[Dark Horse]

Saints @ Colts

NO +6
U52.5

For spreads up to 7 pts the Colts are an unimpressive 5-11 ATS as home favorites in L5 years (regular season). Meanwhile, Saints were 5-1 ATS as RD last season and 7-2 as dogs. This should be a close game. Late FG to win it?

Public thinks 'Manning, Bush, Drees' and expects a shootout, and the total has been bet up by 2 pts already. No need to wait for 53, because totals hardly ever end on that number. Let's see how the Colts have done for totals set at 50 or higher, as home favorite of a TD or less (i.e. in a relatively close game).

2006
v CIN // IND HF -3.5; Posted total 54.5; Result 50 = UNDER
v KC // IND HF -7; Posted total 50.5; Result 31 = UNDER

2005
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 52; Result 43 = UNDER

2004
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 57; Result 65 = OVER

These are the only qualifying games in the L5 seasons. Clearly, in 2004 the Colts defense wasn't nearly what it is today (as partially reflected in the huge 57 total for 2004 against SD, down to 52 for the same home game against the Chargers one year later). The three games with a posted total within 2 pts of the 52.5 posted for Thursday's game stayed under by an average 11 pts. My projection is for a game with approximately 40 pts.


For the record, the above is based on past results. The past isn't the best indicator for the present. I also use indicators for the game day itself, which support the same plays.


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[pokernut9999]

Agree with the under play but Saints still struggled vs weaker AFC foes last year 1-3. Only beat Cleveland lost both home games. Colts will be pumped for this game. Saints will not win this game and would not pin my hopes on just staying within 6points. Like dogs that have a chance to win.

[Negataur]

I agree with both NO and the under on Thursday night.

To make life easier, I will probably tease both of these to get that spread over 10, and the total to 58.5, or higher.

GL to ALL.

[EGGY6199]

a game to leave alone and enjoy as there are reasons to back both. I like the under however this really is a possible shootout. If the colts get ahead Brees will come out shooting hence a pass for me.

[Skankdog]

Saints will run the ball right down the throat of Indy, take the points/saints

[slacker00]

Saints will run the ball right down the throat of Indy, take the points/saints

Just like everyone did in last year's playoffs, riiiiight?

I'm more worried about the Colts' rookie LT than the Colts run D.

[babaoriley]

Just going to watch and enjoy this one. Maybe the 1st half under hits, but I'm not even comfortable teasing this game in any direction.

[Dark Horse]

I always play two games for sure: the Superbowl and the season opener. Party time.

Hate doing this, but a projected line-up change has Indy qualify for a 48-20 ATS system of mine. I like the Saints much better, but have to go with this.

1.5 units Colts -5.5

[crackerjack]

small bet on under

[White_Tiger]

BOL Darkhorse I also like the Under tonight game. For the team it'll be tough to pick there. Let cash it tonight

[McBa1n]

I'm on the over - favoring colts slightly -- if the line is right... But it won't be.
GL!

[stump]

i've got a smaller play on NO and OVER

[bigboydan]

I went with the under 53.5 in this game DH.

[Dark Horse]

Biorhythms give both defenses the edge tonight. Favors the under, unless they start running interceptions back into the end zone.

[mad]

Play on the Saints ML for me.

Good luck to all.

[pokernut9999]

Interesting tidbit.


Indy is 10-3 ATS when both teams score 20 points or more.


Lot of people dont like these trends , so just throwing it out there for ones that follow these.

[capitalist pig]

Colts -6.0 here.

Later

[HAPPY BOY]

Saints 1st half +3.5 ( 5 units ) GL to all

[Mr Nuts]

like the saints and the over.

[GUNZ-05]

Saints +5

[bradleysnyder]

Trends Mean Dick.......................these Are Two High Flying Offfensive Teams And Poor Defensive.over 53 Is The Play

[icemantbi]

I have 1 Unit on Indy -5.5

GL fellas.

[Dark Horse]

NO +6 = L
U52.5 = W
1.5 units Colts -5.5 = W

NFL 2-1 (+1.5 units)