Wacky season; wacky numbers, adding up to a data-based projection of 11 dogs covering in week 4. ELEVEN! WEEK 4! That’s saying 1 of 2 things: 1. Vegas line-setters are having a collective breakdown; or 2. my algorithm needs more work than I’ve given it. And it’s not like dogs are covering at a high rate; only a little better than 52% thru week 3, but the Vegas lines seem unreflective of reality. Or maybe I’m just crazy. GLTA
The variables and weights used in ranking determinations is not something I’ve revisited in years, and I think a new look is overdue. By the end of the season, it usually is reflective of reality in the major categories, but Special Teams are always a pain to get right. Fussing with the algorithm, however, is more work than I’m willing to put into it now, so I’ll save that for the offseason.
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The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 4
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