[ensign_lee]

Hey y'all:

Football season's back upon us! Hurrah! Let's kick it off correctly!

~~~

SageStats ensign_lee


For more detailed analysis of my picks, click the graph! (it will updated automatically as the games are played, so ignore the 0-0 for now. )

~~~
Allrighty, on to the good stuff:

New Orleans Saints Moneyline (+223.44) @ Indianapolis Colts
1 unit at matchbook

The Saints only have to win this game once in every 3 times in order to make this bet +EV. And I happen to think they'll win at least half the time at Indianapolis.

Why? The loss of Tarik Glenn will have a much larger impact than I think people truly realize. As a Texans fan, I know just how much of a problem not having an elite LT or even a good LT is. Everything on the line stems from this position. Everything. Look for Addai to have to squeeze through smaller running lanes and for Peyton to have that split second less than he's accustomed to.

But more importantly than that even are the losses on defense for the Colts. They got rid of both starting corners and a starting LB that was the perfect system player or Dungy's defensive system. Moreover, the Colts are extremely low on depth at the DT position, which I think lots of people have forgotten about. Without the strong rush from up the middle, the Saints will be able to run the ball with Deuce McAllister all day, all the while spelling him with Bush from time to time. Bob Sanders is a good safety, but he can't be everywhere at once. If you look at the Colts defense in the playoffs, the elevated play of the defensive line was every bit as important to the success of the defense as Sander's return.

The Saints meanwhile suffered very few losses during the offseason and should come into this game hungry and happy to prove themselves on a national stage. +223> This moneyline should be at +175 to +180, tops.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-100.52) vs. Tennesseee Titans
3 units at matchbook / bettrojan

I got the line that I did with a little bit of scalping between bettrojan and matchbook. I originally took 5 units on JAX -6.5 (-105) at bettrojan and then scalped that out with two units of TEN +6.5 (+114) at matchbook. Factor in the vig should Tennessee cover and then it comes out to risking 3.01 units to win 3 units.

Jacksonville will turn Tennessee around every which way in this game. Tennesse's defense is entirely predicated on the secondary, but no team will pass on them when they can just run all over them. The Jacksonville offensive line will open up running lanes everywhere against this aging and insufficently talented Titans front 7. Think the JAC/IND game from last year. Actually, you can also think about the JAC/TEN game last year, where Jacksonville trounced them also.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans are in essence running the "10 offensive linemen and Vince Young" offense, which is just not going to cut it. Jacksonville has always been amazing at stopping the run. Look at their draft pick investment on the defensive line and their performance and you'll see that. All they'll have to do is stay at home and contain VY and life will take care of itself. The running backs for TEN scare no one and the receivers are either A) woefully inexperienced or B) Eric Moulds. While Moulds may have a little left in the tank, I doubt it will be sufficient to help lift the load off of the golden boy, VY.

Oakland Raiders -1 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions
1 unit at Skybook

I got the -1 from using the free half point to bring the line down from the -1.5 that was hanging earlier.

I know; I'm betting on the Raiders. WTF am I doing, right?

But let's look at this game objectively. The Detroit lions QB Kitna was barely able to practice this presason, and certainly hasn't been in practice enough to have the chemistry with his receivers that is necessary for the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Lions will either be starting A) an injured Jones or B) an inexperienced RB and you will see the lions struggle offensively. The Oakland Raiders defense only has to be barely above average to contain this offense.

Now, on the other side of the ball, the raiders will probably be starting QB Culpepper. While he was rushed back into service in Miami, he has been given time to heal now and has shown that he can still play in this league. In fact, all he has to do is not do the remarkably stupid things that prior Raiders QB have done and he should be allright. The Lions defense strikes fear in no one and I just don't think that they have the talent required to contain any offense.

Throw in home field advantage for the Raiders and the fact that AFC teams perform really well vs. NFC competition and this makes this bet even more attractive. I'd make this a 2 unit play, but that I don't want to come out of the gates for this season guns a blazing and shoot myself in the face; you know, since I'm betting on the Raiders and all.

~~~
That's what I have so far. I will probably have a play on the UNDER in the Saints/Colts game, but am waiting for the line to climb up further before I place it.

Hope that helped some of y'all. Good luck everyone; go have fun! The season's about to start!

[ensign_lee]

This is the first time I've posted picks here at sbr before; take it easy on the newbie!

[pokernut9999]

Yes they only have to win once in 3 tries here to get profit. But because of network obligations they are only going once tonight.

[ensign_lee]

Yes they only have to win once in 3 tries here to get profit. But because of network obligations they are only going once tonight.

Haha. Nice joke.

[ensign_lee]

Under 53 (-110)
2 units at JustBet

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Oakland Raiders -2.5 (+100)
1 additional unit at Matchbook

Decided I'd risk shooting myself in the face with a two unit play on this, since the Pinny lean is now also involved. Pinny is holding -113 on the -2.5 and everyone else is showing -110, with few exceptions that are showing the -115.

[ensign_lee]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers M/L (+240)
2 units at Skybook?

When I first saw the line open up at -6, I was really surprised. I definitely expected this line to be at -9.5 to -10.5. Fact is, that there are about 4 bets on Seattle for every 1 bet on Tampa. But the line has gone from -6 to -5.5. Wha???

I think that this reverse line move is very telling. Whenever a bet seems so incredibly easy to make that it’s stupid, it’s rarely that easy. I’m confident enough to put two units on Tampa’s moneyline.

I will be playing this later today to try to get the moneyline at maximum value, but will be at the Houston Texans game, so won’t be able to relay the odds until I get back later. My advice is to wait and try to get the best line you can; you know that money will be pouring in on the Seahawks later today.

New York Jets M/L (+229.32)
2 units at matchbook

The Patriots are a good team. There’s no doubt about that. And I do think that they got better this offseason. But do I think all that is enough to warrant them being -6.5 to -6 point favorites AT New York? Accounting for home field advantage and what not, that means that if this game were to be played at New England, the spread would be -12 to -13? Against a team that went to the playoffs last year and didn’t lose any of its core players?

This line is off; this moneyline is off. The Jets are not going to lose this game at home more than twice in every 3 tries. I think that this moneyline presents a good +EV bet.

All ESPN has been doing this season is hyping up the Patriots, all but declaring them unstoppable. If it were up to ESPN, we wouldn’t even play the season. The Patriots would go 19-0 and win the superbowl. Period. End of story.

I don’t buy it. But lots of other people have. The line opened up at -6.5 and has now dropped to -6. And yet there are 2 to 3 bets on New England for every bet on New York.

Even after the suspensions of key players on the Patriots, the line doesn’t move as much as it should. What the hell?

This is enough for me to put two units on this game in favor of the Jets.

Cleveland Browns M/L (+194.04)
2 unit at matchbook

This is another line that I saw and immediately when “wah?” This line should be closer to -6.5 to -7. And even if the oddsmakers didn’t start it off there, it should there now. Damn, sportsinsights is showing 9 bets on Pittsburgh for every one on Cleveland. Wagerline is showing a 3:1 ratio. But the line isn’t moving…at all.

Honestly, this bet makes no sense to me, but then again, some of my best bets never do. Yay blindly fading the public when line moves (or absence of line moves) make no sense.

Buffalo Bills M/L (+155)
2 units at BetTrojan

Buffalo isn’t as bad as ESPN makes them out to be. Denver isn’t as good as ESPN makes them out to be. Couple that with the fact that the Broncos historically don’t do well as an opening day favorite, and that I don’t really have as much faith in Cutler as everyone else seems to and you find my Buffalo M/L bet.

Then you have the fact that there are 2 to 3 bets on Denver for every one on Buffalo. The line is currently at Denver -3. TheGreek, one of the books that sets opening lines, opened this at -3.5. Pinnacle opened it at -3, but then shifted it to -3.5 and then finally back to -3. Huh.

Washington Redskins -3 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

This is a play fading Miami more than it is for the Redskins. I don’t think that the Dolphins are going to do well at all this year. I was going to leave this game well enough alone, but then the Pinny lean was on it for the last day or so, so here I am. Go Redskins?

[ensign_lee]

Typo above:

That should be Tampa Bay for 3 units

[ensign_lee]

Haha. I guess this thread couldn't have been more accurately labeled.

YTD: 1-8-1
Units Won: -13.12 units

The public cleaned up this week, much to my dismay. Shame, but it's a long season and that's why we practice bankroll management.

Of course, if you'd prefer to fade me, fade away!