Tennessee Titans (+3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Game -115 Pinnacle
The thing that scares me the most in this game is turnovers. If the Titans make to many mistakes it will cost them but if they play smart and protect the ball they will win this game outright. The Titans have an edge in both special teams and their offense matches up quite well against the Tampa Bay defense. Why normally I would not back a team who is much more turnover prone than their opponent I’m going to have to put that aside this week because of many overwhelming indicators and ATS statistics which favor the Titans in this match up. When all else is laid out on paper there is one area that pushes me from a strong lean to a solid bet on the Titans and its that went the game is on the line and its close in the end I want my money on the Titans. They are the team who is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games. They have yet to give up a single point this season in the 4th quarter and their defense has stepped up time and time again to keep them in the game. The Buccs on the other hand seem to play quite well when things are going their way but have a tendency to panic when things don’t. I predict the Titans cover the spread as the most likely occurrence or the Buccs win this game by a bunch do to Titans mistakes.
Match up favors Titans | Turn Over favors Buccs | Home Field offset by he +3 line | Intangibles favor the Titans which make this worthy of a bet.
The intangibles being: The Titans are the team that is better mentally prepared. Their players and coaching staff perform much better under pressure than the players and coaching staff of the Buccs (This is not a knock on Gruden, he is a hard working and passionate coach but he tends to let his emotions get the best of him sometimes in pressure situations). I suppose the best way to say it is that the Titans are a close knit bunch driven by a winning attitude. There is no quit in this team. I suspect Vince Young has a short memory and will execute better in this game then he did the last. If he does, The Titans will win this game outright.
It is important to get this line Titans +3 (Pay as little as possible but, be willing to lay as much as -120). This is a no play at anything worst than Titans +3 -120 (Do not pay -125, do not take +2.5).
My play:
Tennessee Titans (+3) -115 Pinnacle 1.15u to win 1u.