[ritehook]

I don't often play the first or second week of NFL. But I'll make an '07 exception and go with two teams, and a possible third.

Carolina -6.5 - Houston has more probs than the new QB can fix. They beat KC last week - so what? Herm Edwards was brought in to Arrowhead to improve the defense. He did that to some degree, but destroyed the NFL's highest powered O in the process. Say goodbye to KC next year, Herm.

Tennessee +7 Tenn covered twice last year vs Indy. Lost by a pt on road, and won by 3 at home. VY is the real deal, and Indy isn't better than last year. Maybe a bit worse. Love taking points in key situations early in the season, in divisional games especially.

And I'll make a minor wager on Cleveland if the spot jumps to 7. Just for the reason that a home divisional dog of a td is usually (not always) worth a bit of a bet first few weeks.

All early NFL "handicapping" is more impressions and angles than anything - not much to go on. The teams, year to year, don't change much - nowhere near as much as they usually do in college, where LYs champ may trot out of the tunnel this season with a new QB, mostly new OL, new RB and half of the defenders.

[moneyplays]

Ritehook,

Nice you see you betting this week. I think the first two weeks are a great time to bet. Vegas leaves the door open to come in and rob the vault and make a quick getaway before the alarm sounds.

I'm on board with you on Carolina and Tennessee. Houston has one player (Dunta Robinson) who doesn't allow every receiver in the league to have a career day. The o-line is going to get eaten up alive by the Panthers D. They brought in Jordan Black to help at OT. I don't think its going to help much. A couple of stats from last year:

Texans are 3-6 ATS past 9 on the road
Texans are 2-8 ATS past 10 in September

I'm tired and lazy and will save the reasoning behind Tenn. The big thing is that Tenn plays the colts tight especially at home. The last two games were close and they will be pounding the football. We will see really how well the colts D can handle against the run.

I disagree with the browns bet. Even if you do get -7 which is available at most books. Both games @ cleveland and @ Cinn were blowouts. Derek Anderson is terrible and they would have a better chance with Frye. Yeah he may have a stronger arm but he has a tendency to make poor decisions with the ball. IE: Force passes in tight coverage. So, how could the bengals lose? Well, if one of the big three goes down or if Anderson plays out of character and owns a tough cincy defense through the air.

Palmer is 5-1 lifetime against Cleveland with 13 touchdown passes. In the team's last meeting of the 2006 season, Palmer threw for 275 yards with three touchdown passes for a 120.7 QB rating. Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 6-2 against the Browns in his career, including 3-1 in games held in Cleveland. The Browns' Crennel is 0-4 against both Lewis and the Bengals as a head coach.

Palmer mentioned his shoulder is the reason for missing some key passes monday night. I think as long as the bengals don't beat themselves they should cover easily.

BOL,
mp

[ritehook]

I'm sure there are folks who do well in early NFL season.

It's all in one's approach. You have to use trends and last year's stats, which I'm never fully comfortable with

GL

[dmiles1021]

colts win by 2 touchdowns easily