Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 13 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file). Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning. Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-5.5)
Total: 47 PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Houston Johnson: I really like the under 47.5 in this one. Not only does my raw projection come in at 44.3, but the matchups specifically between the Browns and Texans bode well for an under play. Cleveland's recent uptick offensively against the Chiefs, Falcons and a depleted Bengals team is my best guess for the overreaction in this total being so high. I'd like to see them prove it against a Texans defense that ranks top-five against the run and the pass.
Despite the Baker Mayfield talk week in and week out, the Browns' strength has actually been a rushing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per carry. Facing a Houston front that defends the run game so effectively will force Cleveland's 29th-ranked passing offense to try and beat them through the air.
For the Texans, their strength lies in Deshaun Watson picking apart secondaries. Houston currently sits sixth in the NFL in passing efficiency, but struggles to run the football effectively. Well, the Browns' strength defensively is against the pass (eighth best in the league). Both defenses should limit what each offense does best, and we're getting a number that is over three points high compared to my model. I'm grabbing the under.
Pick: Under 47.5
Sharp: The Browns defense has been very good taking away deep passes, ranking fifth, allowing just a 69 passer rating and holding opponents to a 40 percent success rate. But where Cleveland has struggled defensively is against shorter passes. On the season, the Browns are allowing 55 percent of short passes (within 15 air yards) to grade as successful, which is 23rd in the league. Watson is known for his deep bombs, but over the past two years on passes within 15 air yards, Watson has a 71 percent completion rate, averages 7.4 yards per attempt, has a 27-6 TD:INT ratio and a 55 percent success rate. And his 108 passer rating is fourth best in the NFL.
While I'm very high on what Freddie Kitchens is doing with Cleveland, I'm concerned the Browns have produced against three of the NFL's worst defenses (Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals) and now must face the NFL's No. 4 defense (No. 2 against the run), which will put a ton of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform offensively.
Total: 47 PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Indy Johnson: Cody Kessler is getting the start at quarterback, but it's hard for me to make a concrete adjustment in my projections for the switch from Blake Bortles. The Jaguars have been in disarray for over a month now, and it seems to me that it really can't get much worse than it has been. My number for the game is Colts -1.7, so at +4 I would typically be looking to back Jacksonville. At this point in the season, however, with a change as drastic as this one could potentially be at the quarterback position, I'd rather wait and see a game before I start getting involved in Jacksonville games in any way.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: After poor playcalling helped the Jaguars blow a 16-0 lead against the Steelers, Jacksonville finally fired its offensive coordinator and benched Bortles. It remains to be seen how they'll approach this game because they also will be without suspended Leonard Fournette this week. Games without Fournette are typically pass heavy, but with a new OC and a new QB, it's hard to say what this Jaguars offense will look like. The defense hasn't looked the same as 2017's version, and it's hard to not see the Colts emerging victorious, but I'm not eager to lay the points.
Total: 54.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Carolina Johnson: The Panthers were ahead of the NFC pack of mediocrity with their 6-2 record before dropping their past three games and joining the wild-card race. They still have to face the Saints twice in their final five games, so this matchup against Tampa Bay and next week's duel in Cleveland are massive for their playoff hopes. I anticipate a bounce-back here in Week 13, but my projections don't point to a bet.
I make Carolina -3.4, so the -3.5s and -3s in the market all line up pretty fairly. The total at 54.5 is a little high with my number coming in at 52.9, but that isn't a discrepancy worth betting either.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Carolina's offense has incredible home/road splits: In their past four road games, the Panthers offense has scored 17, 19, 21 and 21 points, compared to 27, 33, 36 and 42 in their past four at home. The Buccaneers defense is highly exploitable, and I wouldn't view them holding Nick Mullens to only nine points indicative of an improvement in defensive ability. The 49ers ran for 6.2 yards per carry, with Matt Breida rushing for 7.6 yards per carry, so Carolina's No. 4 run offense should have a ton of success on the ground. That could prove to be important, because there may be some weather in this game (wind or rain).
Jameis Winston posted a very strong 8.2 yards per attempt and a 56 percent success rate against a bad 49ers pass defense, but could be without DeSean Jackson (thumb).
Total: 49.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Atlanta Johnson: I was shocked to see Lamar Jackson open as a road favorite against the Falcons, but it didn't take long for the line to flip the other way this week. My number for the game is Atlanta -2.7, so at the current number the value has certainly diminished. The narrative will likely portray Atlanta as a team that isn't playing for anything going forward and easily could give up the rest of the way, after losing its last three games.
Unfortunately for us, it isn't that easy when it comes to betting on these games. Nobody can turn a profit via assumption of a team's motivation. Evidence of that, if nothing else, would be the fact the Falcons are actually the team that got immediately bet on this week after opening +2. It's a pass for me at this point in the week, but kudos to those that jumped on Atlanta when they were lined underdogs. That was an edge worth betting.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Ravens' No. 5 defense will be the most difficult stop unit the Falcons have faced this year. Atlanta is unable to run efficiently and is the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL, so the Falcons are likely to find themselves one-dimensional against Baltimore's top-10 pass rush. While I think the Falcons have the ability to be more explosive through the air against the Ravens (especially without starting SS Tony Jefferson), it is a high-variance opponent.
On the other side, Jackson gets his first road start. While there is some hesitancy, I'm higher on his rushing impact and I think he's very difficult to defend with limited reps to practice for. The Falcons did an admirable job stopping the running attack of the Cowboys, but they still lost that game at home. The Ravens rushing attack is more dangerous, as is their defense.
Total: 40 PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Buffalo Johnson: The Bills got a win over Jacksonville in Week 12, but Josh Allen's return wasn't anything to get too excited about. Allen threw for 160 yards and one touchdown on 8-for-19 passing. The Dolphins also had a quarterback return from injury in their matchup against Indianapolis. Ryan Tannehill was fairly efficient, throwing for 204 yards and two touchdowns on 17-of-25 passing, and most importantly he put Miami in a spot to ultimately win the game. I was hoping to get a short number on Miami that would be worth backing, but the 3.5-point spread is spot on with my projection.
The total at 40 is close to a play on the under with my number coming in at 37.8. At 41 this would definitely be a buy for me, so I'll be watching the market closely throughout the weekend in case it moves.
Pick: Lean under 40, bet at 41
Sharp: Miami put forth an impressive effort in Indianapolis and nearly emerged victorious. Falling a game below .500 and not coming off a bye as they were last week, it will be interesting to see the performance the Dolphins can muster. The Bills pass defense is No. 1 in the NFL, a far cry from the bottom-10 pass defense of the Colts last week. Buffalo swept this series last year and has lost by more than three points to the Dolphins just once in their past 10 meetings. It has been impressive seeing Sean McDermott get the Bills defense, despite playing with the NFL's second-worst offense, to produce as the No. 2 defense against the 10th-most difficult schedule of offenses.
After facing defenses of the Bears, Jets and Jaguars in consecutive weeks, the prospect of playing Miami's defense should raise the ceiling on the upside of the Bills offense.
Total: 44.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Chicago Johnson: From a sheer market perspective, this spread is a little head-scratching to me. The Giants wound up closing just four-point underdogs in Philadelphia at a few shops in Week 12, and now they are four-point underdogs at home to a Chase Daniel-led Bears team. The Giants almost won that game over the Eagles as well (and beat Tampa Bay and San Francisco the two games prior to that).
So why is there such an overreaction to this Bears team this week?
A Thanksgiving win in Detroit certainly doesn't hurt, but digging into that box score it doesn't appear Chicago was the better team. The Lions stacked the box and forced Daniel to beat them through the air. The Bears were only able to rush for 38 yards on the ground and Daniel had to throw 37 times. They only amassed 264 yards as a team and 16 points offensively. Matthew Stafford's pick-six and end-zone interception were the two things that really turned that football game. The Lions pass defense ranks 30th in the NFL, so Daniel probably should have been able to do more against one of the worst units in the league (and one that was blatantly selling out for the run).
The Giants are dramatically better against the pass, and one would imagine they take away the Bears rushing attack and put the game in Daniel's hands as well. My number is Giants +2.2, so there is a big enough discrepancy in the number on top of everything else that makes this an edge worth betting.
Pick: Giants +4
Sharp: New York's pass offense has been much more productive recently, but that has come against three bad pass defenses (49ers, Buccaneers and Eagles). When the Giants played top-12 pass defenses earlier this year, they scored just 13 and 15 points against the Redskins and Jaguars, respectively. Chicago's No. 2 pass defense will be huge shock to the system.
The Giants may have better success running the ball, but I think the pass rush and pass defense of the Bears will severely limit New York's output. On the other side, Daniel struggled to record 23 points last week against a familiar opponent with a terrible defense in Detroit. While having more rest to prepare for this game, it won't be easy for the Bears to produce offensively. I'm passing here.
Total: 45 PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Denver Johnson: Injuries have absolutely destroyed the Bengals' season, and Andy Dalton going down in Week 12 was likely the last straw. Quarterback Jeff Driskel hasn't made a start in his young career, but I followed him regularly in college and actually like him quite a bit. He isn't ever going to be a quarterback that leads a team to a Super Bowl, but he's going to grind and give his team an opportunity to win each week.
My number if Dalton was at quarterback (assuming other injuries are still a concern) is Broncos -2.6. The drop-off from Dalton to Driskel may ultimately be worth three points, but an argument could also be made he is an upgrade. This seems like a high-variance spot similar to Cody Kessler starting in Jacksonville, and I would prefer to wait and get a full game of data with Driskel under center before I get involved in any more Bengals games the rest of the year.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: From watching filmon Jeff Driskel, he has a good arm and is very good at improvising when plays break down. His performance in this respect was better than Dalton's late form and will be needed against a strong Broncos pass rush. When Driskel has been put under pressure this year, his 112.5 passer rating is No. 1 in the NFL and his 88 percent accuracy rating is No. 2. He also has taken sacks on just 8 percent of his pressured dropbacks, well below the NFL average of nearly 20 percent.
Denver's defense is much worse on the road than at home. While the Broncos have a good defense, the Bengals just finished playing the Browns, Ravens and Saints. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense is terrible. Opposing offenses went 17 straight drives without punting against them, a streak which extended over three games.
Total: 55.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent picked Detroit Johnson: My model has actually shown value on the Lions in recent weeks, and I typically see advantages in home underdogs of double-digits, but this number is actually pretty close to a fair line with the Rams laying -10 in Detroit. The Kerryon Johnson injury was especially problematic for the Lions, who had finally solidified at least some resemblance of a rushing game this season. He is currently questionable to play this Sunday, but if he doesn't go I would actually be inclined to back the Rams off of their bye week in a spot to reclaim the one-seed in the NFC now that the Saints lost their second game Thursday night in Dallas.
The formula to back the Rams is as follows: Johnson out for the Lions plus the line at -9.5 or better equals a bet on Los Angeles. I honestly think this one may get out of hand.
Pick: Rams at -9.5 or better
Sharp: The Lions played one of the NFL's easiest first-half schedules of opposing pass defenses, but find themselves in the midst of a stretch of the hardest second-half schedules in the league. With the lone exception of the Panthers' No. 27 pass defense (a game which the Lions won), they played (and lost to) four top-10 pass defenses in the Seahawks, Vikings and Bears twice. Now they face the No. 7 Rams, and they do so still without Golden Tate. The passing offense has really taken a step back without Tate. The reason why this is such a focus is because RB Kerryon Johnson is out again this week.
While LeGarrette Blount looked fine last game, there will be a big difference against the Rams. Blount should do fine, but the Rams will get up on the Lions much faster than did Chase Daniel's Bears offense. This number is high, and the back door could be open, but I'll pass.
Total: 43.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Green Bay Johnson: This number is quite extreme. I consider the Chargers a better football team than the Packers, but the Cardinals closed 14-point underdogs in Los Angeles in Week 12. So why are they getting 14 points again this week in Green Bay? While Arizona fields the worst offense in the NFL, it still has a defense that ranks ninth in opponent yards per play (despite an offense that can't stay on the field). It's tough to beat defenses this strong by more than two touchdowns in the NFL, no matter how bad their offense may be.
My projection for this game is Packers -11.3 with a total of 44.0. I've been waiting patiently after seeing a few sportsbooks move to +14.5, but I will be backing the ugly road underdog with the inflated number. It was just three weeks ago that this same Cardinals team was getting +16.5 in Kansas City and covered the big number. These two lines imply the Chiefs would be just 2.5-point favorites over the Packers on a neutral field, which I'm confident betting should not be the case.
Pick: Cardinals +14
Sharp: The Cardinals defense, a top-10 unit on the season, is trending poorly, losing to the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers out of their bye. But it's the way they lost to the Raiders and Chargers that is a concern. They allowed the Raiders to rack up a 61 percent success rate on the ground at 4.6 YPC and last week allowed the Chargers a 67 percent success rate on the ground at 5.9 YPC, despite Melvin Gordon getting injured. That's great news for Aaron Jones and the Packers rushing attack.
Over their past five games, the Packers have played four offenses that rank top-12 in passing efficiency, and lost to all of them (Rams, Patriots, Seahawks and Vikings). The lone team that ranked bottom-10 was the Dolphins, an easy Green Bay win. The Cardinals have the No. 31 pass offense. The Packers pass rush should cause problems for Josh Rosen, but there is no chance I'd lay two touchdowns with Green Bay right now.
Total: 55.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Kansas City Johnson: The Raiders continue to do Raiders things, and it was Week 12 that found Oakland backers sick to their stomachs after a late fumble-six the other way for a touchdown cost them a cover in Baltimore. The Raiders' lines have been extremely inflated, and I have made a conscious effort to stay away from their games in recent weeks (or at least play them for smaller amounts). This is another spot where getting a +15 is definitely perceived value, but with my raw number sitting at +12 it isn't such a stark discrepancy that I'm looking to rush to bet this.
The Chiefs outplayed the Rams in their Monday night battle everywhere but the turnover department, and with an extra week on their bye to prepare for this Oakland squad, two touchdowns is ultimately close enough to keep me away from siding with the Raiders altogether.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Raiders have been blown out by every good passing offense they have played, losing by at least 14 points in all four games. And three of the four were in Oakland. Now they must face the NFL's No. 1 passing offense.
The biggest problem for the Raiders defense is their 31st-ranked pass rush. After facing four top-15 pass rushes over the past five games, Patrick Mahomesshould have ample time to pick apart Oakland's secondary. I expect plenty of firepower from the Chiefs offense, but the Raiders offense is less dependable. Oakland should be able to run the ball on the NFL's worst run defense, but if the score margin is such that they are forced to pass, Derek Carr likely has trouble withstanding Kansas City's 10th-ranked pass rush.
Total: 40.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked New York Johnson: The Jets had multiple opportunities to squeeze a cover out of their matchup in Week 12 against New England, but to every sportsbook's chagrin, they were unable to pull it out. The difference between Sam Darnold and Josh McCown at quarterback is minimal, so similar to last week's game I do show a little bit of value on the underdog here. I was fortunate enough to stay away from New York, however, and this feels like another suboptimal spot for the Jets. The Titans are coming off of a division loss to the Texans and sit in a position that could reasonably be referred to as a "must-win" at this point with a 5-6 record in the AFC.
Interestingly enough, both Tennessee and New York give up 5.6 yards per play defensively. On the other side of the ball the Titans only gain 5.1 yards per play to the Jets' 5.0 (they rank 29th and 30th, respectively). These teams are eerily similar when it comes to their production this season. With home-field advantage and an edge on special teams, I make the Titans a 5.6-point favorite.
Again, I don't love the set up here for the Jets, but the value being offered in the current market is too much to pass up on. I made a half-sized wager on the Jets at +8.
Pick: Jets +8
Sharp: After back-to-back embarrassing road losses to the Colts and Texans, the Titans hope to find more success at home against a non-divisional opponent. Both of those offenses are much better when passing, and the Titans weakness is their passing defense. The Jets' No. 30 passing offense, should make the job easier for the Titans, but they have work to do with their offensive line and pass protection.
The Jets tend to let down after facing the Patriots: They have covered one of their past five games after playing the Patriots, including one of their past seven when playing on the road. While the Jets rank 15th in defensive efficiency, it has come against the third-easiest schedule in the league. The Titans are quite accustomed to playing tough defenses, facing the third-toughest schedule of opposing defenses.
Total: 49.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent picked New England Johnson: The Vikings are in a great spot after their win over Green Bay on Sunday night and are my favorite to earn the first wild-card spot in the NFC. With the way the Bears continue to play, this could wind up being a big deal if the first-round matchup for Minnesota is against the eventual NFC East representative instead of Chicago. This can obviously change dramatically through these next two weeks against New England and Seattle, with both of those games on the road. The Seahawks are playing well, so a nonconference game against the Patriots can't be overlooked.
My projection for the game is Minnesota +4.3 and 49.8 for the total. While +5 is slightly high, I wouldn't be putting any money on the Vikings unless a +7 were to pop up, which I don't envision happening. Even the +6s earlier this week have vanished in the market. I agree with the early move on the total from 48 to 48.5, but there isn't ultimately much value there, either.
Xavier Rhodes' absence could wind up making a big impact on the way this game is played, so I'll be following along during the game for opportunities to bet this game live.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Vikings likely won't be able to run the football here, ranking last in rush efficiency, even with Dalvin Cook back in the mix. Thus, Minnesota will probably have to throw the ball more frequently, especially with the Patriots ranking better against the run than the pass. And when Kirk Cousins drops back to pass, he'll face a Patriots defense with the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league. Cousins gets pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks to begin with, so I expect pressure often. Cousins does have the NFL's fourth-best passer rating when pressured.
Minnesota will be without Rhodes, who has missed only one game in the Vikings' past 42. I have concerns about the Vikings pass rush, which is quite strong, coupled with Tom Brady's current passer rating when blitzed, which is very bad this year.
Total: 46 PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Seattle Johnson: It seems like at this point in the season, half of the games feature a quarterback that wasn't expected to even be playing this season. San Francisco quarterback Nick Mullens was actually on the scout team to open the year. It makes the ability to value a replacement quarterback's impact on the game -- and specifically the point spread -- extremely important. To do this confidently with limited samples of data on these new, young quarterbacks is difficult. It feels like a cop out to just say I need to wait and see more before I get involved in some of these games, but we're talking about risking real money at the same time. There was a massive move on the 49ers just last week against Tampa Bay from +3 to +1, and the game wasn't close. It's better to be cautious in these situations then to try to make guesses, even if they are educated ones.
The Seahawks have been playing solid football, and all five of their losses are understandable. They fell short against the Broncos on the road to open the season and lost to the Bears on the road, to the Rams twice and to the Chargers. Every single one of those losses was by one possession. I think they deserve to be 8.9-point favorites, so the -10 is a little high. As you can tell, I'm not jumping for joy at the prospect of betting on Mullens in Seattle though. I'm passing. No need to force a wager here.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: After a massive road win in Carolina, the Seahawks are looking to keep things rolling at home against a 49ers team that put up just nine points against the lowly Bucs defense. Mullens' insertion at QB came at a perfect time for the 49ers, who played three of the five worst pass defenses in his starts (Raiders, Giants and Buccaneers). However, now they are facing the Seahawks' 10th-ranked pass defense.
Seattle's defense has been severely tested against four top-10 offenses in its past four games (Rams, Chargers, Packers and Panthers). It was a brutal stretch. Seattle has played just two bottom-half offenses since September, and they won away from Seattle convincingly 27-3 over the Raiders and 28-14 over the Lions. Look for similar results here.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Best Bets On Week 13 NFL Games
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-5.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins(-3.5)
Chicago Bears (-4.5) at New York Giants
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Kansas City Chiefs (-15) at Oakland Raiders
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans(-8)
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10)
Reply With Quote