NFL Betting: Will Ravens fly in AFC North?
07/19/2007 07:47 AM
By: Chance Harper
Baltimore, at 13-3, was one of the top clubs in the AFC last season, but exited quickly from the postseason. With one of the top defenses in the league, can Steve McNair and the offense lead the Ravens back into the playoffs this season? And what about Brady Quinn in Cleveland? Is he the answer to the longtime QB woes for the Browns?
Don’t call it a comeback. The NFL’s rust belt may be in for a revival, but that doesn’t mean the AFC North division was devoid of quality last year.
Will Ravens fly in AFC North?
They had arguably the best team in the league, along with the defending Super Bowl champions and one of the fashionable preseason picks to win last year’s big game. And then there was Cleveland. Three out of four ain’t bad.
The Baltimore Ravens (13-3 straight up, 10-6 against the spread in 2006) were easily the class of the division. They had the top defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency, and the addition of Steve McNair at quarterback breathed some desperately needed life into the Ravens offense. Add the unerring toe of Matt Stover, who missed just two of 30 field-goal attempts, and the Ravens were on the cusp of greatness last year.
Baltimore supporters hope the offense is ready to take the next step. Years of uncertainty at quarterback may have ended, but the running game failed the Ravens in 2006 as Jamal Lewis posted his third straight sub-par campaign. He’s been replaced by Buffalo castoff Willis McGahee, whose combination of power, agility and soft hands should allow Baltimore’s offense to be much more versatile and dangerous. Nothing short of a Super Bowl will be acceptable this season.
Folks in the Queen City may have felt that way last summer. But the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) were submarined by a combination of legal issues and poor pass defense. The latter problem was no surprise to sharp handicappers; this was a unit that gave up 223.4 yards per game through the air in 2005, but was bailed out by 31 interceptions, seven more than any other team in the NFL. Last year’s still-respectable 19 picks were not nearly enough to disguise a league-worst 238.6 passing yards allowed per game.
Things will get better in 2007. With the offensive side of things well in hand, the Bengals drafted for need and took prize cornerback Leon Hall from Michigan in the first round. Hall will pressure the enigmatic Deltha O’Neal for a starting job; either or both men will complement CB Johnathan Joseph in what is shaping up to be a breakout sophomore season. This remains a young defense with some question marks, but Cincinnati fans should like many of the answers they’ll get this year.
The situation is less settled in Steeltown. The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) are in flux; Mike Tomlin is the new head coach, taking over for Bill Cowher, and he’s promoted Bruce Arians from receivers coach to offensive coordinator. This will have a significant impact on both sides of the ball. While Cowher was a proponent of the 3-4 zone blitz, Tomlin had success last year with the Vikings by installing a Tampa 2 defense. Tomlin should get the most out of linebackers James Harrison (taking over for Joey Porter) on the right side and second-round pick LaMarr Woodley on the left.
The offense will also be going through a transition phase, one that could be marked by some growing pains. After years of running the ball under Ken Whisenhunt, now the head coach at Arizona, Arians will call on Ben Roethlisberger to launch the ball downfield. This might not be a good thing. Big Ben already saw his workload increase in 2006, throwing 201 more passes and, as a result, 14 more interceptions. Roethlisberger is looking forward to a consistent season after last year’s motorcycle crash and appendectomy, and he certainly displayed his outstanding passing skills at Miami-Ohio, but without a strong offensive line, Big Ben could sink instead of swim in 2007.
That leaves the Cleveland Browns (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS). There has been hope in the Dawg Pound ever since the end of the 2005 season, when general manager Phil Savage won the bitter front-office power struggle over ex-president John Collins. Savage made good at this year’s draft by not only getting his man, stud OL Joe Thomas from Wisconsin, but also trading up to nab a slipping Brady Quinn as the quarterback of the future.
The future could be just around the corner. Quinn is one of several candidates for the starting job, and is certainly the one with the most upside -- although being a public darling could compromise Quinn’s betting value once he does take over.
The defense is still a work in progress, and Kellen Winslow II might be back to square one after undergoing microfracture surgery in January. There have been enough non-Quinn improvements, though, for the Browns to make a quiet profit in the shadow of their AFC North brethren.
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Will Ravens fly in AFC North?
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