[bigboydan]

Just an FYI guys...

Kyle Boller will start at quarterback for a second straight week this Sunday in Buffalo.

[jon13009]

Covers.com : C. McAlister out (knee). Could be trouble for the Raven secondary.
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Stats fav: BAL(-3) + BAL Bye next week.

BUF coming off a bye + HTA
BAL had double digit win at home now is the fav away (overrated)
BAL may be looking to PIT in 2 weeks
BAL injuries (McAlister,Heap,McNair) + Anemic Offense away from home.
Everett walking, boost to team moral
BUF wants to stuff old teammate W. McGahee
BUF at 1-4 needs this win.
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Strength of Schedule:
BAL W: NYJ (20-13 week 2), ARI, SF,STL
BAL L: CIN, CLE.
Pure statistical padding for BAL - possibly the easiest schedule so far in the NFL (and now they go to BUF? - a paranoid person might think the NFL was padding the BAL's schedule to make the mid season MNF PIT matchup look even better.

BUF W: NYJ (17-14 week 4)
BUF L: DEN, PIT, NE, DAL.
One of the most difficult schedules any team has had to face to date.
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Regardless of the fact BUF's D is the worst ranked in the league, BUF's D should be able to stop BAL's anemic offense in the tough confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium. BAL beat a decimated STL team at home last week, but that is not saying much. The real question is whether BUF's offense can generate any points against a hurting BAL secondary.

The people in BUF are getting restless and Jauron is feeling the pressure. Look for BUf's 2nd string QB to try and step up and pull out a win outright by a FG or less - but take the points.

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TUE:Public 74% like BAL -3 / THURS: 66% - BAL -3/ FRI : Public 61% -BAL -3. / SAT: 59% BAL / SUN 55% BAL

source:
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...-betting-chart
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On Baltimore to Win:
ESPN (NFL live, Salisbury) BAL / Peter King (SI/NBC) - BAL / Logical Approach Newsletter BAL
Waloksky Milan -3 BAL/ Primo Sports BAL / Redzone Sports BAL

On Buffalo to win:
Dr Bob: BUF 19 BAL 16. / Doc's Sports 4* Buffalo +3 / Winning Points NFL *Buffalo
Gold Sheet BUF 16 BAL 13 / Pointwise BUF 17 BAL 16 / Beck stat predictor median BUF (-.79)
HONDO BUF / ESPN Swami BUF / Cappers Access BUF / EZ winners BUF / Dino BUF /
Brandon Lang BUF / Ethan Law BUF 17 BAL 13 / Lenny Del Genio BUF / Gaffney BUF /
Net Prophet +3 BUF / Sebastian BUF / Big Al BUF

Hilton - 92 pick BUF / 50 picked BAL
top 10 pickers - 5 picked BUF
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Systems:
BAL - Bye week next
BUF - bet AGAINST home team (that wins by double digits) last week (BAL 22-STL 3) then travels (overrated)

Fade Public - BUF
While the public betting percentages have become more even, this game is looking like a contest between the public (early week square bettors for BAL) versus the Touts/Stats and "fade the public guys" who like BUF. Makes the outcome even more interesting.

While I hate the "fade the public take the home dog" players, because this is nothing more than a simple system play, they could well be correct this time.

The betting tally seemes to move closer to 50/50, (with more betting towards BAL at 55%) as the end of the week approaches. Perhaps the public opinion changed due to the "experts" as more analysis leaned towards BUF, and the public looked more closely at the game itself.

This game is a base statistical/perception take on BAL versus a situational/in depth take on BUF
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Play:

BUF + 3 - 1 unit play:
BUF ML - 0.5 unit play