NFL Week 12 early betting look: Deciphering the NFC playoff race, why you should never buy points

Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Is there a more beautiful transition in the NFL than the Rams-Chiefs Monday night extravaganza into a tripleheader on Thanksgiving Day to kick things off in Week 12? That was glorious. Thursday can't come soon enough.


My main takeaway from Week 11 is that teams that had opportunities to get something going and make a run at securing a playoff position completely failed. However, since they all failed at the same time, they are all still in this ambiguous hunt for wild-card mediocrity. I thought the Eagles and Falcons had the potential to make runs in the NFC. They have each lost two straight, but each sits only one game out of a wild-card spot. The Panthers, Redskins, Packers and Vikings all lost, so no team gained any ground outside of Seattle (which now sits at 5-5).


In the AFC, it is more of the same. The Titans, Bengals and Dolphins all had shots at improving to 6-4 and at least positioning themselves as a favorite to earn a wild-card spot. They all lost and sit 5-5. They're all tied for wild-card positions anyway. Mediocrity.


It is probably just a matter of time before certain teams separate themselves from the pack. It's my job to try to identify those teams in the coming weeks when there is value and to bet against the ones that could be classified as fraudulent or valued incorrectly. These opportunities will come with time. Patience is a virtue.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story

There wasn't a game in Week 11 that had a severely misleading final score once I dove into the box scores. I've mentioned in past columns that I want to steer clear of forced narratives for the sake of content. I want to bring to everyone's attention the numbers that do offer a different perspective that brings value to our betting process each week, but only when they actually exist.


While there wasn't anything too out of the ordinary this week, it is worth noting briefly that the wild Monday night game between the Chiefs and Rams was won by the less efficient team. Kansas City continues to impress, and the Chiefs outgained the Rams by almost a 100 yards and 1.85 yards per play. The minus-3 turnover margin and 13 penalties swung what could have otherwise been a fairly lopsided Chiefs performance.
Early line moves: Week 12

Move I agree with: The Washington Redskins opened +9 in Dallas this week and have since been bet down to +7.5. After the gruesome Alex Smith injury this past Sunday, oddsmakers were taking a seemingly blind guess about replacement Colt McCoy, who will be under center in Week 12. Well, they were wrong. There has been an immediate move on Washington, and I think we could still see it continue to move down. My projection for the game with McCoy under center is Dallas -6.4, which is just under a three-point drop-off from Smith.


I'm not in love with the Redskins as a team in general and wrote about their good fortune to this point in the season last week. I only made a smaller wager myself, but I do think it is now or never if you are leaning the Redskins' way. If you like the Dallas side, I anticipate you will be able to get a -7 or maybe even better later in the week.
Move I disagree with: The Jaguars opened -4 in Buffalo and have since been bet down to -3. My number lined up with the opener at -4.2. There are a ton of variables to consider here. The Jaguars have been in a steady decline and lost six games in a row, but it felt like a home matchup against the Steelers this past Sunday was their last hurrah -- an opportunity to make something of the otherwise disappointing season. For 56 minutes, it looked like exactly that. They led Pittsburgh 16-6 and found a way to give up two touchdowns in the final minutes to lose the game. It's going to be awfully tough to bounce back mentally from a loss like that, no matter the team. Jacksonville hasn't given us any reason to think it will.


The Bills had a bye week to prepare with their new secret weapon Matt Barkley. Coming off of a 41-10 win over the Jets in his first start of the year, however, Barkley is probably getting a little too much love in the current market. But can we possibly wager real dollars on this Jaguars team in this spot? I haven't, but if we were to see a -2.5 pop up at some point later in the week, I'll be jumping in (gulp).
Handicapper's toolbox: Buying points

I wrote about the occasions when betting teasers in the NFL can be profitableearlier this season, but I never discussed the actual act of buying direct points on spreads or totals. I was just minding my own business watching some college hoops on Monday morning when I saw a post come across my Twitter feed that recommended buying 6½ points in a football game. I figure now is probably as good a time as ever to set the record straight. This will be short and sweet: Don't do it.


It doesn't matter which league or which sport, you should not be buying points. The only times it was ever profitable to buy points in football was when key numbers like three and seven were still available for -120. There is a reason sportsbooks no longer let people buy on and off of three and seven for just -120. To buy a half point on or off of three will regularly be priced at -130 or -135 now, and seven is usually -125.


There is plenty of math involved in this scenario, and we have historical results to go by. It isn't worth your extra money. It's hard enough to beat -110 and win at least 52.38 percent of the time to break even. At -120, a bettor would have to be right 54.55 percent of the time to break even. Buying to -3 of -135? You'd better expect to be right 57.45 percent of the time -- and that's if you're just hoping to break even.


Whenever someone asks me about buying points, I try to reason with the person logically, and it usually helps. If you are worried about losing a wager over a half point, is it a bet you really like enough to be placing in the first place? I can assure everyone that your ROI will improve when you stop buying points.
Slate standout: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

The NFC wild-card race is going to be an intriguing contest of who can achieve status slightly above mediocrity. Check this out:


▪ Washington Redskins (now without Alex Smith): 6-4
▪ Carolina Panthers: 6-4
▪ Minnesota Vikings: 5-4-1
▪ Dallas Cowboys: 5-5
▪ Seattle Seahawks: 5-5
▪ Green Bay Packers: 4-5
▪ Philadelphia Eagles: 4-6
▪ Detroit Lions: 4-6
▪ Atlanta Falcons: 4-6

That's right -- there are nine teams that could easily earn a spot in this year's NFC playoffs (and three of these teams are still vying for a division crown).


I wanted to find a game in Week 12 that actually held some sort of significance in regard to the playoff race, and Packers-Vikings does just that. In fact, this is essentially a continuation of their first matchup this season, when they tied 29-29 after a scoreless overtime period in Green Bay.


Minnesota was a much better team in that game. Despite the final score showing 29-29, the Vikings outgained the Packers 7.1 yards per play to 5.0. The difference in the game was a Kirk Cousins interception and a Packers punt block for a touchdown. Green Bay played a cleaner game, but Minnesota was the more efficient team.


My projection for this game is a little lower than the current -3.5 in the market. Vikings -2.9 is my true line, but there isn't enough of a discrepancy to warrant a wager on the Packers, either. Neither team was able to run the football effectively in the first matchup, and it resulted in a total of 90 pass attempts in the game. I would anticipate both coaches preferring to make an impact in the ground game, rather than discarding it altogether. My number for the total is 46.4 anyway, so at 48.5 the under does have some of my interest.


Both 48 and 47 are semi-key numbers in a total lined in this range, so the under is the biggest edge being offered in this game, in my opinion.