[nep1293]

If you are not familiar with the system check out the post in the College Football section for Week 1 NCAA Football and read up. But a quick definition. The percentages are based on the opening lines of all NFL games within the last 5 seasons and the outcomes of those games.
**************************************** ****
NFL week 1 is the toughest for me because the opening line was set a month ago and teams have played preseason games, sustained injuries, cut players etc... so there is a little more to interpret.

3 games had significant line movement which affected their percentages, KC/HOU, NYG/DAL and DET/OAK. I'm listing the opening line % for these games. You can adjust with 0.50%points for every 1/2 point, same as in NCAA, that part is not an exact science, but it is useful

**EDIT**
I went back and looked at the previous years and i did use lines that were closer to the season than the actual opening lines for week 1. So the KC/HOU, DET/OAK, and NYG/DAL games will be using the lines as they were this past weekend.
**EDIT**



There are no crazy spreads in week 1 so a lot of the percentages are repetitive.

Saints (+6.5) @ Colts.............57.31%
Chiefs (+3) @ Texans.............58.13%****
Broncos @ Bills (+3) ..............50.14%
Steelers (-4.5) @ Browns........64.33%
Titans (+6.5) @ Jaguars..........57.31%
Panthers @ Rams (-1).............74.55%
Eagles @ Packers (+3)............50.14%
Falcons (+2.5) @ Vikings.........63.10%
Dolphins (+3) @ Redskins.........58.13%
Patriots (-6.5) @ Jets.............73.86%
Buccaneers (+6) @ Seahawks...57.31%
Bears (+6.5) @ Chargers..........57.31%
Lions @ Raiders (-1.5) ............74.55%****
Giants (+5.5) @ Cowboys.........56.81%****
Ravens (+3) @ Bengals............58.13%
Cardinals (+3) @ 49ers............58.13%

The only games that aren't recommended to play are DEN/BUF and PHI/GB. Although Home (+3) went 11-5 last year so I will be taking the Bills and Packers just because I want to bet all the games.

Last year the underdogs had a great year, I think that will continue this year. I think the parity of the league is becoming so insane, we will have every team within 6-10 wins 1 of these years, anybody can beat anybody in the NFL. I don't see 1 team that I would bet my life on that they won't make the playoffs, and probably only 1 that I'd bet my life on that will make it (New England). Crazy times in the NFL.

[btwizzy]

Those percentages are interesting, no real outrageous ones however. Looking at the numbers, I will be playing the JETS if the spread gets to 7 or 7.5 which I have a feeling they will by next sunday.

[r2d2]

Nep, thanks for posting these. You college plays did pretty damn good it looked like in week1. What was the final Win/Loss tally for your college plays? (sorry, to lazy to go and add up myself). Anyway, one question for ya. am i to assume that the higher the %, the safer or "better" bet. I.E. Stonger play? thanks for the insight and digging these plays.

If you are not familiar with the system check out the post in the College Football section for Week 1 NCAA Football and read up. But a quick definition. The percentages are based on the opening lines of all NFL games within the last 5 seasons and the outcomes of those games.
**************************************** ****
NFL week 1 is the toughest for me because the opening line was set a month ago and teams have played preseason games, sustained injuries, cut players etc... so there is a little more to interpret.

3 games had significant line movement which affected their percentages, KC/HOU, NYG/DAL and DET/OAK. I'm listing the opening line % for these games. You can adjust with 0.50%points for every 1/2 point, same as in NCAA, that part is not an exact science, but it is useful

There are no crazy spreads in week 1 so a lot of the percentages are repetitious.

Saints (+6.5) @ Colts.............57.31%
Chiefs @ Texans (PICK)..........63.60%
Broncos @ Bills (+3) ..............50.14%
Steelers (-4.5) @ Browns........64.33%
Titans (+6.5) @ Jaguars..........57.31%
Panthers @ Rams (-1).............74.55%
Eagles @ Packers (+3)............50.14%
Falcons (+2.5) @ Vikings.........63.10%
Dolphins (+3) @ Redskins.........58.13%
Patriots (-6.5) @ Jets.............73.86%
Buccaneers (+6) @ Seahawks...57.31%
Bears (+6.5) @ Chargers..........57.31%
Lions (+2.5) @ Raiders.............63.10%
Giants @ Cowboys (-4)............55.56%
Ravens (+3) @ Bengals............58.13%
Cardinals (+3) @ 49ers............58.13%

The only games that aren't recommended to play are DEN/BUF and PHI/GB. Although Home (+3) went 11-5 last year so I will be taking the Bills and Packers just because I want to bet all the games.

Last year the underdogs had a great year, I think that will continue this year. I think the parity of the league is becoming so insane, we will have every team within 6-10 wins 1 of these years, anybody can beat anybody in the NFL. I don't see 1 team that I would bet my life on that they won't make the playoffs, and probably only 1 that I'd bet my life on that will make it (New England). Crazy times in the NFL.

[nep1293]

Nep, thanks for posting these. You college plays did pretty damn good it looked like in week1. What was the final Win/Loss tally for your college plays? (sorry, to lazy to go and add up myself). Anyway, one question for ya. am i to assume that the higher the %, the safer or "better" bet. I.E. Stonger play? thanks for the insight and digging these plays.

Your welcome r2d2. I like doing this stuff, the math part of it is pretty interesting to me. I feel it's also good to have the picks documented for all to see.

In NCAA Week 1 , the official plays went 14-6 (70%). If you took every team that opened as greater than 50% you would have went 27-16 (62.79%). So the non-recommended games still turned a profit (13-10, 56.52%). Still have the 2 games today but neither of them is an official play.

The higher the percentage is, the more success those spreads have had in the past. We'll take the Rams game since they are the biggest play. The last 5 years, I have home teams that opened at -1 or -1.5 as going 25-9 ATS. Combine that with my weighted formula and the true % comes out to 74.55%.

Road teams +6 or +6.5 have gone 54-42, Road +2/+2.5 went 50-30. Road +3, 75-56. So that's where all those dog picks come from. Road +2/+2.5 is actually a better play on the Money Line than taking the points. 48-33 on the ML last 5 years

It's more of an indicator of past success than future success, but the 2 seem to go hand in hand.

[Big Country 5]

Hey Nep,when will you have your week 2 college up?Also,thanks for posting.I'm always looking for new weapons to add to my arsenal.

Thanks

[pwdump]

keep it up .... looks good bud

[nep1293]

Hey Nep,when will you have your week 2 college up?Also,thanks for posting.I'm always looking for new weapons to add to my arsenal.

Thanks

Week 2 NCAA is up now

[nep1293]

Saints (+6.5) Tonight

All of the picks will be the same as the main list. Eagles/Packers and Broncos/Bills will not be counted as official plays. So I won't update the picks on Sunday

[White_Tiger]

I like your College system nep1293 gl with your NFL system. 1 thing I saw it diff from NFL is that Single games like Sunday night, Monday night and tonight need to bet opposite with those regs sunday games. If you keep closer look you might notice the result from single game and sunday pack game diff. if you use the same system on those bet. Myself I do see the Und/Over line keep move up tonight game. If it was sunday game I'll pick over. Since this is single game I'll bet Und 53.5 on tonight game. BOL all.

[JAHgger4noz]

Week 2 NCAA is up now

Nep1293, do u have a chart for the Totals???
It would be interesting to see the true %ages on these babies.

[nep1293]

I like your College system nep1293 gl with your NFL system. 1 thing I saw it diff from NFL is that Single games like Sunday night, Monday night and tonight need to bet opposite with those regs sunday games. If you keep closer look you might notice the result from single game and sunday pack game diff. if you use the same system on those bet. Myself I do see the Und/Over line keep move up tonight game. If it was sunday game I'll pick over. Since this is single game I'll bet Und 53.5 on tonight game. BOL all.

I didn't notice any real difference on Monday nighters or any other single game compared to the rest of the games

Nep1293, do u have a chart for the Totals???
It would be interesting to see the true %ages on these babies.

I don't have any data on totals, I don't really like playing them so it's not really worth my time to track them