Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Gronk among players being drafted too early 🏈
Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Gronk among players being drafted too early
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Tight end Rob Gronkowski, a future Hall of Famer, used to find his way onto this annual fantasy football "Do Not Draft" list because fantasy managers were a bit too eager to secure him to their teams, thinking that having the best player at a position meant everything. It surely did not. Indeed, Gronkowski used to be a fantastic, genuine talent, finishing as the No. 1 fantasy option at tight end four times, a truly dominant force when his body cooperated, handling a large target share, scoring myriad touchdowns and contributing to Super Bowl titles.
Things are hardly the same now. Gronkowski, now 31, was an ordinary, inefficient performer on the field in 2018, his body battered from years of heavy workloads and physical play -- and it's doubtful he simply sat on his couch, recuperating his body during his year off in 2019. Hey, it's quite a story as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reunite this talent with their new quarterback, Tom Brady, aiming to rekindle a successful Patriots partnership from the past, but fantasy managers have to see through this.
Gronkowski as a later-round choice, someone fantasy managers hope to catch the proverbial lightning in a bottle with, makes reasonable sense to me. However, that is not happening! He is going as a sixth-round choice in ESPN average live drafts, at this stage of his career and in this offense. And to that I say, good luck with that!
The truth rarely lies, so as we venture into the latest "Do Not Draft" list, we lead yet again with our ol' friend Gronkowski and try in vain to remind people we are not saying you should never draft these players, but that you should not draft them where the cost demands it. Look at ESPN ADP. Even back in the glory days, Gronkowski's value rarely seemed quite commensurate with his actual fantasy production, but even at some discount from his prime days, this remains the case today.
In a football sense, Gronkowski is neither young nor durable. He missed half of two of his previous six seasons, and quite a few other games in between, including three in his final season in New England. By Week 3, fantasy investors might not even get proper clarity on his updated health status before that Sunday morning on whether he is suiting up. Rostering Gronkowski in fantasy, in the latter seasons, meant using valuable bench space on another tight end on your roster, and that is surely the case in 2020. The Buccaneers want Gronkowski mostly for January's playoffs.
Meanwhile, never during Brady's tenure did his most electrifying target have to battle a wide receiver duo like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for targets. I believe Brady will be statistically excellent this season, and I like his value. Gronkowski used to boast a healthy target share, one this Tampa Bay offense simply cannot and should not regenerate. Why would it? They have the best wide receiver tandem, and oh, by the way, other tight ends (O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate) and running backs who catch passes, too.
As a result, sans the targets and the likelihood of a full campaign of games, Gronkowski seems unlikely to both provide TE1 numbers on a rate and volume basis. Gloss over the fact coach Bruce Arians has never featured tight ends in an offense and sure struggled to do so last season, but the weaponry at Brady's disposal is vast, so he does not need to. As it was, the Buccaneers were not among the top 10 in wide receiver targets with a quarterback who threw the ball so much, it was as if this was his ultimate goal. Brady is not going to throw as much as Jameis Winston, to his teammates or the opponent.
Ultimately, securing Gronkowski as your starting tight end is a risk, but the main issue is one needs to secure him in the first 10 rounds. Thanks to name value and dreams of another 1,000-yard season with double-digit touchdowns, he is somehow going ahead of Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry, each younger, faster and, well, I will leave out the part about durability here to protect myself. Still, Gronk is well outside my top 10 tight ends for good reasons, so use your sixth- or seventh-round selections on safer flex choices.
Here is a starting fantasy roster of others who, for various reasons, deserve placement on this analyst's "Do Not Draft" list:
Quarterback
Rushing certainly matters when it comes to quarterbacks, but rushing touchdowns are difficult, if not impossible, to repeat. Just ask the old Cam Newton. Even with an upgrade in receiving options, Bills starter Josh Allen is an average passer at best, and someone unlikely to return top-10 quarterback value. I lean on rushing quarterbacks in later rounds, but again, that is not where Allen is going.
Start with new Falcons savior Todd Gurley coming back to Georgia and go from there. Myriad leg issues limited Gurley in his final Rams season, and arthritis in his knee will continue to hold him back. Nobody denies how great Gurley was during 2017 and 2018, and few found the end zone better than he did in 2019, but the Falcons will soon realize they must monitor his touches closely, mostly with receptions. The touchdowns should regress. He is a flex option, not a safe RB2 deserving of a third-round choice.
For Baltimore's Mark Ingram, volume is likely to be a similar problem. He is older than Gurley and healthier, but fantasy managers run into problems when they assume touchdown totals carry over from year to year. Ingram scored 15 touchdowns last season. How awesome! Efficiency will surely drop from this remarkable level, he is not a pass-catcher and the team drafted his replacement. But other than those things, all is well. There are starters and rookies going later with far greater upside, even in Round 7.
With new Texans starter David Johnson, I guess I simply do not see what others do. Sure, this is someone with little competition for touches, but Johnson was so subpar last season in Arizona, struggling to stay healthy, indecisive on rushing attempts and in the open field and unable to break tackles. He is four seasons from his greatness, and rare is the running back who returns to prior levels of awesomeness. Really, that was 2016! Move on! I think David Johnson and the unrelated but similar Duke Johnson share the receptions and nobody in this backfield runs the football with effectiveness. Good luck, Deshaun Watson.
I actually like the value for most of the generally accepted top 25 or so wide receivers in fantasy this season. The position is so deep and, well, there are enough proven players for all. Still, in the middle rounds, there are issues. Not to pick on the Buffalo passing game, but Stefon Diggs in Round 7, when fantasy managers might still be acquiring expected starters, is a problem. This is not all about Josh Allen, and Buffalo actually threw more than Minnesota did last season, but there is no statistical ceiling here. Diggs was barely a WR3 in an efficient offense last season, and John Brown is the deep threat for Diggs' new team.
Durability is the main reason the once-electric A.J. Green makes the list, because he not only missed all the games last season, but he missed six or more games in two of the three prior ones. I like the new Cincinnati offense and star rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, but how can we presume Green's ankle injuries are no longer a problem as he turns 32? There is upside for the games he plays, but like others on this list, name value hardly jibes with the reality, and Round 7 has better choices. Give me all the shares of his teammate Tyler Boyd.
Deebo Samuel had a nice if inconsistent rookie season, and I see good things for his future, but the problem in 2020 is he had surgery for a Jones fracture in his left foot in June. The 49ers seem resigned to the fact he will not be ready for Week 1 of the regular season, and that alone is telling. Be realistic! This is a significant foot injury. Samuel as a 10th-round selection in ESPN ADP is not awful, because it is the second half of the draft and the time to take risks, but fantasy managers are rarely patient in waiting for players when they need bench spots.
Gronkowski seems like plenty for this position, but let us throw in Jared Cook of the Saints as well. Yes, he was a top-10 tight end last season, but only because of the nine touchdown catches and, well, that seems unlikely to continue since he had nine in the previous four seasons combined. Fantasy managers should target volume receivers, not the ones who "score touchdowns" as if that is some special, teachable and repeatable skill. At 33, Cook, who caught only 43 passes, might hold off rookie Adam Trautman for the entire season, but the Dayton product has size, speed and athleticism, so Cook might not.
I would take Tannehill all day before Watson. He has far better weapons.
About Cook, you have to look how the Saints TE's perform for the last few years. It's a position that whoever is playing will get TD's. For his draft position, he has good value. I would take him before any of the TB TE's because I know he will get red zone targets.
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Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Gronk among players being drafted too early 🏈
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