[Dark Horse]

Fade of the week: Indianapolis Colts

Colts are in the flat spot for the week. This season they've already benefited twice from an opponent in this spot (NO and DEN, both visiting teams). Since I put faith in this system (55-24 ATS since 2005), I have to conclude that the Colts are presently overrated. They could well be without Marvin Harrison and Bob Sanders. Tampa Bay is hot and comes in with an overlay that favors road dogs (not all overlays are positive). Last, but not least, I expect the dogs to be barking again this Sunday.

Play On: Tampa Bay +10 (or +10.5 Jazz)

[MJFtheGenius]

AFC owns the NFC , the smart play is the Colts IMO.

[Dark Horse]

Could be. All my plays are fades this Sunday. There is a chance that TB won't show up, but I have to go with my most consistent fade angle.

[MJFtheGenius]

GL to you Darkhorse, Im on the colts though.

[SBR Lou]

Tampa Bay also lost their left tackle and starting RB for the season. I'm not saying Pittman can't step up, but that's one less weapon they have on the ground. The Colts for the most part have been shutting down teams from running at home lately, if this happens, there's no argument to be made for Jeff Garcia picking apart the Colts through the air. He may strike Galloway deep or find some blown coverage, but I don't think he can engineer a victory here if forced to pass. Because Peyton Manning will win the QB contest, and has more places to throw.

[slacker00]

10 points is a lot of points to lay in the NFL. You've gotta be very certain that one team is very overmatched. I'm not convinced in this game. Bucs are running a little too hot to be getting 10, even on the road against the champs.

The last game between these two had the Bucs up 35-14 with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter. One for the ages. I doubt Gruden has forgotten that game and might have a certain extra motivation this week.

I'd call the injury situation a draw.

Garcia isn't my favorite QB, but he's capable.

AFC/NFC angle. Colts are 2nd best in the AFC right now, I'd put the Bucs at 2nd/3rd best in the NFC. So, basically, these two teams are kinda similar within their respective conferences. The Super Bowl line has the AFC -7 against the NFC. Given the Colts are at home for this game, give them another 3, Colts -10. Not much of an edge taking this angle.

Conclusion: there isn't a huge edge either way. Probably a "no play" for most people. Personally, I just have a hunch that the Colts come out flat with Harrison & Sanders on the injury report, the silent leaders on offense & defense. Bucs give the Colts a scare. Playing the Colts just doesn't seem like the sharp play this week.

[EGGY6199]

10 points is a lot of points to lay in the NFL. You've gotta be very certain that one team is very overmatched. I'm not convinced in this game. Bucs are running a little too hot to be getting 10, even on the road against the champs.

The last game between these two had the Bucs up 35-14 with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter. One for the ages. I doubt Gruden has forgotten that game and might have a certain extra motivation this week.

I'd call the injury situation a draw.

Garcia isn't my favorite QB, but he's capable.

AFC/NFC angle. Colts are 2nd best in the AFC right now, I'd put the Bucs at 2nd/3rd best in the NFC. So, basically, these two teams are kinda similar within their respective conferences. The Super Bowl line has the AFC -7 against the NFC. Given the Colts are at home for this game, give them another 3, Colts -10. Not much of an edge taking this angle.

Conclusion: there isn't a huge edge either way. Probably a "no play" for most people. Personally, I just have a hunch that the Colts come out flat with Harrison & Sanders on the injury report, the silent leaders on offense & defense. Bucs give the Colts a scare. Playing the Colts just doesn't seem like the sharp play this week.

Nicely put this will not be a blow out and I think the spread is about right> I however will be playing the Bucs as I think injuries will have more effect on the Colts this week than Bucks. Pitman and Graham can do the work of williams. Plus that D is very good

[durito]

I don't really get this line at all. Tampa is very solid team, it shouldn't be more than 7 by my numbers.

Nevertheless teams that win and cover 3 in a row, are terrible bets on the road against winning teams.

[regularguy]

I think crazyl has the key to this one. Losing your running back and left tackle is a major pill to swallow. It's really sort of sad for TB. I like Garcia, and he might have been able to do something against the Colts otherwise. As it is though, I would not bet on TB under any circumstances this week.

On the other hand, I do think the Colts may be ready for a letdown. Ten is still a pretty big line against the Bucs. I'm just staying away from this game.

GL if you bet it.

[win1011]

just gave up my email address and discovered i'm in no-where land...any body talk fbal here?

[onlooker]

I still like the Colts. I see -9.5's some places now, but would love to see it drop more.

Good luck guys.