[seaborneq]

Very few teams get it right.

[tmoible]

Should go to 1pts

[tmoible]

Bullshitttt

[seaborneq]

Its got to be different for each game and opponent and situation. Yet teams just go for 2 without realizing That there is more game left to be played. Or they all assume they are going to make it with the certainty of an extra point.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Very few teams get it right.

The most important factor which is never discussed is HOW GOOD IS YOUR TEAM AT 2 PT CONVERSIONS...

[Chi_archie]

I think many of the coaches believe that their super deluxe special 2 point conversion plays they have their back pocket will hit at 90%


they honestly believe it's almost a sure thing, when they call it

[seaborneq]

The most important factor which is never discussed is HOW GOOD IS YOUR TEAM AT 2 PT CONVERSIONS...

Its not a 50/50 proposition for any team so it shouldn’t be attempted until in ultimately has to be attempted. Extra points are still 95+% yet going for 2 is treated the same way at less than 50%. Its no excuse to go for two until it has to be done. It definitely a lose-lose proposition going for it in the middle of the game instead of chasing points.

[seaborneq]

I think many of the coaches believe that their super deluxe special 2 point conversion plays they have their back pocket will hit at 90%


they honestly believe it's almost a sure thing, when they call it

That is a human problem. No play works 90% of the time except the extra point.

[pologq]

as a coach i personally would not go for 2 unless i had to. teams think, "hey if i miss it i can make it up later" but that never works out.

[asiagambler]

Well they really should have got the conversion. Really really bad drop by Saint Brown

[seaborneq]

Well they really should have got the conversion. Really really bad drop by Saint Brown

Except it was slightly tipped. That is one of the risks of going for 2 also.

[Wrongside]

they believe in their players

[Brock Landers]

That is a human problem. No play works 90% of the time except the extra point.

Can't say I've ever seen the kansas city 4th and 1 swing pass in the flat ever fail

[floridagolfer]

The moral of the story? NFL coaches aren't as smart as they think they are.

[TommieGunshot]

I think many of the coaches believe that their super deluxe special 2 point conversion plays they have their back pocket will hit at 90%


they honestly believe it's almost a sure thing, when they call it

We know this must be completely wrong. If any coach believed they had anywhere close to a 90% chance, they would go for two every single time.

If the chance of making a two-point conversion is more than half of making a one-point kick, going for two maximizes the expected points a team will score. That is a huge factor, but not the only one. Quick search shows that two point conversions attempts are successful one two-point attempts around 49%, and one-point, around 94%. Teams should be going for two more often.

Obviously, expected points, is not nearly as important as expected wins. Not all points are equal, if a team scores a TD to tie the game, obviously kick to take the lead.

The biggest problem coaches have is thinking how great it is to get a tie. A tie after 60 minutes still means a less than 50% chance of winning. Down one, a coach can do either and it is fine. Down four or eight, absolutely go for two: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-po...-point_attempt

[seaborneq]

The most successful 2 points attempts are when you don’t have to have them. Blowouts and 1st quarter attempts seem to be higher than 50% and must have/playoff or 4th quarter attempts seem to hit at less than 25%. There is absolutely nothing easy about going for 2 in a tight game when you have to have it. Are there any circumstances where a team was successful when going for 2 with a win on the line instead of kicking an extra point for a tie to go into overtime?? Every situation that I remember the team that went for 2 and the win lost by 1. Game over.

[TommieGunshot]

must have/playoff or 4th quarter attempts seem to hit at less than 25%.

Do you have any meaningful data for this, or is something you just pulled out of your ass?

[seaborneq]

Do you have any meaningful data for this, or is something you just pulled out of your ass?

Im sure there is statical proof or some next gen stats that can prove im right or totally wrong. Im just going by my betting and watching games experience. But I’m sure if this is all that you got out of my post then you are indeed being an ass. Either confirm it or refute it.