So long, Super Bowl LIII. We're moving on to 2019. Our panel of ESPN NFL experts is taking an early look at the offseason, answering the biggest questions on free agency, the draft and the season ahead.
Our crew will answer one question a day over the next two weeks. Today's question: The Jags' Week 1 starter in 2019 will be ______________.
Who will be the Jaguars' starting QB in Week 1 next season?
Mike DiRocco, Jaguars reporter: Dwayne Haskins or another rookie draft pick. Jacksonville likely will sign a lower-tier veteran free agent and draft a quarterback. It's hard to see the Jaguars being willing to give up draft picks andpay the $25 million franchise tag number for Nick Foles, especially since they're stuck with $16.5 million in dead money for Blake Bortles. If Foles were a free agent, they'd more likely be in on him, but adding a veteran like Josh McCown(who spent a year in Cleveland with new Jags offensive coordinator John DeFilippo) and drafting a QB over a trade seems like the more prudent approach. Ohio State signal-caller Haskins was the Jaguars' top QB during their in-season evaluations.
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Nick Foles. The Jags could be in the mix for a first-round quarterback. But I like the fit of Foles in Jacksonville as an aggressive pocket thrower who also can target defenses off play-action, which is key to the Jags' game plan.
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Ryan Tannehill. Like most, I believe the Jaguars need to find a veteran who can compete with a first-round rookie quarterback. Once released by Miami -- which the front office has hinted at -- Tannehill will offer the Jaguars a conservative passer whose job it will be to "shorten" games for a terrific defense by avoiding turnovers and handing the ball off to Leonard Fournette as often as possible. Oh, and Tannehill will get to stay in Florida.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Nick Foles. It made sense to begin with, and adding DeFilippo gave it even more legs. This is an unusual buyer's market at quarterback, with more veterans seeking starting jobs than teams able to offer them, so it shouldn't cost Jacksonville an arm and a leg to extend Foles. And if the Eagles are intent on trading him (as opposed to letting him hit the market and risk him signing with an NFC East team), the Jags are a sufficiently far-away option to make them happy as well.
KC Joyner, fantasy writer: Teddy Bridgewater. The Jaguars have a strong analytics department and will know the value of the Parcells Rules for drafting quarterbacks. Bridgewater passed all of those guidelines in college and would be the perfect fit for an offense that needs a playmaker who also can play it safe when the defense and running game give him the lead.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Nick Foles. About a month ago, I thought the Jaguars would pursue Joe Flacco; Foles presents a better option for a team that wants a prototypical pocket passer. The Jaguars don't have much cap space, but I don't see many teams vying to give Foles a long-term deal, so the cost shouldn't get out of hand.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior writer: Nick Foles. This one has Foles written all over it. I just don't believe Jacksonville executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin will go with a rookie. I mean, they don't have forever here.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer:Drew Lock or another rookie draft pick. Under this scenario, the Jaguars will decide that moving on from Bortles is in the best interests of all parties, but they won't want to pay $18 million to $25 million per year for a veteran castoff who might not deliver a substantive upgrade or hope for the future. Trying to trade for Matthew Stafford was a long shot idea that also came to mind. It might be a Hail Mary, but if the Lions decided to start over, the Jaguars could view Stafford as the difference-making QB they have lacked.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Nick Foles. It's hard to believe that Coughlin would choose this moment to start over with a rookie quarterback. Nor would it make sense for coach Doug Marrone, entering a crucial third year of his tenure in Jacksonville, to sign off on that. Foles makes too much sense here, especially when you consider his connections to DeFilippo.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Nick Foles. The Jaguars are set to rework their roster, but that doesn't mean tear it down and start over. There's far too much talent to venture down that road, but a face-lift is needed. Foles is the most obvious option for the team to pursue, as he represents an upgrade over Bortles with the most recent run of production among available veteran signal-callers.
Jeremy Fowler, Steelers reporter: Raiders. The Jets are a trendy pick and should be players for Bell, but the Raiders check just about every box: They are well-stocked with cap space, lack quality running backs under the age of 30, need star power for the transition to Las Vegas and have general manager Mike Mayock, who once called Bell the game's best all-around back and a versatile model for modern ball carriers. And don't forget about the Eagles, who Bell believed wanted to trade for him at last year's deadline.
Bowen, NFL writer: Jets. Bell's rare talent is a fit with multiple teams. But I look at the enormous cap space in New York and the need to upgrade the running back position. Give quarterback Sam Darnold a high-percentage target in the passing game and utilize Bell's versatility.
Clay, fantasy writer: Raiders. Mayock and coach Jon Gruden have a ton of cap space with which to work, and adding a playmaker or two for Derek Carrwill be a priority. Incumbent backs Marshawn Lynch (32 years old) and Doug Martin (30) are both free agents, opening up space for Bell, who would immediately step in as a 20-plus touch player, while adding star power as the team prepares for its move to Las Vegas.
Graziano: Texans. The Jets and Raiders make sense for all of the reasons everyone here is saying, but what if Bell wants to play for a contender? Houston has won its division three out of the past four years, has an ascendant young quarterback in Deshaun Watson and a No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. Adding Bell to the mix -- the Texans have the cap space and can easily get out of Lamar Miller's deal -- would help them build the kind of dynamic offense you need to compete for the top seed in the AFC. They weren't that far off from it this season.
Joyner: Chiefs. This began as an effort for Bell to get more money, but it's also now personal to him. This combination will make him want to pursue a team that can pay him big dollars and give him a chance to get even with the Steelers. Kansas City could provide a perfect fit, as the Chiefs currently have the eighth-lowest cap hit number in 2019 and Spencer Ware is a free agent. Acquiring Bell might be just what Kansas City needs to jump through the currently open Super Bowl window.
Kimes: Jets. The Adam Gase hiring makes me a little apprehensive about picking New York; in Miami, Gase was quick to move on from players he felt didn't adhere to the team's "culture," and Bell might not fit his desired mold. But it makes sense from a financial and football perspective, given the Jets' copious cap space and their needs on offense.
Sando: Jets. I'm tempted to suggest the Baltimore Ravens as a great place for Bell to take out his frustrations if the market for him fails to materialize as hoped. The Jets probably make the most sense, however, because they need offensive help for Darnold and GM Mike Maccagnan could be facing a make-or-break season. It'll be interesting to see how much sway Gase has in setting up the team for the long term. He went away from bigger-name veteran players in his final year with Miami.
Seifert: Raiders. Bell seems desirous of a precedent-setting, free-agent contract. Can you think of another team more likely to pay a 27-year-old running back more money than anyone at his position has ever received? The Jets connection is a popular choice, but the Raiders are much more likely to outbid.
Yates: Jets. Maccagnan is equipped with close to $100 million in cap space and a need for immediate improvement of his roster. His most immediate path there is to develop Darnold and surround him with impressive talent. Bell wants a market-shattering contract, but that opportunity might not exist, even on the open market. The Jets still have plenty of resources to allocate and secure an offense-changing back. Who is the sneaky-good free agent teams should covet next month?
Bowen: Bryce Callahan, CB, Bears. The nickel corner is a starter in today's NFL. And Callahan's 2018 film is pretty solid. He can match routes inside of the numbers and play the ball at the point of attack. Plus, Callahan has a good feel for blitzing in substitution-package pressure schemes. At 27, Callahan's best fit is back in Chicago given the expected carryover of the defense with new coordinator Chuck Pagano. If Callahan hits the market, however, teams should line up for him.
Clay: Tre Boston, S, Cardinals. Remember the disrespect safeties dealt with during free agency last season? Boston was one of them, managing only a one-year, $500,000 contract with Arizona. After crushing it with the Chargers in 2017, Boston was terrific while playing 85 percent of the Cardinals' defensive snaps last season. The 26-year-old deserves a pay raise and a multiyear deal.
Graziano: Trey Flowers, DE, Patriots. He averages only seven sacks a season, so he's likely not going to command big pass-rusher money. But Flowers plays every position on the defensive line for the Patriots, and he's consistent in terms of pressuring quarterbacks, even if other guys are better at bringing them down.
Joyner: Josh Lambo, K, Jaguars. The margin for error in kicking is lower now for teams than at maybe any time in NFL history. With that in mind, many teams should have interest in Lambo, who ranks third in field goal percentage over the past two seasons (92.7 percent).
Kimes: Pierre Desir, CB, Colts. The 2018 season marked a breakout year for the 28-year-old defensive back, who bounced around the NFL before emerging as a starter in Indianapolis. After a consistent campaign that was capped by a strong performance in the playoffs, Desir should draw interest across the league.
Reid: Trey Flowers, DE, Patriots. Flowers plays all along the defensive line, is a high-motor guy and is good in the locker room. He won't come cheaply, but he's a really good football player.
Seifert: Matt Paradis, C, Broncos. Few on the outside appreciate how good Paradis has made himself. Every team wants a great left tackle, but they're almost impossible to find in free agency. Absent of that, a top-end center can transform an offensive line just as quickly.
Yates: Kerry Wynn, DE, Giants. The focus on pass-rushers this offseason will be via a robust free-agent class and top-tier group of draft prospects, but Wynn is a name to keep an eye on in the second wave of the open market. While his sack production has been minimal, he generates pressure as a rotational edge rusher and can contribute on special teams. Which team should be the early favorite to pick No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft?
Bowen: Dolphins. I've been through a coaching change as a player in the NFL, and that transition can be rough, especially for a team such as Miami with a limited roster, plus an expected change coming at quarterback. Look for the Dolphins to hit the reset button in 2019 as they turn over the locker room and build a new identity.
Clay: Dolphins. Quarterback uncertainty? Check. Overhauled coaching staff? Check. Holes on the offensive line? Check. Uninspiring offensive skill position players? Check. Multiple defensive voids (especially in the front seven)? Check. Minimal cap space? You guessed it -- check. This franchise has a lot of work to do this offseason to avoid plummeting in the standings.
Graziano: Cardinals ... again. Josh Rosen is starting over in Year 2 with a new coaching staff and a completely untested coach, with lots of work still to do to make the roster respectable. ... The Cardinals are a long ways off.
Joyner: Dolphins. Adam Gase was the subject of a lot of jokes in his first news conference with the Jets, but let's not forget that he got fired despite getting seven wins out of a Dolphins team that has three- or four-win-caliber talent. Add that to the transition woes inherent under a new coach, and the bottom is likely to drop out on Miami in 2019.
Reid: Cardinals. They are a complete mess. It's fair to question the overall direction of the organization, and the roster needs a ton of work. I mean, it wouldn't be surprising if Arizona had to start all over again in a couple of seasons.
Sando: Dolphins. They are willingly entering a rebuilding phase without a difference-making quarterback and without especially high draft choices. They were one of two teams (the Cardinals were the other) to finish 2018 with zero games in which both their offense and defense were at least average in ESPN's efficiency metrics. Miami lost five games by at least 17 points (only Arizona lost more of those, with six).
Seifert: Cardinals. Not enough people recognize the unusual approach the Cardinals are taking to dig out of their hole. They hired a failed college coach (Kliff Kingsbury) because they think he is a good playcaller, will start a quarterback (Rosen) who ranked last in the NFL in Total QBR and have a coaching staff hired by the general manager. Sometimes different is good, but this arrangement has a chance to bomb spectacularly.
Yates: Bengals. Cincinnati could find itself in a quarterback transition phase, and the defense has glaring holes. Patience shouldn't be a problem for Zac Taylor, as the Bengals just showed as much with Marvin Lewis to try to get over the top. Now, with Taylor in tow, the Bengals should face an honest reality about their franchise trajectory and allow him the time to build things back up. Who's your pick to be next season's MVP?
Bowen: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. I'm betting on Rodgers' talent here and a new offensive system under new coach Matt LaFleur that will mesh more with the modern passing game. Expect misdirection and play-action to generate open window throws for Rodgers while keeping him on schedule in the pocket to dice up opposing secondaries.
Clay: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Rodgers had a down year in 2018, but I expect him to bounce back in a big way. Each member of one of the league's top offensive lines is under contract, and Green Bay could add another reliable receiver opposite Davante Adams. LaFleur should add life to a stagnant offense.
Graziano: Drew Brees, QB, Saints. I'm all-in on the Saints, and there will be all kinds of pro-Brees sentiment next season after his loss to Mahomes in 2018.
Joyner: Andrew Luck, QB, Colts. He had a higher Total QBR than Mahomes during the second half of the season and did it with worse skill-position talent around him. If the Colts' front office closes that talent gap this offseason, Luck can outplay Mahomes -- and every other player in the league.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. After a season like the one he just had, there's reason to think Mahomes -- or the weapons around him -- could regress. But he's too talented and, more importantly, too consistent to bet against.
Reid: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. This one is a no-brainer. The scary thing is the 23-year-old should be even better next season. Well, the scary thing for the rest of the league, anyway.
Sando: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. He looks like the safest choice based on his age and talent in combination with his team's coaching and weapons.
Seifert: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. Lost in the weekly debate about the Seahawks' running emphasis was that Wilson had one of the best passing seasons of his career, with 35 touchdown passes, seven interceptions and 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt. If coach Pete Carroll shifts the ratio just a bit, Wilson is ready to put up MVP-type numbers.
Yates: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It has been a decade since this award was won by the same player in consecutive seasons, when Peyton Manning secured the honor in both 2008 and 2009. It stands to reason that Mahomes should improve as a player -- even if not statistically-- in 2019, just his second full season as a starter.
What's your way-too-early Super Bowl LIV pick?
Bowen: Chargers over Bears. Philip Rivers played lights-out football in 2018. With a balanced offense that features an old-school run game, plus the rising talent of wide receiver Mike Williams and a healthy tight end Hunter Henry, I expect Rivers to play at an MVP level next season. Pair that with a defense anchored by two bookend pass-rushers and a physical secondary? Yeah, I'll roll with L.A. to win the title over a Bears team that could have an even better defense than we saw in 2018.
Clay: Saints over Chiefs. I picked the Saints in 2018 because of their talented and deep group of starters on both sides of the ball. They came up just short, but with nearly every impact player still under contract for 2019, Drew Breesand friends are primed for another run.
What's your way-too-early Super Bowl LIV pick?
Bowen: Chargers over Bears. Philip Rivers played lights-out football in 2018. With a balanced offense that features an old-school run game, plus the rising talent of wide receiver Mike Williams and a healthy tight end Hunter Henry, I expect Rivers to play at an MVP level next season. Pair that with a defense anchored by two bookend pass-rushers and a physical secondary? Yeah, I'll roll with L.A. to win the title over a Bears team that could have an even better defense than we saw in 2018.
Clay: Saints over Chiefs. I picked the Saints in 2018 because of their talented and deep group of starters on both sides of the ball. They came up just short, but with nearly every impact player still under contract for 2019, Drew Breesand friends are primed for another run.
Reid: Chiefs over Rams. One name tells the story: Patrick Mahomes. We're witnessing the beginning of the Mahomes era in the NFL. In a quarterback league, the Chiefs have the best quarterback -- and he's about to begin a spectacular run. This is going to be so much fun.
Sando: Patriots over Seahawks. These teams are 1-2 in NFL win percentage since Russell Wilson's rookie season in 2012. New England is always in the mix. Seattle's ability to win 10 games during a rebuilding season served notice that Pete Carroll's team will be contending sooner rather than later. Minnesota is another interesting dark horse from the NFC.
Seifert: Chiefs over Saints. Andy Reid made a tough but necessary postseason change, hiring Spagnuolo to replace defensive coordinator Bob Sutton. If Spagnuolo can refresh the defensive scheme and combine with Reid's ever-evolving offense and special-teams coordinator Dave Toub's always excellent work, the Chiefs are ready to take the next step. Meanwhile, the Saints have demonstrated that they can come back stronger than ever after a postseason disappointment.
Yates: Patriots over Saints. The offseason blueprint for New Orleans is to keep the band together, which shouldn't be tough, given that the vast majority of its core is under contract for 2019. The Patriots have shown that this team's run of consistency is not set to expire anytime soon; they continue to set a standard of excellence.
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NFL experts predict: Answering 2019 offseason's biggest questions 🎯
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