Predicting contract terms for the NFL's top 2019 free agents

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NFL free agency opens up next week, and of course you want to know who's going to get paid. But don't you also want to know how much they're going to get paid?


If you answered "yes" to that question, this is the column for you. With the help of a handful of agents, personnel execs and salary-cap experts around the league, we put together a list of some of the top 2019 NFL free agents and predicted what their contracts could look like.


I did my best to list the most interesting ones, but if there's someone in whom you're interested and you don't see him on this list, hit me up on Twitter. I'll be around. Enjoy!




Le'Veon Bell, RB

2018 team: Steelers | Age: 27
Projected contract: Five years, $72.5 million with $22 million guaranteed
This averages $14.5 million per year, which would allow Bell to save some face after sitting out a season when the Steelers' franchise tag would have paid him about that much. The guarantee seems low, but what I'm trying to predict is actual guarantee at signing, not injury guarantees, which are tough to count on.


Watch the structure here. Bell has longed for a deal that makes him the highest-paid running back, and an average annual salary above Todd Gurley's $14.375 million would allow him to claim that. But sometimes that number ends up being a bit fluffy. Bell might be wise to do a shorter-term deal for something like two years, $36 million, where the second year is an option and he can be free again after pocketing $16 million in the first. But that doesn't seem to be what he has wanted all along.

Earl Thomas, S

2018 team: Seahawks | Age: 30

Projected contract: Four years, $52 million with $20 million guaranteed
Did you know Thomas doesn't turn 30 until May? This is a star player -- maybe a Hall of Fame player -- still in his prime. Coming off injury, yes, but he's said to be fully healthy, and a ton of teams are going to want to talk to him. From what I understand, a price tag like this would take him out of the desired price range of the Cowboys, the team with which everyone has been connecting him for two years now. Think about the Chiefs, Chargers and even the Rams as possible destinations for Thomas, who could be the biggest impact signing of the offseason.


Projected contract: Four years, $42 million with $18 million guaranteed
The market is too flooded with safeties at this point for Collins to do much better than this. He's well-regarded around the league, so I think he has a chance to do better than any of the safeties besides Thomas. But this deal puts his average annual salary under the $11.15 million he'd have made this year if the Giants had franchised him. So it gives the Giants a sense that maybe they valued him correctly.

Trey Flowers, DE

2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
Projected contract: Five years, $85 million with $35 million guaranteed
With all of the other top pass-rushers franchised, Flowers is the best one available and should see offers pour in. He has former defensive coordinators who are now head coaches in Miami and Detroit, and those guys know his value as a player who can move around the defensive line and cause trouble in opposing backfields. The early part of next week should be a very exciting time for Flowers.

Trent Brown, OT

2018 team: Patriots | Age: 26
Projected contract: Four years, $60 million with $30 million guaranteed
This is a bit lower than the deal fellow former Patriots left tackle Nate Soldersigned with the Giants last year, but it should be. Brown hasn't been a left tackle as long as Solder was. This is a cash-in deal for a player who had a big contract year and inflated his value significantly by helping with a Super Bowl run. Timing is everything in this life, kids.




Tyrann Mathieu, S

2018 team: Texans | Age: 27
Projected contract: Three years, $30 million with $12 million guaranteed
Honey Badger is looking to cash in after a strong season in Houston, where he played on a one-year, prove-it deal and ... well ... proved it. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up back in Houston, where he works well in tandem with the Texans' pass rush, and signs a shorter-term deal with a high average annual value that allows him to hit free agency again at age 29, even if he plays the whole thing out.

Kwon Alexander, LB

2018 team: Buccaneers | Age: 25
Projected contract: Four years, $44 million with $8 million guaranteed
Coming off a serious injury, Alexander isn't likely to get much guaranteed beyond the 2019 season. Watch for a contract that allows him to increase his guarantee in Year 2 if he shows himself to be healthy.

Tyrell Williams, WR

2018 team: Chargers | Age: 27
Projected contract: Four years, $48 million with $25 million guaranteed
It's a whopper of a deal for a guy who has never been a No. 1 wide receiver before, but (A) wide receiver prices got zany last year and (B) there aren't many good ones on this market. Williams profiles as a No. 1 due to his size and speed, and some team will spend to give him the opportunity he couldn't get on the Chargers' stacked depth chart.

Matt Paradis, C

2018 team: Broncos | Age: 29
Projected contract: Two years, $18 million with $12 million guaranteed
Another guy coming off serious injury, but the belle of the free-agent ball if you're looking for a center. A deal like this likely allows the team to get out after one year but guarantees Paradis a number that would place him atop the center market if he lasted only one year.




C.J. Mosley, LB

2018 team: Ravens | Age:27
Projected contract: Five years, $62.5 million with $22 million guaranteed
This would come in just above Luke Kuechly's deal with Carolina in total value, which accounts for inflation and the fact that Mosley got to the open market and Kuechly didn't. Watch out for fellow linebacker Anthony Barr to come in around this same range or maybe a little bit under it.
Ja'Wuan James, OT

2018 team: Dolphins | Age: 27
Projected contract: Four years, $40 million with $25 million guaranteed


A pretty sweet right tackle deal whose average annual salary comes in just above the $9.4 million fifth-year option he played on in 2018.




Tevin Coleman, RB

2018 team: Falcons | Age: 26
Projected contract: Four years, $28 million with $14 million guaranteed

A potential consolation prize for teams that wanted Le'Veon Bell but didn't get him, Coleman is of interest to a lot of teams as a big-play, do-everything back who comes out from Devonta Freeman's shadow to show what he can do as the lead back.




Za'Darius Smith, OLB

2018 team: Ravens | Age: 26
Projected contract: Three years, $36 million with $14 million guaranteed
A couple of people suggested something close to the Trent Murphy deal with Buffalo last year (three years, $22.5 million). But the need for pass-rushers is significant enough to inflate the prices of some of the second-tier guys, and Smith could do well as a result. Also watch for Dante Fowler Jr., who may have to take a one-year, prove-it deal for something like $12 million but could get into this same neighborhood if he gets more than one team interested.

Adam Humphries, WR

2018 team: Buccaneers | Age: 26
Projected contract: Three years, $30 million with $20 million guaranteed
The slot receiver market is pretty strong, and the way Humphries finished the season puts him more or less at the top of it. Watch out for Jamison Crowder to draft behind this deal and come in around $9 million per year, along the lines of Quincy Enunwa's deal with the Jets.


Bryce Callahan, CB

2018 team: Bears | Age:27
Projected contract: Three years, $27 million with $17 million guaranteed
If teams are going to spend on slot receivers, it makes sense that slot cornerbacks would be worth something as well. Callahan has been a valuable member of the Bears' strong secondary but could price himself out of their range.




Ronald Darby, CB

2018 team: Eagles | Age: 25
Projected contract: Three years, $36 million with $12 million guaranteed
I was stunned by how much I heard his name in Indianapolis as a player who was going to draw interest, especially since he's coming off a torn ACL. Watch out for a deal that allows the team out of it after a year in case he can't stay healthy. But enough teams will be in on Darby for him to do very well.

Mark Ingram, RB

2018 team: Saints | Age: 29
Projected contract: Three years, $12 million with $10 million guaranteed
I just think he ends up back with the Saints. The running back market is rarely great, and this year should be no exception. He knows he fits well in New Orleans. He knows the team is a Super Bowl contender. The Saints know him and like him and know how to use him. It's too good a fit to blow up, and I doubt Ingram finds the kind of deal on the open market that convinces him to leave behind such a good situation.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB

2018 team: Saints | Age: 26
Projected contract: Either one year, $5 million with up to $18 million in incentives OR two years, $37 million with $27 million guaranteed

The first is if Bridgewater can't find a job as a starter and has to go back to New Orleans (or elsewhere) as a backup. It's basically what he got from the Jets a year ago -- a backup salary with escalators in case he ends up starting. The second figure is in case he gets a starting job (say, in Miami). It's a little bit more than Keenum 2018 and a little bit behind where we expect Foles 2019 to end up.

Nick Foles, QB

2018 team: Eagles | Age: 30
Projected contract: Two years, $41 million with $27 million guaranteed
There's a chance the Jaguars play hardball with Foles on the contract, since they know they're really the only game in town for him. But you don't want to negotiate so hard that you end up with a starting quarterback who feels disrespected and underpaid. This is a little bit better than what Case Keenumgot from the Broncos last year and allows Foles to cash in big-time in a year or two if he turns out to be the franchise quarterback the Jaguars hope he will be.
Landon Collins, S

2018 team: Giants | Age: 25