started it before but screwed up in note pad pasting over the whole thing
1 :30 am here now
dertydude
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Posted: 9 hours ago #1
Around 2 am last night I got that feeling I have got the last 20 years. Because of the respect I have for the legend Don Jaun and because I wanted to root for joe and the bengals I was a lil sad. I can’t control it and I will never bet with my heart on this game so my money will be going in on the RAMS - whatever they are tomorrow when I get to the casino. I will also be betting them on the alternate line because I believe this one could be decided by 7 and even more points. Again I’m no capper. I’ve been very lucky over the years on this game only. I wish i could get these feelings all year long but It doesn’t happen. All I can do is hope the streak continues. Good luck to everyone and I hope everyone enjoys the game and stays safe. No drinking and driving. There are plenty of options so make the right decision
WARNING this dude posted this 5 seperate times in same forum this is Fake i never saw him post over there
JUST went back to 40th post not one thread this guy posted none in playoffs either 2:35 am now
GpsStrikezone
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Posted: 8 minutes ago #1
I have helped so many of you…
And saved a few dollars I’m sure. It’s amazing amount of people who lose and if I wasn’t on here; how many more. I don’t want a thank you. I just want all the haters to know, some of these people listen to me and will win! I’m happy for all of those people. They are the smartest guys in the room tomorrow.
But for you other folks, god help them. Maybe they will get a strong allergy medicine to stop being allergic to winning on Monday. After the rams fall flat on their face, is any of them worthy to be humble and say I was right? No. None of them and that’s why they lose. Every year!!!
It’s honestly sad that people can’t see what is.
I tried to help and I’m so happy to get this done tomorrow and finish what I started.
Basically it’s a mortal combat ending. I have you and the rams at… Finish him…
before this game started.
It ends in epic fashion. One of the best SuperBowls ever for one team! You can be the other.
BENGALS WIN
vanzack
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Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.
I had to put that in my thread title. I love when people say that. You can rest assured, I have overthought everything.
NFL Season: +27.49 units
NFL Playoffs: 8-4 +12.95 units
Rams -4 (4.5 units)
I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written. These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet:
* There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line. Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.
* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense. Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.
* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games. The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games.
* The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry)
I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things....
In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8. That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8. That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4).
But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season. Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values. In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation. 95% will fall within 2 standard deviations.
So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:
68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.7
95% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2
11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation. So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV.
To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads.
But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers...
The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season. They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense. The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24.
24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB. Plain and simple. And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season.
I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close. Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now.
Rams 38 Bengals 16
GL all. The SB is always bittersweet. DK NFL Super Bowl 56 Selection
Digitalkarma
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I feel like I better get this in before the hook disappears. Maybe it will go back up later, or maybe it won't who knows but this number is fine by me. Most online/offshores have dropped to 4. Everywhere in Vegas is still at 4.5 except for William Hill. I'm getting my bet in at Circa first time betting the Super Bowl there. I was gonna wait it out for a few more days but today is the day. If I get a better line later I'll tack on some more but think this may be as good as it gets..
Bengals +4.5 *large*
Bengals ML +176 *medium*
many reason to like them, and I will share my thoughts later and have it up by the 9th. This team kind of remind me of the Saints from 2009.. that's all I will say about that for now. Good luck as always. Will try to rebound from my terrible Super Bowl pick from last year with the Chiefs, had a chance to hedge out with that tragic incident but decide to rode it and was probably my worst defeat on the big game since Denver got smashed by Seattle. I am currently 8-4 SUATS in the Super Bowl, let's make it nine.
DK's Final Testimony
All the talk has been about the obviously glaring disadvantage the Bengals offensive line will have versus the Rams defensive line and how Joe Burrow won't have time to throw. While this may be true to some degree, let's try to peel back the onion layers and take a look-see shall we..
Is the Rams defensive line all that plus a bag of chips and more? Sure it is.. as long as their opponents have a QB whose names are Dalton, Wentz, Goff, Geno Smith, or Daniel Jones(to name a few). What do they all have in common? Quarterbacks who fold under pressure, make bad decisions, and poor throws! How bout Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins? They ain't it either. Then there is Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence, poor rookies didn't have a chance.. Mills didn't do too bad in garbage time putting up 22 on Rams defense and even outperformed this season's #1 draft pick by comparison.
Let's not anoint the Rams defense yet like they're the '85 Bears or something. They've played some average competition and they're middle of pack in scoring defense. Anyway you get the idea..
OK exactly as i said over n over they beat loosers with bad QB's Bears ,Texans Jaguars Giants Lions Vikings and Ravens 2nd string huntley losing the whole game 19-17 won with a FG 20-17 but Ravens still had chance to get a FG and win
but poor huntley blew it final minute
don juan
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Posted: Feb. 9, 2022 - 1:12 PM ET #3
And his coach is doing an outstanding job, particularly with halftime adjustments! The Bengals have been extremely competitive on the road, with no losses of more than five points. In fact, they only lost two of their 23 games (including preseason) by more than five points all year, which is remarkable, when you think about it.
It reminds me of a counter puncher; they take your opening punches to see what you've got, then modify accordingly. And the crowd noise does not appear to distract the Bengals, as proven by the playoff games in Tennessee and Kansas City.
The Rams, on the other hand, have put all of their chips on the table, adding Matt Stafford along with a couple of big-name players during the season. They mortgaged their future for this year, yet I have the impression that something is still lacking there. Perhaps they haven't spent enough time with the new players coming on board, I'm not quite sure.
Earlier in the season, they beat Tampa Bay by ten points, but in the playoffs, the Bucs rallied to tie the game when the Rams' whole season was on the line. Despite the fact that the Rams were way ahead, and the Buccaneers were without a number of key players.
Moreover, I'm apprehensive about the three division games versus San Francisco. I just cannot get them out of my head, With all of their talent, you'd figure the Rams would annihilate them. The 49ers, on the other hand, destroyed them in the first game. And in the last two at home, they allowed Garoppolo to win one of them and were fortunate to win the last by three points. This trend worries me.
After much deliberation, I'm going to trust my instincts and take the points. Based on what I have witnessed from Joe previously, and this season, I cannot go against him. His track record is far too impressive. I believe he will keep the game close, probability of overtime.
Therefore, my selection for Superbowl 56, is Cincinnati + 4.5
Thank you in advance for your replies; whether you agree, disagree, or mock me, it's fine.
If I lose my marbles before SB-57, always remember this..." family comes before wagering."
Best of luck and Godspeed.
Your old friend, Don Juan
Wizerguy
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2022 - 11:38 AM ET #1
Playoffs 14-9 +31.5 units
NFL YTD: 144-136 ( +67 units)
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 (-110) 10 unit play
Enjoy the game !
A DOLPHIN PICKED THE WINNER!
ramco
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2022 - 8:30 PM ET #1
This dolphin is 8-0 in SB picks!
BENGALS IT IS EXTRA LARGE! adding JIMMY FALLON's Puppies PICKED Bengals by a NOSE
WRESTLEMANIA 38 aka SUPERBOWL 56 Investments
DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: Feb. 9, 2022 - 2:51 PM ET #1
What's Up FAMILY ?peace_5peace
BEST of HEALTH,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK to ALL an_woomoneyeyesan_angelclover
Many THANKS an_praiseto everyone here on covers for all your help, and time since last superbowl ..
RAMS -4.5 /48.5
BENGALS
-200. +165
Wow this is a tough one to handicap , no result here should shock us ..Good luck if you're betting either side against the spread, Money line or the total.....
I could spend hours giving reasons to back either side or the number , but why bother when there are some fantastic prop bets on the board that offer much more value IMO ....
The TRAIN69 Super Bowl 56 Extravaganza
TRAIN69
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2022 - 8:02 PM ET #1
Hope all is well with my brothers in Covers nation!!an_cheers
First SB in awhile I've been back and forth on. I like Burrow and Stafford. I think the RBs and WRs are pretty identical. The Rams with a big edge on defense, especially their D Line vs Cincys O Line. Gotta give the special teams and coaching edge to Cincy. If this was a regular season game, this would be a pass....but, its the SB....so....no passing. Will probably add some random parlays tomorrow and sunday as well with college hoops action.....
No strong leans, going with a teaser middle attempt as I have a vision of Cincy winning by 2 (26-24 or 23-21)
tommyblinds
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Posted: 15 hours ago #1
Lets keep this really easy . Bengals are a very very nice story . And we all know how the networks , the announcers love these stories. But that facts are the Titans should have won by 2 scores had NINE sacks . Yes Tannenhill IMPLODED and YEs the Bengals secondary caused that. They are above average . KC scores 3 points before half and no momentum change and the CHEIFS probably win too. To me this comes down to a HORRIBLE O line vs a DOMINANT D line. a fast very talented and strong DEF line. Will the RAMs beat 9 sacks ? It will be close . I say 5-6 and I see a strip sack. Ramey will take away Chase for the most part. Mixon the TE and Higgins will excel but it will be not enough.
Contrarian21
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2022 - 4:48 PM ET #1
Too much Burrow love on here, ESPN (CNN), just going to watch the bloodbath from afar. He’s an exciting young QB, don’t get me wrong, but the Rams are far better than this Bengals team. Stafford will be a top 10 QB all time, his maturity and experience will show on Sunday. Rams have held the last 9 opponents to an 18.2pt ppg avg. Their playoff opponent QBs have combined for 55% completion percentage with a 3:4 TD/INT ratio with just one wideout to reach 75 receiving yds. KC averaged 6 yds per carry and should be here if they would have continued with the run game. Any rational coach will know to run it down the Bengals throats on Sunday, hopefully McVay takes advantage of this. Akers will have a field day. Henderson is a smokescreen and Michel is just insurance. Krupp prop bets under is he smart play, yet 90+% of tickets are in the over. Red flag.
Rams -4
Rams ML
WHAT why BET rams ML when you get better price - 4 points this is stooopid i seen in others threads and fer sure IT makes no sense because IF rams win by 3 points you lose the -4 bet -108
BUT win the higher cost ML bet -195 to win $100 IN other words your MINUS $8.00
NOW taking Bengals +4.5 at -115 and ML +165 is great beacuse Taking 4.5 you bet 230$ to win $200
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LETS look through others eyes for ths superbowl
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