Can playing fantasy football make you a better capper? Conversely, are good cappers the better fantasy players. Like so much else in sports, it's knowing what to do with all the stats you're digesting that can make the difference between a win and a loss.
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Handicapping & Fantasy Football: A Case for the Defense
The sharp handicappers are the ones that do their homework. But all work and no play makes 'The Hammer' a dull boy. That’s why playing in a fantasy football league is such a breath of fresh air -- it’s like homework, only fun.
It’s also a great way to get a handle on the 'non-skill' players that the betting public tends to overlook. Fantasy football isn’t just about offense; most leagues also involve defense and special teams, often in combination.
A typical fantasy team includes a place-kicker and a team defense that also includes the special teams return unit. It’s easy for a handicapper to evaluate kickers; they either make their field goals and PATs, or they don’t. Defenses are a little trickier, which is where fantasy football comes in handy.
Here’s a breakdown of how defenses commonly earn (or lose) points in fantasy football.
Based on this scoring system, the Baltimore Ravens had the best defense last year with 240 fantasy points. This corresponds with the advanced DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings at Football Outsiders, where the Ravens also finished first in team defense.
One of the easiest conclusions for betting neophytes to jump to with this information is that Baltimore must have driven the Under to the pay window at a steady clip. Indeed, the under was 9-6-1 for the Ravens in 2006. But does this money pattern hold for the other top fantasy defenses in the league? Let’s have a look at the Top 10 rankings and the corresponding records for the under.
* Baltimore (240; 9-6-1)
* Chicago (235; 4-11-1)
* New England (171; 10-6)
* Minnesota (162; 7-7-2)
* San Diego (158; 6-10)
* Miami (155; 10-6)
* Philadelphia (153; 6-8-2)
* Buffalo (151; 9-7)
* Green Bay (150; 8-7-1)
* Jacksonville (143; 7-9)
Of these 10 teams, only five had profitable under records. But that has a lot to do with the fantasy scoring system. Take the Chicago Bears, for example. Devin Hester ran for five return touchdowns (his field-goal return doesn’t count in this system), making him one of the top scoring threats on the 2006 Bears. Philadelphia, Minnesota and Green Bay each scored five TDs on defense. It’s not always about keeping points off the board.
But let’s not throw out the football baby with the bathwater. What if we simply take out the categories where touchdowns and safeties are scored? How does our Top 10 look then?
* Baltimore (200; 9-6-1)
* Chicago (185; 4-11-1)
* New England (163; 10-6)
* San Diego (140; 6-10)
* Miami (137; 10-6)
* Jacksonville (131; 7-9)
* Kansas City (130; 8-7-1)
* Denver (127; 8-8)
* Minnesota (126; 7-7-2)
* Pittsburgh (124; 6-9-1)
So much for that train of thought. The Eagles, Bills and Packers (a combined 23-22-3 on the under) dropped off the list, replaced by the Chiefs, Broncos and Steelers (22-24-2). We now have just four teams out of 10 making money.
The problems with connecting fantasy defenses directly to the under are threefold. First, even if you take all those defensive and special teams touchdowns out of the fantasy scoring mix, they still went on the scoreboard in real life.
Second, the under is a product of both offense and defense; when LaDainian Tomlinson scores 31 TDs, the Chargers are likely to go Over the total.
Third, the total is a product of the betting public’s perception of what the final score will be. If they know Jacksonville has a great defense, the total will be low to begin with. Sure enough, the total topped 40 points in just three Jaguars games last year.
Like any evaluation tool, the key to fantasy defense numbers is knowing how to use them. Compare and contrast them with your usual conventional and advanced statistics, and you’ll be in a position to make a sharper bet -- and win your fantasy league.
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Handicapping & Fantasy Football: A Case for the Defense
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