Shaun Alexander will wear down the league’s No. 25 run defense. Though we are actually sold on the 49ers being a team on the verge of breaking out, they are without key chain mover tight end Vernon Davis.

Seattle can also move the ball in the air as they average 7.4 passing yards per attempt against teams normally allowing 6.4. Seattle’s domination of San Francisco suffered a setback last year when they were swept.

To be sure, the formula for beating Seattle will be more complicated than it was last season. In both games, the 49ers kept pounding running back Frank Gore into the line and when he broke into the secondary, the Seahawks safeties tackled - or rather, didn’t tackle - like Chickenhawks. Holmgren didn’t mess around. He dumped both of the old safeties last winter and signed two new ones, Deon Grant (from Jacksonville) and Brian Russell (from Cleveland).

Grant and Russell can tackle. With Alexander and Hasselbeck both in the line-up, which was not the case last year, they are one of the top teams in the NFC. They get the win today.