5-9 in the playoffs after going 2-2 last week. I'm on the Rams moneyline at +117. Brady has played great in the underdog role but now the Patriots are clear favorites against a Rams team that struggled down the stretch. The Patriots offense has been strong the last 2 weeks, but that was against teams with inconsistent run defenses, the Rams run defense with Suh and Donald is strong, they shutdown the Saints running game most of the game. Brady gets the ball out quick so edge rushers struggle against him, but teams like the Giants have given him trouble with pressure up the middle and the Rams have Suh and Donald. Fowler was great against the Saints and he gives the Rams an edge rush they didn't have early in the year either.Wade Phillips has had success against Brady when with Denver and teams that have had success against Brady get pressure up the middle and play man coverage, the Ramshave a strong inside pass rush and 3 good corners.
The Rams offense struggled starting in the Bears game when the interior of their offensive line was hurt and Kupp out, but Sullivan and the offensive line is healthy now, and Reynolds looked good last week and has been starting for over a month. The Patriots defense had some success early against Mahomes because they were able to get consistent pressure up the middle, they won't likely be able to get any pressure up the middle in the Rams offense, and will have to blitz to pressure Goff. Goff had to beat the Saints since the running game wasn't working and he will have confidence coming in, Rams also just played in a dome and will be ready for the noise.