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NFL Week 7 Plays
Sides
Falcons +9
With both teams coming off prime time games and opposing results, it is no surprise that the Saints are trading over fundamental value after their upset win in Seattle. Is the market jumping the gun here? I think so. Last week the Saints scored over 14 points for the first time all season (hard to fathom from a nine point favorite) and just their second in which they have kept opponents under 31. The Saints offense is underachieving and shown little signs of improvement. Only holding one small fundamental edge offensive edge via the ground game, the Falcons could continue to stall opponent’s drives and force clock deprivation from scoring drives. Leftwhich may be a work in progress, but with Harrington’s recent regression and his offense losing faith, Leftwich should prove to be at least a spark plug if not a fundamental improvement as well. The Falcons are out of favor and rightfully so. But so should a Saints team who have lost their last six as favorites. Until the market adjusts, I will take the inflated points.
Dolphins +17
I could understand one making a case to simply not bet against the Patriots, as they simply are a covering machine. But there are no bad teams to bet on (or against) just bad prices. With books taking a chronic beating by lopsided distribution of Patriot backers, they are starting to inflate lines at numbers not seen for years- and hoping it will stick. There is no doubt inflation of “fair value perception of books” has influenced this line and created value on the Dolphins. Although the Patriots hold an edge in every fundamental faucet of the game, there is enough evidence the Dolphins can keep this within the spread at home. With the improved play of Brown, expect the Dolphins to employ a grind out method that tries to slowdown the pace of the game. The Patriots biggest weakness (or more appropriately least impressive strength) is their run defense, which only increases the chance of employing such a strategy and sticking to it. Although the Patriots rarely show letdown performances, coming off their big win last week and facing two tough teams the following two weeks does raise a little doubt. The Dolphins have shown the ability to play better against the Patriots than fundamentally expected in recent years.
Bucs +1
The Bucs are not as “sexy” or flashy as their counterparts this week, but they play a much better, more consistent, and well rounded brand of football than their counterparts. Garcia’s grittiness and leadership has added a new element to the Bucs offense that continues to be discounted by the market. The addition of Bennett adds a change of pace back that could have an immediate and material impact on this game against a team that lacks the necessary gap assignment to contend with his speed (just watch Westrbrook against the Lions a few weeks back). Expect the Bucs to attack early and often, while having success on the ground and through the air, as the Lions slumping defense has shown too many holes to contain well balanced offenses. The Bucs defense has also played very solid, and is very well coached. The coaching effect pays big dividends against one dimensional offenses like the ones the Lions bring to the table. The Redskins put out a quasi blueprint to stop the Lions last time out. The Lions are not the ideal team to back coming off a bye. Bucs should win this by more than a field goal.
Bengals -6.5
There is not a game on the board containing more underachieving teams than this one. However, it is the Bengals team that provides much more upward mobility, a variable not fully reflected in the line. Although one could make the case that it is wise to take the points when two underachieving teams are involved, I don’t feel that holds true in this particular game. The Bengals brand of football is built for blowouts and high scoring affairs, which means when they play well, points don’t matter as much in their games compared to others. In their 21 wins dating back to 2005, only six have been within the stated spread of 6.5. The Jets on the other hand are not built for coming back, backdoor covers, are shootouts. Pennington prevents them from such, and so does their inability to stop the run. I will take the Bengals offense over the Jets struggling defense any day, while the Bengals injured, and struggling defense should improve off a one dimensional offense by stacking the box with 8 to help out their injured front.
Eagles -5.5
Although such a notion may not hold as true compared to recent weeks, the Bears line continues to be anchored by false hope and last years team. Last year they overachieved, this year they are underachieving, but also not very good. The Eagles are better than their record indicates, while their strengths are directly exploiting the Bears weaknesses, creating hidden value into the spread. Although it is the Bears offense getting most of the blame for their downfall, it is their defense (none more than Urlacher) that should be heavily criticized for their recent demise. Don’t expect their run defense to improve much this week as they face one of the most efficient running games in the league who has the necessary speed to attack their main weakness. The Bears will also pay the price for stacking the box to overcome this shortfall, as their injured secondary will also be overmatched by McNaab’s ability to spread the field. The Bears offense lacks the consistency to keep this one close, while Griese should regress from last week, as he faces a much better pass defense.
Steelers -3.5
No team has more anchoring bias in football compared to the Broncos at home, as the once potent “Mile High Effect” is no longer a factor. The Broncos have yet to cover a spread all year, a downward trend dating back well into last season. There line has been especially inflated at home in recent years, where they have covered just one of their last twelve. Although they may put forth an inspired and improved effort coming off a bye week and getting blown out last time out, the bottom line is that they have little to work with and should be outclassed by an elite team flying under the radar thanks to the success of the Patriots and Colts. The Steelers defense should contain Henry, and force Cutler to play a more prominent role in this game. Cutler has regressed and has yet to live up to his potential. The Broncos defense is old, and struggling. Their run defense has been exploited and lacks size. This is not something you want going up against a Steelers team that could employ a power running game. The Broncos main strength is their two starting corners. The Steelers, like the Chargers, are one of the few teams that could easily adjust for this strength, and utilize the slot, tight end and running backs in the passing game. On the surface, it appears the necessary adjustment process has occurred for the Broncos home failures. But even laying 3.5 is not a full market adjustment in my opinion. I will lay the points.
Totals
Min/Dal Under 46.5
Not sure exactly how much influence the notion of both teams partaking in games that reached at least 65 points last week had on this line, but it appears too high to pass up the Under in my opinion. Don’t expect the Vikings to have nearly the same amount of success on the ground this week, as the Cowboys have one of the stingier run defenses in the league, and with fear of the Vikings passing game, can put Williams in the box where he is better suited and force Petterson into a grind it out mode. No matter the success, the Vikings will be committed to the run and slow the tempo of the game down, as they lack the tools to contend in a shootout. The Vikings offense is only as good as their run game makes them, and their run game should make them mediocre at best this week, and force them into a grind out mode that eats up a lot of clock. The Cowboys do hold a decisive edge in the air- and that is a concern. But with the way their run defense has been playing, the Vikings have leverage playing zone and utilizing a bend- don’t break philosophy. If the Cowboys jump out early, expect them to eat up clock with Barber, while the Vikings are not good playing catch up, making a backdoor over less probable.
NE/Mia Under 51.5
Not only are the Patriots spreads being over inflated (albeit still covering) but so are the Overs in the games they are involved in, as their offenses performance has taken attention away from their solid defense. Although the Dolphins defense has been horrid all season, they always seem to give Brady problems. Although this might not be the case in this game, it is almost certain the Patriots should have the upper hand on defense, especially defending the pass. If this game does turn out to be lopsided, this total is too high to support one directional covering. If it does become a two directional game, it will be thanks to Brown, not Lemon, who should be overwhelmed by the different looks. This means long drives that eat up clock and keep Brady off the field. Either way, this total is inflated, much like the Cowboys/Vikings game, as both these teams were involved in a shootout last week.
KC/Oak Under 37.5
The most attractive Unders in my opinion are in games that involve two defenses that hold only a slight, but decisive edge in most every faucet of the game (most importantly the passing game). This game, more than any other this week, I feel that notion holds true. Although the Chiefs defense has been overachieving a bit and getting by with facing sub par or slumping offenses, I feel they possess the necessary tools to keep this Raiders offense dormant. Culpepper looked lost last week, while the Raiders passing game remains one of the least efficient in the game. This does not bode well, as it is matched up against the Chiefs biggest strength on their team. If the Raiders want to have success with the ball, they will have to run as much as possible. The Chiefs bend don’t break philosophy should demand clock time and make it hard for drives to end up in the end zone if the Raiders do have success on offense. The Chiefs offense has been just as dormant as their counterparts. Although they possess one of the best backs in the league, his productivity is handcuffed by the poor play of their offensive line and the ability of opponents to stack the box out of a lack of fear of the Chiefs passing game. The Raiders pass defense is one of the better ones in the league, and also holds a decisive edge over the offenses passing offense. Expect the Chiefs to use a heavy dose of running and eat up a lot of clock with their successful drives as well.
Chi/Phi Under 42
The Bears continue to be appealing on the surface as an Over play, but it is due to faucets that lack game to game sustainability (i.e. special teams scores, big plays allowed on defense, and defensive scores). The Bears offense is heavily committed to the run, lacks big play potential, and should be overmatched by this Eagles offense. Griese, although mistake prone, is more ideal for Unders than Grossman. The Eagles offense is still not there yet, and the Bears should be inspired to put forth a solid effort on defense after the embarrassment last week. Nonetheless, the Eagles biggest advantage is on the ground, and not in the air.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
