[nep1293]

Not a bad Week 6, had the Packers -3 so 7-5-1 for my actual bets. The line movement seems to help me out each week to get a better record than the opening lines. Could have had a few more wins this past week. Raiders, Jets, Packers all had their chances to cover.

---------------------------------------------------------
Week 6 Record
(7-6 , 53.85%)

Yearly Record
(47-36-6 , 56.63%)
---------------------------------------------------------
WEEK 7 PICKS
Cardinals (+6) @ Redskins ..... 56.39%
Falcons @ Saints (-7) ..... 60.60%
Ravens @ Bills (+3) ..... 54.21%
Vikings (+10) @ Cowboys ..... 56.06%
Patriots (-14) @ Dolphins ..... 100%
49ers (+10) @ Giants ..... 56.06%
Buccaneers (+2) @ Lions ..... 62.26%
Titans @ Texans (+2) ..... 54.14%
Chiefs (+2.5) @ Raiders ..... 62.26%
Jets (+6) @ Bengals ..... 56.39%
Bears (+5.5) @ Eagles ..... 58.37%
Rams @ Seahawks (-8) ..... 59.40%
Steelers (-3.5) @ Broncos ..... 52.11%
Colts @ Jaguars (+3) ..... 54.21%
---------------------------------------------------------

There were some tough spreads to pinpoint the true opener this week. That is very critical for my system to hold form. Hopefully I did good with the numbers.

Obviously the Patriots are not a 100% pick, there arent too many Home +14 games to look at, past games have gone to the favorite. But with the way the Pats are killing everyone this year they may just be a 100% play.

[tblues2005]

nep,

Maybe that is why the Pats line has moved up to -17 or maybe even higher than that by weeks end, I do consider it a 100% play considering they are just clobbering everyone that they play.

I like your Saints edge, I think they have turned it around the way they looked on Sunday night. Other plays could go either way this week considering all of the injuries.

[nep1293]

nep,

Maybe that is why the Pats line has moved up to -17 or maybe even higher than that by weeks end, I do consider it a 100% play considering they are just clobbering everyone that they play.

I like your Saints edge, I think they have turned it around the way they looked on Sunday night. Other plays could go either way this week considering all of the injuries.

I really don't see how anyone could bet against the Pats at this point. Why even take the chance. I don't have anything to back me up here but I think they will set a record for most "cumulative points favored by" over the course of the year. This is 3 games already where they will be 17 point favorites. Frightening

[ws1975]

Uncertain QB situation in Arizona. I would take the Redskins.

[nep1293]

Uncertain QB situation in Arizona. I would take the Redskins.

I hear ya, but the line reflects the QB situation. If Warner or Leinart were in there it would probably be Skins -3 or so. Last week Carolina had an uncertain QB situation and looked what happened there.

[LT Profits]

Hi nep,

I have the same question here that I asked in CFB forum. Can you break down the 47-36-6, 56.6% record down between favorites and dogs?

Thanks.

[Teasem]

That Cardinals line has really moved, if the chart holds true for that game +9 AZ is a bargain.

[nep1293]

Hi nep,

I have the same question here that I asked in CFB forum. Can you break down the 47-36-6, 56.6% record down between favorites and dogs?

Thanks.

I have Home Dogs being 13-3 , Road Dogs at 17-18, So 30-21 overall for dogs, I don't have the favorites done yet but that would make them 17-15. I'll break that down into Home and Away later.

It looks like the system is very favorable to Dog plays.

[Rollins08]

Your record is great. I may have to go with some of these picks.

[nep1293]

That Cardinals line has really moved, if the chart holds true for that game +9 AZ is a bargain.

Agreed, Rattay isn't terrible. Give him another week with the offense and I can see a close game. I think Boldin comes back so that should help a little

[nep1293]

Your record is great. I may have to go with some of these picks.

Thanks, good luck with your plays.

[Teasem]

Agreed, Rattay isn't terrible. Give him another week with the offense and I can see a close game. I think Boldin comes back so that should help a little

...........and I'm still not sold on the Redskins

Heavy dose of Edge and Receivers that can go up and make the play, I'll play 1 unit on AZ this week to cover

[cobra_king]

I have Home Dogs being 13-3 , Road Dogs at 17-18, So 30-21 overall for dogs, I don't have the favorites done yet but that would make them 17-15. I'll break that down into Home and Away later.

It looks like the system is very favorable to Dog plays.

You wouldn't by chance have this same breakdown for previous years would you? Specifically just the dogs?

[nep1293]

You wouldn't by chance have this same breakdown for previous years would you? Specifically just the dogs?

I have them. When I get a chance I'll post all the results I have to go through all of my spreadsheets to get the actual numbers

[nep1293]

Here is the breakdown for past years for The Chart

2002
Road Dogs (54-32)
Home Dogs (31-20)
Road Faves (15-16)
Home Faves (45-29)

2003
RD (54-46)
HD (19-17)
RF (18-12)
HF (39-28)

2004
RD (52-37)
HD (28-22)
RF (17-8)
HF (41-37)

2005
RD (55-51)
HD (17-33)
RF (18-5)
HF (40-19)

2006
RD (71-32)
HD (31-11)
RF (18-14)
HF (40-24)

2007
RD (17-18)
HD (13-3)
RF (9-3)
HF (8-12)


2005 was a big year for favorites in general, 2006 was a big year for dogs in general. Draw whatever conclusions you can from these numbers

[cobra_king]

Very much appreciate the information and your time spent on it.

[nep1293]

Very much appreciate the information and your time spent on it.

No Problem, I was curious about the numbers too.

[Skidcom]

Very helpful.thank you......I think all of this information is great!