There's no shortage of variables to consider. I've sorted through the most important ones since the Patriots' 13-3 victory over the Rams in Atlanta, putting together a primer on just how different these teams could appear when 2019 training camps open: Different by design
While re-signing your own players has long been a fundamental tenet of sound roster building, letting good-but-not-great ones leave as unrestricted free agents can carry upside as well. The NFL's system for compensatory draft choices makes it so.
The Rams and Patriots maximized the comp-pick system last offseason by letting high-profile unrestricted free agents leave, then replacing them outside the unrestricted free-agent market. The approach works best when the departing UFAs are good enough to command rich contracts, but not good enough to justify those contracts purely from a value standpoint.
The Rams could net two third-round compensatory draft choices in 2019 after letting Trumaine Johnson and Sammy Watkins leave as unrestricted free agents last offseason. The Patriots could net two third-rounders for letting Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler leave the same way. All four players fit the good-not-great template. They are not great values on their current deals.
Projections at overthecap.com suggest the two Super Bowl teams are the only ones in line to receive two third-round comp picks. If both teams take a similar approach this offseason, they could head into training camp without some familiar faces.
The 29-year-old tight end's reception against the Kansas City Chiefs for a 25-yard gain in the AFC Championship Game added 43 percentage points of win probability, the biggest one-play swing in the game. His 29-yard fourth-quarter grab against the Rams set up the Super Bowl's only touchdown. That play added 11 percentage points of win probability, making it the largest one-play contribution for either team.
"I could see New England trading for a tight end or drafting one late in the first round if Gronk did retire," an evaluator said.
Rams Andrew Whitworth, 37, is the NFL's oldest offensive lineman. He became the first offensive lineman to play in the NFL at age 37 or older since Jeff Saturday in 2012 (Philly's Jason Peters turned 37 last month, after the season). If Whitworth returns, he would become the first offensive lineman to play at age 38 or older since Casey Wiegmann (2011), Kevin Mawae (2009) and Andy McCollum (2008). Those three were centers, not left tackles.
"The Rams have the oldest tackle in the league and the oldest starting center [John Sullivan], so even if those guys return, you are asking them to defy the 'wall' age once again," an evaluator said. "Then they have to make a decision on [free-agent guard] Rodger Saffold, so a line that kind of got exposed by New England does have some question marks."
The Rams plan to replace Whitworth with 2018 third-round pick Joseph Noteboom when the time comes. Signing a guard to replace Saffold could make sense for them, on the assumption Saffold will command a high price in the market.
The impact of Gronk retiring could be at least as great even if he no longer projects as a dominant player on a weekly basis, especially with four New England wide receivers eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Julian Edelman can't catch every pass.
Coaching staff overhaul
Patriots The Patriots lost four assistants to AFC East rival Miami after the Dolphins hired Brian Flores as their new coach. Flores brought with him to Miami fellow New England assistants Chad O'Shea, Jerry Schuplinski and Josh Boyer. Defensive line coach Brendan Daly left to take the same job with Kansas City, reuniting him with new Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (the two had worked together in St. Louis).
"Losing the defensive playcaller and defensive line coach is the biggest part of that," a veteran coach from another team said. "They spend a lot of time calling the game complementary to the other phases, so it's important for Bill [Belichick] to find people who think like he thinks so the game can be called the way he wants it called. That will be the challenge on the defensive side."
Rams The Rams lost quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor to Cincinnati, but with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips returning for a 43rd NFL season, Los Angeles should enjoy greater coaching continuity than the Patriots, at least on paper. The coaching continuity New England does enjoy -- having the same elite head coach, elite offensive playcaller and elite quarterback year after year -- arguably bridges any divide.
Major free-agency changes are possible
The Patriots rank seventh and the Rams 14th in 2018 regular-season snaps from players without contracts for 2019. Those rankings flip -- the Rams go to fourth, the Patriots to 15th -- when 2018 salary-cap figures replace snaps in the equation.
Patriots The Patriots, like the Rams, avoid expensive UFAs from other teams, instead relying on the trade market and veteran players released by other teams. The strategy can promote roster turnover while arming teams with draft choices to select replacements or trade for them.
Trent Brown and Trey Flowers are playing within the framework of inexpensive rookie deals they signed as players drafted in the fourth (Flowers) and seventh (Brown) rounds.
"I would think with Flowers' versatility and level of play, he gets a deal before free agency," an evaluator said. "Brown is an interesting one. I'd probably [franchise] tag him if I had the flexibility. He was a seventh-round pick, so he would not be too upset with $15 million."
Another evaluator endorsed using the tag for Brown even though this evaluator thought the former San Francisco 49ers draft choice played poorly through some of the regular season before turning into a force in the postseason.
"I almost could see them franchise him one year, hold onto him as insurance, bring back [Isaiah] Wynn and make sure he is healthy, and then move on a year later," this evaluator said.
Patriots receivers Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson, Phillip Dorsett and the suspended Josh Gordon can all become free agents. They combined to play nearly 2,000 regular-season snaps, more than any other team's wide receivers scheduled to become free agents.
Rams The Rams had 16 players earning at least $5 million a year last season, five more than the Patriots had on their roster. Four of those 16 can become free agents: Ndamukong Suh, Lamarcus Joyner, Rodger Saffold and Dante Fowler Jr. All four could command more than the Rams could justify paying them.
"All those guys could help you load up on comp picks in 2020," an evaluator said. "They did franchise Joyner, but I think he is replaceable in the draft. Their other safety [John Johnson] they drafted in the third round a couple years ago and he is a pretty damn good player. Just trust your evaluation and draft some of these replacements."
The Rams were the only team to sign zero UFAs last offseason, a key variable in coming out ahead in the compensatory equation.
"The first part is just figuring out who you want to keep," this evaluator said. "I have a feeling they will try to target and trade in specific areas."
Could there be surprises?
"[The Rams'] tight ends really got owned at the line of scrimmage by New England," the evaluator said. "That could be a blueprint other teams look at in slowing some of their run game. Is there a tight end they could target? Would they target a veteran tackle if Whitworth retired, or do they just go with their guy [Noteboom]? They will be an interesting team to watch."
How much roster turnover is normal?
To calculate this, I looked at every team from 2001 to 2017 to see how many players logged snaps for the same team in the following season. This created a general NFL retention rate, excluding the rare players who missed full seasons to injuries. The overall retention rate since 2001 has been around 57 percent, but it has fallen over the past two seasons, especially for players who were not primary starters.
Of course, winning teams tend to keep a higher percentage of their players.
The 119 NFL teams that finished 11-5 or better from 2001 to 2017 brought back 65 percent of their players for the following season. Three of those 119 teams failed to bring back more than 50 percent, and all three were Patriots teams (the 2008, 2012 and 2015 teams brought back relatively low percentages the following years).
The Patriots were nearer the league average over the past couple of seasons, as were the Rams last offseason.
Why they should both be back
Both teams should have the same quarterbacks and offensive playcallers, which is where so much begins and ends in the NFL. Their coaching philosophies aren't changing.
The Patriots have proved year after year that they can replace supporting cast members and thrive as long as Belichick and Tom Brady are part of the equation.
The Rams are the latest upstart that will try to stay among the elite. They have pushed back against the narrative that their wheeling and dealing for players such as Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks has mortgaged their future. While those moves did cost them draft picks for 2019, the team is again flush with comp picks, same as the Patriots.
"The Rams have entered this [aggressive] mode the past two years and the owner has not yet moved into the new stadium, so I think it remains, 'Still keep it exciting, boys,'" an evaluator said. "With the Patriots, some of their guys like Jason McCourty may be back, or they give the suit to the next guy it fits. The new guys may have different last names, but the equipment manager can probably give them the same shirt size and shoulder pads."
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How the Patriots and Rams could look very different in 2019 🏆
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