Tough to tell. I like the Texans myself, but if/when LJ signs the line could move accordingly.
The QB situation in KC could also have an impact. If Croyle does indeed get the nod, I think the number will only grow as I can't see the public jumping on a second-year QB making his first career start on the road only getting 2 pts.
I'm assuming that LJ is going to sign, that's seemed to be the consensus in KC, but it's dragging on longer than I thought. I would imagine that would move the line back a bit, but maybe not that much if everyone is assuming the same.
I think Houston should be improved this year, and I definitely side with them as well in this game.
As rjt721 mentions, I think the # on this game will probably depend most on whom they select as starting QB in KC. I drove through KC last week and got some sports talk radio and they aren't real high on Croyle there. I suppose it all depends on where Herm wants to take this team this year versus the next few.
I've been doing some week 1 research, I'll have some more in a few days.
Home team dogs, or teams that are percieved as the worse team (-2.5 or worse) have done well ATS all time in week one.
Home team dogs are 63-52-5 ATS in week one since 1985. That wouldn't apply here at the moment, since i've used the closing lines. However, home dogs have done better versus teams that had a winning record the previous season: 23-14 ATS (kc was 9-7 last season)
I will look into the #'s on small favorites this week.