A Week by Week Approach
08/09/2007 07:10 AM
By: LT Profits Sports Group
Bettors that pass on the NFL preseason are missing out on a lot of outstanding betting opportunities. At no other time of the year are coaches’ actual game plans and player rotations known in advance, and coaches and teams tend to have more or less the same old characteristics every year. Why not take advantage of this?
The first full weekend of the NFL Preseason is upon us, and while many bettors could not care less, preferring to wait for the regular season, those players are missing out of some outstanding opportunities.
NFL Preseason – A Week by Week Approach
Personally, we feel that the preseason is a gold mine, and our record over the years confirms this, as we are now 63-38, 62.3 percent against the spread in NFLX since 2002, and that includes our loss with New Orleans last week. What people feel to realize is that the information needed for beating the preseason is right there at their fingertips, if they would juts put in a little effort tp do the research.
After all, in what other sport do coaches reveal their game plans and player rotations before the games, and then stick to them most of the time? Well, most of the time, all it takes is a trip to the websites of each team’s local newspapers, and you will already have most of the information you need to beat the game. Sure, quarterback rotations and depth at other positions are crucial, but oftentimes you will discover that a passing team wants to run the ball more or a running team wants to open up the offense in an attempt to work on those weaknesses. Such information would suggest to you to play against the team with the “opposite” game plan, as well as pointing you to the Under for the team working on the run and the Over for the team looking at the passing game.
While getting this information is critical every week, it is especially important in Week 1 of preseason when coaching tendencies are most important in staying ahead of the game. For example, it is good to know that that the Dallas Cowboys are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 preseason openers, or that the Philadelphia Eagles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 such games. On the other hand, the Oakland Raiders are 12-4 in their last 16, as they have a habit of fooling their supporters with excellent preseasons (4-0 last year), only to stumble when the real games start. For you total players, the Over is 7-3 in the last 10 Carolina Panthers openers.
It should be noted that the New Orleans Saints used to be a good bet in the preseason, but they have apparently changed philosophies under head coach Sean Payton, and they looked awful last year before their memorable run to the NFC Championship Game. It looks like more of the same this year, based on their lethargic performance in the Hall of Fame Game.
Now in Week 2, good-to-average teams tend to flip-flop their opening performances, while bad teams actually tend to do well. Keep in mind that this is speaking in very general terms however, and could be superseded by what one digs up in the coach’s game plan. For the most part though, keep your eye out for home favorites that scored seven points or less in their last game while simultaneously allowing 24 points or more, as these clubs have bounced back with a bang going 24-7 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. From a team-specific standpoint, the New England Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Week 2 games, while the Dallas Cowboys have continued their indifferent play, going just 4-12 vs. the number.
The reason we say bad teams do well in Week 2 is that those that won their opener want to give their fans some false hope by building some momentum, while those that lost their opener want to win a game before Game 3 when the regulars play more and bad teams are usually at a disadvantage.
Week 3 of preseason, while not exactly like regular season betting, is probably the closest thing as this is the week when the regulars see the most action. So with the possible exceptions of the Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts, Cowboys and now the Saints, teams that apparently could not care less about these games, this is the week where good teams that underperformed the first two weeks may be good investments. A nice supporting angle would be to look for home favorites that lost their first two games, with the last loss being by double-digits, as these clubs are 16-8 ATS. The Seattle Seahawks in particular have shined in Week 3 in the past, going a fantastic 18-4 ATS the last 22 years, while the New York Giants are just 3-10.
Then comes Week 4, which has become the toughest week to cap simply because the starters are oftentimes held out entirely. Still, it is not an impossible week to beat, especially if you give added weight to the underdogs. Then again, this is a good policy at all times as preseason underdogs of +4½ points or more are 43-24, 64.2% ATS since 2002. Also, teams that are either 3-0 or 0-3 straight up are usually good bets, as the former group wants to finish undefeated, especially if it is a team not expected to do much (see 2006 Oakland Raiders), while the latter group wants to avoid going 0-4, again excepting teams like the Colts and Cowboys that just cannot wait for the real season to start.
Finally, there are some teams that perform the same the entire preseason regardless of the week. The Baltimore Ravens are 19-9 ATS in all games the last seven years, the New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS at home, the Denver Broncos are 13-4 ATS at home vs. the NFC and the St. Louis Rams (“The Greatest Show on Turf”) are just 5-18 ATS on grass. If you combine all this information with the information found in local newspaper websites, there is absolutely no reason why you cannot build up a nice bankroll in the preseason, just in time for the regular NFL year.
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I don't think Preseason football is as profitable as you think LT
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