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Agreed.Originally Posted by lakerboy
Also the Eagles are great frontrunners with their running game but not convinced Hurts can lead a team back from a big deficit passing the ball. If Chiefs get up 14+, it's going to be a very tall order to come back.
I'm a big fan of Hurts though. Really love the way he carries himself and the way he handled being benched for Tua while at Alabama. He is an easy guy to root for, seems to do all the right things and leads by example.
this fellow mahommes is a magician at times.do NOT bet against him.
Last edited by agendaman; 02-05-23 at 01:36 PM.
Agenda, I understand that.
My thing about putting in a bet on the Chiefs: *What value are we shooting at?
1) If you take the points, +1.5 offers just one landing spot (exactly 1) that's not a S/U win.
2) If you bet the Moneyline, does +105 feel like fair value?
My opinion is that the Chiefs have more flaws. I find the Chiefs hard to back at current price.
Of course, a stand-alone game w/ 14-day bye is going to get dissected to the moon. No surprise there.
The chiefs have the 2 best players though. I know people won't agree maybe saying hurts is better then Kelce but IMO Kelce and mahomes are the 2 best players in this game. Philly might have the next 3 but if you have the best two players you have a great shot to win. I think it's vital for KC to remain a dog. They have some injury concerns but I doubt it matters a whole lot. Philly is solid but I would rather have mahomes then hurts on this stage.
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The coaching level for teams that reach the NFL is ridiculous. They prepare very well for these chess like matches and I don't think there is any reason to see a runaway score. The back and forth of the coaching falls down onto the field with the players. It will come down to the wire and the lock I'm referring to is Mahomes coming through under pressure and Hurts failing under pressure on the biggest stage. I assume the game comes down to the final drive and in that scenario, Mahomes wins and Hurts doesn't.
The Eagles side underestimates how much of the game relies on QBs not making mistakes. Eagles have Hurts who is not good in pressure situations. Why do you think he was replaced in Bama and failed to get OU a win when it mattered? The worst thing that the Eagles can do is fall behind and rely on Hurts to make a play for them. They will need to ground and pound early and keep a lead and continue the ground attack to stay in this game. The Chiefs only need him to make 1 or two mistakes in order to get the advantage they need.
Two weeks is a lot of time to get healthy and you guys underestimate the abilities of up and coming players. They can replace these dudes in a second with the next rising star on defense. The QB position is akin to playing poker with the dealer position the entire time. The outcome of game heavily sways towards the best QB.
I know the Eagles overall are better as a team, but they are going to be coming into the super bowl with no experience mostly, whereas Mahomes team doesn't want to add another loss. The worst thing for the Eagles is being favored in this game. I don't think they can walk in and win a game they are supposed to win. GL on your bets.
Hurts reminds me a lot of Dak's first year in Dallas. He's not as good of a QB as you all want to believe. He has a GREAT team around him. The weak links (him) are going to get exposed on the grandest stage. Mahomes is the greatest replacement for Brady, don't bet against him. (Even though I bet against him vs the Bengals lol)
Your mistake is assuming the game will come down to the final drive. Hurts doesn't have to carry this team. They have the best offensive line in the league. The same way that the Niners shut down Hurts running and the deep passing game early is probably what the chiefs will do. But they're no match for the Eagles running game, especially on that left side behind Mailata and Dickerson. That's over 700 lbs of blocking that no team has been able to stop. Once the Chiefs start leaning to that side is when Hurts will bootleg to the right for the big gain. Hurts took over the 4th qtr against the Niners, he doesn't have to go downfield. Eagles will chew up the clock with the run game and short passes to Goedert. The only thing IMHO that can stop Philly is the turnovers.
I'm definitely leaning on the Over being the lock though. I don't see any outcome where the Chiefs win and the total is under 50 points, and I also don't see the Chiefs holding the Eagles under 24 points.
Philly is the better team.
Basically this bet if you choose KC comes down to Mahomes, Reid, and the refs.
Pass Intererence! Roughing the Passer!
But Philly will get theirs. Question is can they play smart enough for 4 Q's to win the Superbowl.
This ref crew (Cheffers) is 1-11 on Overs in playoff games.
His crew always finds ways to screw up scoring drives.
i often respect your analysis, but this one is a johnny vegas type post.
this post and thread won't end well. mahomes has lost 2 afc chips and a superbowl btw. the eagles are supremely better team. hurts job isn't to win the game. he will help the o line, running game and defense win. the eagles are +12 turnover ratio. led the league in sacks. and average over 150 yards rushing with over 230 ypg passing. 3rd in the league in pass per attempt and ran the ball more than any team in the league. the best team wins more often than the best qb or te lol unless its brady and gronk.
Okay. How did they do during the regular season?
That's how I see it. My guess is they win easily and will reassessed as dynasty material, or at least what passes for dynasty material in the modern NFL. I say this because people have been in awe of the J. Allen-era Bills for a few years now and they haven't even been to a SB ... so the hype of a convincing SB win turns any team into an invincible juggernaut for years to come.
Last edited by ByeShea; 02-07-23 at 02:01 PM.
Ya know, you're probably right. Just today I was set to drive to Kansas to place $1750 on the Eagles to score 2.5 TDs and just as I was about to leave my truck wouldn't start. Had to go get the battery recharged. Then I come back and see the over has gone up to 51, and the Eagles total TD has gone to 3.It was at 2.5 and -120 last night. Sigh. Congrats to anybody who got that bet in, thats a LOCK.
Aged quite well. Would have liked the Chiefs to get the FG there at the end and watch the Eagles get a shot with 3 mins to tie or win the game, but refs had to ruin a great game. Sad.
Hurts fumbled early to partially prove my point, with 3 mins left he would have had to force a throw at the end. Chiefs did him dirty at the end with that kickoff exposing he doesn't have a deep ball. Unsportsmanlike... Kelce is a piece of trash with his end game speech, needs to show some class.
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