[VegasProxy]

This team hasnt been talked about in awhile, and definitely not this season. And they have made some moves, while flying completely under the radar... not even getting a glance or a chance from bookmakers and bettors alike. But, they have been doing some interesting things, while trying to put a winning recipe together. Lets take a quick look at whats been happening:

Land a Defensive Coordinator who brought your team into a top 10 defense

Land an Offensive Coordinator who brought a team to a Super Bowl

Land a Coach that has been on the same coaching staff for 4 Super Bowl wins

If you haven't guessed the team I am talking about, its the Detroit Lions!

Even more moves have happened... Its like, somehow, the Head Coach is deciding to use the same offensive schemes as the team with the most Super Bowl wins in recent memory... The New England Patriots.
While following the defensive schemes of one of the most feared defenses in recent memory... The Seattle Seahawks
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Lets look at the offensive moves:
1. Get a BIG unmovable line to buy time for the QB and RB to make their move and eat time off the clock
2. Running back committee and an offensive coordinator to run and eat clock (off coord averaged 134yds game rushing, and brought Seahawks a Super Bowl)
3. Offensive catching TE's on each side of the line, giving different looks to confuse defense as to a run or pass. (Remember the tandem of Gronk and Hernandez?)
4. Slot receivers galore... while throwing in 1 or 2 long play receivers for a little "razzle-dazzle"
Its almost like this guy has had VIP unfettered access to Bill Bellechek and the Patriots playbook for 14 years.... Hey....Wait a second!!!!... (Sarcasm)

On defense, they have more than secured the pass rushing with their new defensive coordinator, as he has had a 47 year history of knowing how to pressure the QB, and how to blitz. Two of the Lions LB's alone in 2018 had 17 sacks between the two of them, thats the most the lions have had from LB since 1993! And this defensive coordinator did this in his first year while making the lions a TOP 10 DEFENSE, so with another year of coaching and scheming coming up, it should get even better. Their secondary was really good last year, and should stay on track, and hopefully improve.
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Now, lets look at their division:

Chicago Bears are the favorite to win their division. I can see why many think that, with an explosive QB and offense that seems to make plays out of nothing, and a defense led by Mack. But, the way I am seeing things, is they take a step back this year. While they surprised a lot of people last year, this is the year they come back down to earth... Last year they succeeded to win because they had a terribly easy schedule, played only 2 teams that made the playoffs, who faced each other in the Super Bowl, The Patriots and Rams... going 1-1 and only beating the SB losing Rams. This year they play 6 teams that made the playoffs, AND they get a SHORT WEEKS REST after playing a Sunday game vs the Giants, they have a THURSDAY GAME (Thanksgiving) ON THE ROAD versus (heres the river card) the Detroit Lions. And its gets better, from November 3rd till the November 28ths game, the Bears will have traveled over 6000 miles in that span as they have to travel from the east coast to the west coast and then back again. While they may start out undefeated thru week 3 by the end of the season, I can see them trying to stay around .500 with the schedule and travel they have.

Minnesota Vikings have made some moves, have some playmakers, and a defense.... But, I am NOT a fan of them signing Kirk Cousins, but I have as many playoffs wins as he does (0) and he has been to 1 single playoff game. Cousins record versus teams with 8 or more wins during the season is HORRENDOUS! How many teams with a winning record did Cousins lead his team to victory against last season? ... I'll give you a moment to think.... 1... 1 single team with a winning record, the Eagles. He seems to always disappoint, doesnt seem to want to win, and wont step up when he is needed to play his best. And YES, his stats lie... He is GREAT at beating BAD TEAMS, but, cant beat the good teams, and isnt consistent when facing good teams.... VIKING FAIL!

Green Bay Packers... On the verge of rebuilding imo, and should be another disappointing year for their fan base...

Should steal a game from the bears, steal a game from the vikings, and BOTH from the Packers... 4-2 Division record (Wait... the over/under on TOTAL WINS for the Lions is only 6.5!!, so they only need to win 3 games outside of their division??)

DETROIT LIONS TO WIN DIVISION +1000 (10-1) !!!!YES PLEASE!!!!
Detroit Lions OVER 6.5 WINS season -140 !!!YES PLEASE!!! (Im waiting to see if it goes to 7 so I get get closer to +even)
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Lets look at week #1 BEFORE we look into where they are going to get those other wins from for the OVER wins total.

Lions -1.5 vs Cardinals (48.5)

Lions implementing an eat the clock and drive offense
Cardinals starting a rookie QB in which like most NFL teams, will give him a basic playbook package, and ease him in as they are hoping he is their franchise hopeful. Dont want him injured, lots of running and quick passes.
Lions defense is trending upward
Cardinals defense is below average as a whole, but their PASS defense is among the best.

Cant see WHY this total is this high... all my numbers and stats show it will be LUCKY to eclipse 32 points, and the Lions taking this one 20-10

WEEK #1 Lions -1.5 and UNDER 48.5

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There we go, another win for them on a Season total of 6.5... Bringing them to 5 wins for the season... and need only 2 to go!

Remaining games: 9
Chargers
Eagles
Chiefs
Giants
Raiders
Cowboys
Redskins
Buccaneers
Broncos

So... to win this over bet, AND make the playoffs, AND win their division a solid 9-7 record should do it! So we would need four wins here... and cant WAIT till the lines come out where the Lions will be underdogs in some of these! So here are my WIN PREDICTIONS for them (barring any major injury, since Tom Savage is the backup to Stafford lol), and IN ORDER of strength!

Giants
Buccaneers
Raiders
Broncos
Redskins
Eagles
Chargers
Cowboys
Chiefs

Very winnable games by whats on paper with the top 4 vs Giants, Buccs, Raiders and Broncos.. and a little cushion with also winnable games vs Redskins and Eagles... So possibly shooting for a 11-5 or 10-6 record is even better! Which leads to the FINALE!!!:
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Looking at this year, as I always do starting in April, following moves, trades, free agency and the draft, I see this team as the MOST profitable for future betting with the biggest upside for hedging at the end. I had to ask myself these questions:

Would you bet a team thats 100-1 to win the SB if they could win their division or make the playoffs?
Would you bet a team thats 50-1 to win the conference championship if they could win the division or make the playoffs?

I AM!

Ill take a TOP 10 DEFENSE with an offense that is definitely looking better and better ANY DAY OF THE WEEK FOR THESE ODDS!

This is my sleeper team for this year!

Season total over 6.5 -140
Win division 10-1
Make Playoffs +375
Win Conference 50-1
Win SB 100-1

Good luck this season everyone! I hope you all have a nice and profitable year. I wish the season would start already!

2014 NFL 51-33-1 62.35%
2013 NFL 61-34 64.21% Finished 6th place in the LVH Supercontest

[Unwritten Law]

Interesting post and welcome aboard!

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice write up, but you base everything on a bunch of washed up has-been players and coaches with very questionable resume's. While their defense has improved and they do play a relatively soft schedule, they simply do not have the talent needed to compete with the other three teams in the NFC North. 9-7 does not cut it, and 9-7 is about as good as Detroit can hope for. Their season may come to a crashing end early, with a 5 game run against the Chargers, at Philly, Kansas City, at Green Bay after their bye week, and Minnesota. They still have 4 division games and a game against Dallas and at Mile High in December after that 5 game run.

[VegasProxy]

Interesting post and welcome aboard!

Thanks! Am a long time poster across the street, glad to contribute here as well!

[BigdaddyQH]

Thanks! Am a long time poster across the street, glad to contribute here as well!

Where is "across the street". Initials only should answer my question

[VegasProxy]

Where is "across the street". Initials only should answer my question

TRX and am NFLTrends there

[BigdaddyQH]

O.K. I used to know a few people in there, but I believe that they have all moved on.

[skoalclasic]

Thanks! Am a long time poster across the street, glad to contribute here as well!

don't listen to bigphony... biggest clown on this forum

[BigdaddyQH]

don't listen to bigphony... biggest clown on this forum

Go fukk yourself you pathetic worthless loser. No little s**t with 110 posts since 9/2017 is going to get away with that. Do you understand idiot, or do I have to palnt my boot squarely in your face?

Vegas, just ignore this wanna-be piece of caca. He is just another loser in here. Unfortunately they let a lot of losers like him in here. Any time you want to have a discussion about football, I will be glad to join.

[skoalclasic]

posts? what does the number of posts have to do with anything ahahaha, you area clown. Not one person on this website/forum likes you nor respects you.

you talk a big game and do not back it up. I've not once seen a ticket of yours. every game is a "too close to call on this one, no play" your a joke. learn your spot you pedo.

[VegasProxy]

I appreciate the bumps to the top of the page and the traffic... but, is insulting each other in this thread really necessary?

[skoalclasic]

get used to it with this guy on this forum. has nothing positive to say, ever.

[2daBank]

I agree w some the things you saying but I gotta take issue with some the wins you handing over to who I’m assuming is your squad?

Let’s start w how you so easily dismissed the packers as 2 wins and a team in decline. Packers have actually did good things on their defensive side of the ball as well and last I checked they still have that one guy playing qb, unless Rodgers gets hurt and doesn’t play the lions games there no chance in hell lions beat pack twice!! Bet your sweet ass on this one!! Yet you make this sound like a foregone conclusion, big reason I’m assuming you a lions fan here cause no impartial party would assume lions beat pack twice in a season!

You can have the splits w Chicago and minny, even call lions 3-3 in div but I think that the ceiling not the floor. Not a given they don’t get beat twice by one of those 3!!!

Out of div you seem very quick to give them a easy W in freaking Denver! again this some wishful fan thinking. Ain’t no damn way anyone in their right mind would be so quick to call that game a win, I suppose they could win it but it is not more than 30% likely at best they go into mile high and win a game, That gm in December?? Wow, forget the 30%, lions not winning that game, I’ll be happy to take that wager.

Far as raiders, giants, Bucs, your other “gimmie” wins it depends where those games are played. Very little chance they win in oakland,. Bucs May be better under areans and will be a game that could go either way at eithers home. Sure you can have giants I suppose.

No chance in hell lions go to philly and beat eagles:

They should beat skins wherever they play them (skins shoulda been on your “gimmie” list or they better be, lions will need this one).

I’m sure lions will steal one game at least against one the better teams ;wouldn’t shock me at all if they beat kc at home) but while you talking about cousins feasting on losing teams you seem to ignore Staffords record against winning teams, outside, in general!!


As I mentioned up top I do agree w a few of the things you say about what Detroit trying to build. When I went over win totals I thought lions would win more than 6.5, I don’t really tie money up in those and certainly not laying juice but I do think they much more likely to win 7-8 than they are 6 or less so no problem w that bet, think it cashes. Honestly no problem w any the long shot futures even if I don’t see it. I think they be right on edge of a playoff spot as they so often seem to be. Maybe they get some breaks and get in. They don’t have a chance in hell of advancing far against the loaded nfc but at those odds if they make it you made a good play. GL