C) "Besides, playing the numbers game only works in fantasy football. I don't care if Cincy is the 6th ranked offense in the NFL, they still suck. At some point you've gotta really understand what these numbers mean, if you're going to use them."

Yes, they suck, but not on offense. I'm not trying to argue that they are on par with the Colts; my point is simply that if you take the league average of points per game (21), the Patriots have played 4 teams with higher, while the Colts have only played one.

Isn't it possible - just possible - that one of the reasons the Colts defense has looked so good is that it hasn't really been tested?

I know what the stats mean, and I know that there is a lot more to the game then just stats. I won't, however, ignore them and write them off as fantasy fodder because they don't agree with which side of the game I am on.

[SBR Lou]

That's an excellent post Usckingsfan31.

[Gary11746]

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[imgv94]

^^

Why haven't the mods erased this post?

[buzzsawl]

The colts are fast in the secondary but not tall. Do the Pats like they used to do the colts. Chage D at line and keep the ball away.

[slacker00]

usckingsfan31,

A) So, we basically agree that the Pats numbers are soft.
B) Nothing has changed in a month, except the Pats putting up more soft numbers.
C) We'll turn a blind eye to Cincy's D, if it makes our case.

Thanks for trying.

You're still living in a fantasy world if a 40 point drubbing of a lesser team can equate to any meaningful conclusion when playing a quality team in the Indianapolis Colts. Truth is, the Pats have yet to get involved in a real game yet this year. They'll have one this weekend. I still have this game graded at about 50/50, and the Pats will win half the time, but I've still got solid +EV getting over 2-1 odds betting on the Colts.

[Mr Handicapable]

I don't get the "Colts haven't faced a good offense" nonsense? The Colts opponents have a much better record than the Pats opponents...PERIOD! Not that it really has any bearing on this game anyway! Back to my main point...the interesting thing to me and one of the things I love about this rivalry is that Brady is about the only Colt opponent who even attempts to throw deep on the Colts! I watch every Colts game and opposing QBs simply refuse to take a deep drop and throw the ball downfield. They stick w/dumpoffs and slants, etc...because they're so afraid of Freeney and Mathis...especially on our fast surface! No wonder Freeney only had 5.5 sacks last year! Kind of hard to get a sack when you're being double-teamed and the QB takes a 3 step drop! There was some reason Brady threw 4 PICKS in the regular season game in Foxboro last year! I was at the game with the Bengals last year and they beat the hell out of Carson Palmer since their system includes alot of deeper drops for downfield throws. I hope Dungy has the Colts DBs up tight on the Pats receivers and dares them to throw deep. You will get beat..probably more than once...and I realize it goes against Dungy's philosphy..but desperate times require desperate measures! IMO it's the only way to get pressure on Brady! The Redskins have a decent secondary and they stayed back to defend the deep ball...we saw how that worked out! Brady will work underneath all day!! Win or lose I'm with my boys all the way! GO COLTS!

[VegasDave]

Damn.

When the Patriots win 42 - 28, you'll just say "Yep, 50/50, this coin flip happened to go the Pats' way".

[Skankdog]

Look for the Colts Defense to go low to the knees early and often.

[mgcolby]

Look for the Colts Defense to go low to the knees early and often.

That would be absolutely moronic of them. Neither team will do that because it would be mutually assured destruction. I tend to think both coaching staff's and defenders are smarter than that.

[NapoleonEli]

I would try to throw the Pats off by playing dirty. I mean you can clip acouple players, throw some cheap shoots or even better put alittle pressure on the qb and HOPE Brady makes mistakes .. .

[pokernut9999]

I don't get the "Colts haven't faced a good offense" nonsense? The Colts opponents have a much better record than the Pats opponents...PERIOD! Not that it really has any bearing on this game anyway! Back to my main point...the interesting thing to me and one of the things I love about this rivalry is that Brady is about the only Colt opponent who even attempts to throw deep on the Colts! I watch every Colts game and opposing QBs simply refuse to take a deep drop and throw the ball downfield. They stick w/dumpoffs and slants, etc...because they're so afraid of Freeney and Mathis...especially on our fast surface! No wonder Freeney only had 5.5 sacks last year! Kind of hard to get a sack when you're being double-teamed and the QB takes a 3 step drop! There was some reason Brady threw 4 PICKS in the regular season game in Foxboro last year! I was at the game with the Bengals last year and they beat the hell out of Carson Palmer since their system includes alot of deeper drops for downfield throws. I hope Dungy has the Colts DBs up tight on the Pats receivers and dares them to throw deep. You will get beat..probably more than once...and I realize it goes against Dungy's philosphy..but desperate times require desperate measures! IMO it's the only way to get pressure on Brady! The Redskins have a decent secondary and they stayed back to defend the deep ball...we saw how that worked out! Brady will work underneath all day!! Win or lose I'm with my boys all the way! GO COLTS!

Theses are the powerhouse's they have faced.

NO 18 PPG
TENN 20 PPG
HOUS 22 PPG
DEN 17 PPG
TB 18 PPG rb's out
JAX 16 PPG backup qb last 3 qtrs
CAR 18 PPG 4th string qb played against them

not much there that I see

[cartay]

Colts maybe will try to do the same thing the Pats used to do against them in the early 2000's: ball control on offense and physical play on defense.

[regularguy]

Theses are the powerhouse's they have faced.

NO 18 PPG
TENN 20 PPG
HOUS 22 PPG
DEN 17 PPG
TB 18 PPG rb's out
JAX 16 PPG backup qb last 3 qtrs
CAR 18 PPG 4th string qb played against them

not much there that I see

Thanks for laying that out there pokernut. Concise, useful information.

[LLXC]

Suicide blitz every down...

[babytyger]

Patriots will crush Indy! Guarantee win!!!!!!!!

[manny24]

as we speak the colts are trying to figure out a way to move the stadium so the pats can't find the place on sunday.

[Samhain]

Clock management is the key.

The Colts have the ability to march down the field slowly and chew up the clock keeping Brady & Co. on the sidelines.

They will wear down those old guys on defense.

27-24 Colts.

Most important rule of thumb. When everyone is on one side, go the other way

[mshanedub420]

DONT LOOK INTO THE GAME TOO HARD. PATS BY 21, Indy wake up call, Monday the discussion will be............so is this really the best football team ever to play the game?............., For some reason the game reminds me of the Superbowl between Pitt and Seattle. It was obvious the Steelres were going to win, 75% of the public picked them, and they still rolled into the $, Pats is the obvious money maker

[mshanedub420]

I would try to throw the Pats off by playing dirty. I mean you can clip acouple players, throw some cheap shoots or even better put alittle pressure on the qb and HOPE Brady makes mistakes .. .

the last thing you want to do is piss them off, then it's personal and they'll try to win by 40

[mgcolby]

Clock management is the key.

The Colts have the ability to march down the field slowly and chew up the clock keeping Brady & Co. on the sidelines.

They will wear down those old guys on defense.

27-24 Colts.

Most important rule of thumb. When everyone is on one side, go the other way

Where does this myth come from? Because they have a couple of older LB's and one older safety?

Warren (26) Wilfork (26) Seymour (28)

Vrabel (32) Thomas (30) Bruschi (34)/Seau (38) Colvin (30)


Samuel (26) Harrison (34) Wilson (27) Hobbs (24)


Vrabel isn't playing like he is "old". Bruschi and Seau rotate and it seems to keep them fresh. Colvin is playing extremely well and I don't think anyone see's Thomas as playing "old". Harrison is the only person over 30 in the secondary and many Pats fans wondered if he was going to start when he came back due to the progress made by James Sanders.

Next don't be shocked to see the two oldest LB's not on the field other than 1st down as some combination of Randall Gay and James Sanders will be added to the secondary as an additional Safety, with Harrison moving up and playing more as a cover LB for Clarke.