[r2d2]

OK, last year over at one of the other forums, there was a great thread that Don Dollars had spearheaded all season long. It's success rate was fricking uncanny. Basically, based on the criteria below, it is our job to weed out ONE PICK each week that is the official "SUCKER BET" of the NFL week. It is really interesting in my opinion.

Anyway, this week, there a few teams that fall into this category of "Sucker Bet" or Square play. Minny vs Atl. Public image of the falcons terrible, left with no hope after the departure of VICK. Line has not moved off minny -3 even though majority of public is on minny. other candidates pitt -4.5 vs browns. this falls into the "looks to good to be true" category. Seattle, and maybe NE all a few other that may be this week's contenders.

Would love to hear everyones input on this.

OH YEAH, BY THE WAY, CHEERS TO THE START OF FOOTBALL, FALL, AND BEER!





________________________________________ ____________
For those who were not a part of the thread last year, Don Dollars had 5 criteria for a Sucker Bet. I believe this is what Typhoon was referring to when he started this thread.

Rule 1 - When the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"?

Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side.

Rule 3 - Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it.

Rule 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO?

Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often. WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?

[fearless]

Your post reminds me of a quote I heard which is has always stuck with me. (paraphrasing) "The key to sports betting is not knowing what the line is but knowing what the line should be." The idea is that when you can spot the difference between what the line is and what it should be, it helps you to determine what the traps are.

For example, if a team is favored by 5 when they should be favored by 8 and there's no injuries or anything to account for the difference, you better be on "trap alert".

[moneyplays]

I only two games over 80%.

Steelers 89%
Seahawks 84%

There are 8 games in the 70-79% category. Anyway, I'm not sure if I buy into this whole 'trap' thing. Do you have any real examples you could share?

[r2d2]

I only two games over 80%.

Steelers 89%
Seahawks 84%

There are 8 games in the 70-79% category. Anyway, I'm not sure if I buy into this whole 'trap' thing. Do you have any real examples you could share?

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=407826

here is last years thread. lot's of good info in it, even though a long read. Bear in mind, when the sucker bet says "lose", that means if you faded the public, or got on the other side of the sucker bet, you obviously won.

[crackerjack]

Long read is an understatement...there are more than 1000 posts in that thread. I got through a quarter of it though and did find it very interesting and informative to the point that it might actually change the way I approach handicapping the NFL.

[babaoriley]

Man, if a game has ever reeked of trap potential, it's Pitt vs. cleveland. With so much action on Pitt, the line has stayed at -4.5. That said, I believe Pitt will absolutely kill Cleveland on Sunday and I'm taking my chances with a road dog with a new coaching regime vs. a Frye/Jamal Lewis led offense and a Defense that couldn't stop a high school team from scoring. Now that Bodden is back to "will play" status following his arrest, I count 4 capable defenders out of 11: Wimbley, Davis, Jones, Bodden (maybe Holly would make it 5 but he gets burned frequently).

[White_Tiger]

I think you do missing 1 important there r2d2. The most matter was # of bets. Yes some games with the % very high but not too many people betting into it will not affect much. On other hand those single game with huge amount of bet come in that's when the game start playout funny.
Just my 2cents.

[Benson17]

I think the Steelers are the SUCKER BET.

[Benson17]

Where is Don Dollars?

[crackerjack]

Don Dollars won't show up in this thread...

How do you find a sucker bet in week one? Part of the process was examining how the public thinks based on the previous week's games.

[r2d2]

Don Dollars won't show up in this thread...

How do you find a sucker bet in week one? Part of the process was examining how the public thinks based on the previous week's games.

Why not? I really enjoyed his analysis on this subject last year?

[moneyplays]

My prediction for this weeks SUCKER bet is . . .



Seahawks

Yes, folks I said it. 84+% of bets coming in are for the Seahawks.
TB is going to come through.

BOL,
mp

[Sundram]

[QUOTE=moneyplays;336527]I only two games over 80%.

Steelers 89%
Seahawks 84%

Moneyplays, may I ask where you are getting these #'s from?
sundram

[moneyplays]

[QUOTE=Sundram;338166]

I only two games over 80%.

Steelers 89%
Seahawks 84%

Moneyplays, may I ask where you are getting these #'s from?
sundram

Sure. I'm getting them from the following:

BetUs (Canada + Costa Rica)

Carib (Belize)

SportBet (Costa Rica)

Sportsbook.com (Costa Rica)

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll take a game that I don't think I've seen anyone else talk about ...

DENVER -3 @ Buffalo

I like Buffalo straight up in this one.

[curious]

I think the Texans are the sucker bet of the season. EVERYONE is betting on the Texans, and all the ESPN "experts" are touting the Texans.

So, my money is on Kansas City.

[nevadaside]

If the NFL goes anything like last year......they're all sucker bets. We're all suckers for betting in the eyes of the Books....

[BuddyBear]

There is an even better book out there than pinnacle for determing what the sucker bet it is....

[BatemanPatrickl]

I think the Texans are the sucker bet of the season. EVERYONE is betting on the Texans, and all the ESPN "experts" are touting the Texans.

So, my money is on Kansas City.

Looks like the "experts" knew what they were talking about; EVERYONE is going to win with ease by betting on the TEXANS

[goldengoat]

pittsburgh kicked the shit out of cleveland so i guess that one wasn't the sucker bet (I don't believe in sucker bets btw)

[WestsidePete]

pittsburgh kicked the shit out of cleveland so i guess that one wasn't the sucker bet (I don't believe in sucker bets btw)

anyone who took KC and CLE today were the suckers...

[imgv94]

I think the Texans are the sucker bet of the season. EVERYONE is betting on the Texans, and all the ESPN "experts" are touting the Texans.

So, my money is on Kansas City.

Please don't repeat this bullShit anymore on here..

[imgv94]

KC was the sucker bet..

[WestsidePete]

Seattle kicked ass...no sucker bet

[Bigcrank23]

I guess I was a Huge "sucker" today, I took Houston, Pitt., and Seattle I'll be a sucker all year long and love it!

[WestsidePete]

I guess I was a Huge "sucker" today, I took Houston, Pitt., and Seattle I'll be a sucker all year long and love it!

same for me BC ...took HOU PITT SEA....

[EGGY6199]

Okay the best match up of the week outside of the steelers was the vikings for me:

- Great against the run and average pass D
- Falcons for sure where going to have issues throwing
- Big improvement in the viking Off the year. peterson looked good so drafted him in Fantasy football.

What happens this thread hit home and I went with the Eagles instead. Lucky I couldn't see the steelers losing.

So BOOOOOO thanks for suckering me out of a good play.

[EJandV]

The big lemons were in order of worst :jags biggest fav to lose and at home, eagles at questionable pack team , rams at home, fav raiders at home nothing more than a tossup and so was the rams game . Biggest sucker / lemon to me was the eagles for week 1 . I liked the titans to get it done . For a fav lover it was a very good day . note : before the game I could and would not say that the eagles game was a potential lemon/sucker bet , I would have said the jaguars -6.5 was the biggest . Buttttttt if the browns had won then everyone would try and say it was a sucker bet to take the steelers playing in week one at the browns so with those thoughts I would say that makes no sense . the fact is there will always be favs that dont win or cover day in and day out in all sports as it is a balance thing so trying to determine what the sucker bet is before the game comes on is the process we all do but no one can hit a 100% clip with this , sometimes right sometimes wrong , simply put .

[Don Dollars]

If you stuck with the philosophy you made a killing today! Take yourself out to Dinner. More good weekends to come.

[imgv94]

Don they are asking for you on therx.

[EJandV]

If you stuck with the philosophy you made a killing today! Take yourself out to Dinner. More good weekends to come.

I know you have to be joking . Where are your posted picks before kickoff ? Your principles above are simply if alot of the dogs cash then what you say cashes . If the favs get busy then it makes what you are pushing have lots of holes .

[Don Dollars]

I did not post picks before the game. I did not pretend to post picks before the games. The guidelines to the picks simply lay out the games. It is not always dogs. It is not all of the dogs.

I am not trying to convince you of anything.

[curious]

Please don't repeat this bullShit anymore on here..

I'll say anything I want, any place I want. Don't talk shit to me anymore on here mother ****er.

[EJandV]

I did not post picks before the game. I did not pretend to post picks before the games. The guidelines to the picks simply lay out the games. It is not always dogs. It is not all of the dogs.

I am not trying to convince you of anything.

I like your name by the way . Seriously , if the week 3 nfl results are 12 - 4 favs ats do the stated principles still apply ?
The favs that look like sucker bets are merely the better teams vs the ones that are not very good BY WHAT WE HAVE SEEN , WHAT WE HAVE WITNESSED .
People see the panthers at home playing the texans so you would say ooooh wait a minute thats too good to be true because it is one of the great teams , one of the teams picked to make some noise , against a texans team that we view as a non contender .
Soooooooooooooooo if the panthers beat them by 2 tds it a oh yeah that was ez everyone knew that ......
But if the panthers lose then someone that plays the dogs comes in ans says >>> ummmmm , see there , it was sucker bet , ummm see there it was one of those 2 good to be true games .
Conclusion : there is no such thing as a sucker bet or a lock. The result is simply created by what takes place on the field , on the court , on the ice , in the ring , etc .
We just like to jump up and say see I told you after our strategy is INDEED the result , when your strategy or philosophy crashes and burns DO YOU STILL SAY SEE THERE I TOLD YOU SO , YOU SHOULD HAVE PLAYED IT THAT WAY ............. ? Plzzzz

[Don Dollars]

I see what you are saying. If I was bragging about plays after they were over without posting them before the games were played, that would indeed be quite ridiculous.

The Sucker Bet philosophy takes more into consideration than just games that look "too good to be true". That is definitely one of the criteria, but not the most important. The public was not all over the Panthers. Only appx. 55% of the public was on Carolina and the line moved up from 6 to 6.5 to 7. I did not bet against Carolina and did not consider it a Sucker Bet.