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Unlocking Baker Mayfield's Potential In 2020 🔑
Five ways to unlock Baker Mayfield's potential in 2020: How Kevin Stefanski can help
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
There is plenty of reason to believe Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield can have a big 2020 season -- even after a disappointing 2019 campaign.
After being the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and showing potential once he took over the starting job a few weeks into his rookie year, Mayfield managed to complete just 59.4% of his passes in Year 2, throwing just 22 touchdown passes compared to 21 interceptions. He looked shaky behind a poor offensive line, even with improved playmakers around him.
So why the sudden optimism for Mayfield in 2020? He has potentially his best set of offensive weapons, and another year of experience never hurts. But the big reason Mayfield might be able to turn it around and make a lot of noise this season is his new coach and the scheme he is bringing to Cleveland. Mayfield will be in a better position to succeed in Kevin Stefanski's system than he was last season under Freddie Kitchens.
Here are five ways that new scheme could lead to success for Mayfield and what we can expect from the Browns' QB under Stefanski.
The tight end impact in Stefanski's system
Under Stefanski, the Browns will be more tight-end heavy. The new Cleveland coach will get his bigs on the field and use the play-action pass game to get them involved. I expect the Browns to run the seams, corners and crossers, as well as schemed-up throws for Mayfield on leveled concepts. That means more two and three tight end sets to put stress on opposing defenses in their base personnel.
In 2019, Stefanski had a good deal of success targeting tight ends as the Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator. The Vikings ranked in the top five in total snaps out of multiple tight end personnel groupings -- 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), 13 (1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE) and 22 (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) and quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 81 passes to tight ends, which ranked No. 8 in the NFL. If Stefanski brings that same philosophy to Cleveland, it'd be a big jump from the 41 passes that Mayfield completed to tight ends in Kitchens' offense last year (No. 24).
But it also points to the upgrades Cleveland made this offseason at tight end, with free-agent signing Austin Hooper and rookie draftee Harrison Bryant. Hooper, who caught 75 passes with the Atlanta Falcons last year, is a nuanced route runner who can create leverage and separation or find open windows. And with the seam-stretching ability of Bryant to pair with the athletic traits of veteran David Njoku, the Browns are suddenly deep at the position. That will allow Stefanski to create coverage voids and defined reads off run-action for Mayfield to rip the ball to his tight ends.
Get Mayfield on the move in the boot game
Under Stefanski, Cousins led the NFL last season with 43 pass attempts on boot or designed rollouts. Mayfield? Only 10. That's going to change in 2020 with Stefanski calling the plays, as the three-level flood concept is a staple of his offense. With the anticipated volume for running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on outside zone carries, the boot concept with be there for Mayfield to find wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
Using NFL Next Gen Stats animation from the Vikings' win over the New York Giants last season, we can take a look at how the three-level flood concept works in Stefanski's system. With 21 personnel in the game (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR), which we will see often from Cleveland this year after the addition of fullback Andy Janovich, Cousins can show the ball on outside zone and boot outside of the pocket.
This creates the leveled read and an open window for Cousins to hit wide receiver Adam Thielen on the crosser. It clears out over the top, occupies the underneath defender and delivers a ball to space. That's stealing.
In 2019 with the Vikings, Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph all ranked in the top 15 on receptions off boot/designed rollouts. And with Stefanski bringing his boot concepts to Cleveland, we should expect the Browns to move the pocket often with Mayfield to feed the ball to his wide receivers and tight ends on intermediate throws.
More structure and scheme in the red zone
Mayfield registered a red zone QBR of 43.3 last season, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Part of that was the static call sheet Cleveland used inside the 20-yard line. There were far too many isolation throws and a lack of schemed concepts off play-action, which often led to Mayfield bailing outside of the pocket.
However, if we flip this forward and use Stefanski's red zone route tree, we can project how the Browns can lean on play-action and scheme to create both matchup wins and open targets for Mayfield in scoring position.
Cousins led the NFL in 2019 with eight play-action touchdown throws in the red zone. That includes the tight red zone throws (five yards or fewer to the goal line) out of jumbo sets. It was all about hitting the tight ends on quick pops and corners. After all, there's a reason Rudolph tied for the league lead with four touchdown grabs in that tight red zone area of the field. Stefanski also likes to target both split safety and single-high coverages by manipulating defenders to give his quarterback that window to attack.
Here's an example from the Vikings' win over the Philadelphia Eagles, as shown by NFL Next Gen Stats animation. Out of 21 personnel, with the wide receivers aligned tight to create a reduced formation, Minnesota releases Thielen on an over route to occupy the post safety. That generates a one-on-one for Diggs versus the cornerback. He runs a quick outside stem, before breaking back to the now-open middle of the field. It's an easy 11-yard TD for the Vikings.
Yes, that is just one example, but it shows us how personnel, formation and scheme (off play-action) can boost the production and efficiency for Mayfield in the red zone, given his quick release and anticipatory throwing style.
Get the running backs loose in the screen game
You can't forget about the screen game in Stefanski's offense when discussing how the Browns can create more production for Mayfield. Think shoot screens, slip screens and misdirection plays that get the ball to both Chubb and Hunt with blockers out in front.
Again we look to Minnesota's 2019 offense for context. Running back Dalvin Cook led the NFL last season with 298 yards receiving off screen passes. And on the 24 screen receptions he posted, which tied for first in the league, he averaged 12.42 yards per catch. Yes, the game speed of Cook comes into play here -- he can get rolling. But Stefanski's ability to dial up screen passes will create space for the Browns' running backs to move in the open field.
An example? Look at this 30-yard catch and run for Cook from the Vikings' win over the Dallas Cowboys last season, shown once more from NFL Next Gen Stats animation. Minnesota brought 12 personnel into the game with Cousins showing boot action off a Cook run look. That allows the Vikings to get the big boys out in front, with Cousins now in a position to make the throwback toss on the screen. It dresses up the concept off play-action and gets Cook the ball with room to make a play.
The more I look at the Vikings' film from the last season, it's pretty clear that Hunt and Chubb will be factors in the Browns' screen game under Stefanski. Together, they combined for 32 screen receptions in '19, and both backs have the open-field traits to produce when Stefanski sets them up off misdirection and play-action.
Scheme-up the 'shot' plays
The shot plays off play-action are a critical part of Stefanski's game plan, as Cousins completed 24 explosive play-action throws last season (20 yards or more). And, really, that meshes well with Mayfield's deep-ball ability. The Browns quarterback totaled 19 explosive play-action throws this past season, with Beckham and Landry combining for 14 of those receptions.
This is about scheming up opposing defenses to occupy/remove the top of the secondary, while still creating a vertical opportunity. And under Stefanski, that means more deep crossers/overs and post routes with the quarterback once again moving outside of the pocket.
Here's an example on Cousin's 54-yard touchdown throw to Diggs in a 2019 game versus the Denver Broncos. Off the run-action, Cousins gets almost all the way outside to the top of the numbers. And with the shallow crosser influencing the safety, there is no one home in the deep middle of the field to help on Diggs running the post. Take the shot.
With the explosive-play juice that Beckham brings to the field, we should look for Stefanski to script multiple shot plays for Mayfield this season. And that will put the Browns in a position to flip the field or throw the ball to the end zone.
Mayfield's outlook in 2020
To be clear, Stefanski's offense doesn't lead to high-volume throwing numbers. Cousins registered just four games with 300 or more yards passing in 2019 and just eight games with 30 or more pass attempts. Remember, there is a heavy run approach here, too. Let's not forget that Chubb finished second in the NFL in rushing with 1,494 yards in just his second season, so Cleveland will still lean on the run with Stefanski.
But Cousins did lead the NFL with 13 touchdown passes off play-action, which will be a vital part of Mayfield's game in 2020. And given that Mayfield has better traits than Cousins, including arm talent, movement skills and throw-on-the-run ability, the Browns quarterback should play at a much more efficient level this season in a system that creates pass-game opportunity with defined reads and open coverage voids.
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Originally Posted by USCPHILLYGUY
