It bears repeating that the model’s ATS Season Record is calculated on the final posted Margin of Victory (MOV) projection and the Vegas Insider consensus closing lines. Because of this, over the course of the season, there will be several pick-flips, when the line goes above or below the last posted MOV, as it did for Thursday game. The final posted MOV for that game was WAS by 3.8, at which time the line was WAS-3.5, and as this was below the MOV of 3.8, the pick at that time was obviously WAS -3.5. Just before the game, however, the line jumped to WAS -4 which held as the closing line, and as it was greater than 3.8, this flipped the model’s “pick” to NYG +4.
There will, during the season, be other pick-flips – most often to the model’s disadvantage in terms of its ATS record – but it’s still the best and most public or transparent way of grading the model’s reliability.
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The Limper Line – NFL 2021 – Week 2
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